Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 12 (Week 10)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Browns +220, Ravens -275
- Spread: Browns +6.5 (-110), Ravens -6.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 38 (-110/-110)
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens will renew their AFC North rivalry when they meet in a matchup rife with postseason implications in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL schedule.
The Browns (+2800 Super Bowl odds) have survived injuries to Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb and are 5-3, the projected sixth seed in the AFC. The Ravens (+900 futures odds) lead their division and are the hottest team in football after a 37-3 win over the Seattle Seahawks last week.
Moneyline
The Ravens’ moneyline is the most viable play here. It doesn’t offer the best standalone value, but we don’t want to bet against them.
Through nine weeks of football, Baltimore leads the league with a +12.8 points per game differential, the only positive double-digit mark in the league.
The AFC North leaders have gotten it done on both sides of the football. Their offense ranks first in rushing yards per game (160.3) and sixth in points per game (26.6). They’re also excellent situationally and are sixth in both red zone touchdown scoring and third-down conversion percentage.
Lamar Jackson surged in the MVP race after another strong week against the Seahawks. His numbers won’t blow anyone away, nor are they reminiscent of his 2019 MVP season, but he’s second in Pro Football Focus’ rankings and responsible for 69.7% of the team’s total offense.
As great as Jackson and the offense have been, the defense distinguishes the team as a championship contender. It gives up the fewest points per game (13.8), averages the most sacks (3.9), allows the eighth-lowest third-down conversion percentage (34.8%), and gives up the fewest touchdowns per red zone trip.
The team as a whole is red-hot and has won four straight games by a combined score of 130-49.
The Browns are not in the same form as the Ravens, but they pounded the Arizona Cardinals in a 27-0 win last Sunday in Watson’s return to the lineup. He played a solid game and went 19/30 with 219 yards and two touchdowns, while Kareem Hunt added a touchdown on the ground.
Cleveland’s offense has been unwatchable at times but has still done enough to keep its head above water (22.6 points per game – 14th). That’s despite Watson and backup P.J. Walker ranking 22nd and 36th in PFF’s QB rankings.
One reason the Browns have survived is their ability to run the ball and control the clock. No team in the league has a higher average possession, and only two teams (the Ravens and Miami Dolphins) average more rushing yards.
Just like the Ravens, the Browns’ real strength is on defense. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has taken a group that allowed 22.4 points per game in 2022 and brought them down to 17.4, the third-best mark in the league. They also allow the fewest yards per game (234.8), the lowest third-down conversion percentage (26%), and are fourth in sacks per game.
As equivalent as these teams may seem across the board, the Ravens are far more explosive and have the best player in Jackson.
Point Spread
Although we are leaning towards the Ravens straight-up, the Browns’ spread is an enticing play.
Betting underdogs on the spread in low-total games has been a profitable approach. In games with projected points totals below 42, underdogs are 27-15-1 (64.3%) in 2023 and 164-109-5 (60.1%) since 2018, according to Bet Labs.
Baltimore is 6-3-1 ATS, while Cleveland is only 4-3-1 and 3-2 with Watson in the lineup. However, this game is more about the defense than anything.
The Ravens have only played one defense in the top 10 in points allowed. That team was the Browns (who lost 28-3) two weeks after Chubb was lost for the season and a week after Watson went out the first time. It was also the NFL debut of rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who threw for 121 yards and three interceptions.
Lamar has done a tremendous job running the Ravens’ offense and putting them in positions to win, but the Ravens’ blowouts have mostly come on the back of the defense. Cleveland needs to keep the score low to cover, but they are more than capable.
Over/Under
The Under went 83-52 (61.5%) in the first nine weeks of the season and is the most attractive pick in this Over/Under market.
Scoring is down across the league largely because teams have struggled in the red zone. Although the Browns and Ravens have not had those issues, they are both tremendous in the red zone on defense and are more than capable of making goal-line stops.
Another reason the under has been in favor is because teams are running the ball more. The Browns and Ravens are first and second in the league in rushing attempts per game and, because of that, put a ceiling on how many points they score.
The Ravens’ Under is 3-6, and the Browns’ Under is 4-4. This bet needs lots of defense to cash, but we believe that’s on the table in this game.
Player Prop
A player prop that caught our eye is Deshaun Watson Over 19.5 rushing yards (-110).
Despite dealing with injuries and exiting several games early, Watson has cashed the Over on this line in three of five games, including last week against the Cardinals.
We like this pick because of the pressure the Ravens consistently generate on opposing quarterbacks. Watson will have to be ready to bolt out of the pocket at a moment’s notice but has the speed to turn scrambles into large gains.
Thompson-Robinson also ran for 24 yards on just four carries against the Ravens when they met earlier this year. It’s a small line, and we believe Watson can deliver.
Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images
