Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 29 (Week 8)
- Time: 1:05 p.m. PT / 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Lumen Field, Seattle
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Seahawks -185, Browns +154
- Spread: Seahawks -3.5 (-112), Browns +3.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 38 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Cleveland Browns are heading to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seattle Seahawks in a clash between two playoff hopefuls in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL schedule.
The Seahawks are often an afterthought to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West, but they’re fifth among NFC teams in Super Bowl odds (+3500). Those futures odds are the same for the Browns, who own the seventh-best title price in the loaded AFC.
Both teams are coming off wins in Week 7 and could take the lead in their respective divisions with a win on Sunday.
Moneyline
This should be one of the most competitive matchups of the week, but despite the betting odds favoring the Seahawks, we believe the Browns’ moneyline is a viable play.
The Seahawks would be on a five-game win streak had they not squandered three red-zone trips in the second half alone against the Cincinnati Bengals two weeks ago. Instead, they’re 4-2 with a top-12 scoring offense (24 PPG) and scoring defense (19.7 PPG) and the NFL’s eighth-best average scoring differential (+4.3), four spots ahead of the Browns (+3.2).
Despite their overall positive marks, the Seahawks don’t stand out in many categories. They’re 13th in passing yards per game (224.2) and 20th in rushing yards per game (106), and while they turn it over just once per game (tied for sixth-fewest), they surrender more yards per game to penalties (64.5) than any team in the NFL.
Geno Smith is ninth in Pro Football Focus’ weekly quarterback rankings and tied for 17th in NFL MVP odds (+15000), but the reigning Comeback Player of the Year has as many touchdowns (4) as interceptions (4) in his last four games, and his decision-making in the red zone has been questionable at best.
Enter Myles Garrett and the Browns. Garrett is coming off one of the best weeks of his career, in which he amassed nine tackles, a tackle for a loss, two sacks, two forced fumbles and a blocked field goal in Cleveland’s 39-38 win over the Indianapolis Colts.
The Browns’ defense was on a record-setting pace until Sunday, but they still lead the league in yards allowed per game (243) and rank 10th in points allowed per game (19.2). They also forced a season-high four turnovers and recovered a fumble in the end zone in last week’s win.
Deshaun Watson briefly returned to the lineup for the first time in almost a month but left early in the first quarter with a shoulder injury, which will sideline him for Sunday’s contest, too. In his place, backup P.J. Walker (15-of-32, 178 yards, INT) led his team to victory despite a subpar performance.
The Browns’ offense is clearly their weak point – ranking 15th in points per game (22.3) – but has not looked much worse without Watson or Nick Chubb available to play. If they can hold off a Seahawks’ pass rush that ranks second in sacks per game (3.8), they should have a decent chance to win outright.
Point Spread
While we like the Browns’ chances to score an upset victory, our favorite play is betting them against the spread, especially with a field goal plus the hook in our favor.
There are a couple of reasons we’re leaning towards the Browns (3-3 ATS). The first is their proven ability to survive with mediocre to outright terrible quarterback play. The second is their game-wrecking defensive line, led by Garrett.
The Seahawks (4-2 ATS) own the fifth-worst offensive line in football, per PFF, and Smith has become increasingly flustered in the pocket. Combine that with the running game failing to gain traction and DK Metcalf battling injury, and Seattle cuts the figure of the proverbial deer in headlights more than the underdog Browns.
Over/Under
One of the most enticing plays among the major markets is Under 38 points.
The Browns might have scored 39 points last week, but they cannot (nor should they want to) get into a shootout with the Seahawks. The combination of Walker, Watson and third-string Dorian Thompson-Robinson ranks 31st in passing yards per game (171.7) and is responsible for twice as many turnovers (10) as total touchdowns (five) through six games.
Seattle has lots of offensive potential but has only scored 33 points over the last two weeks combined and an average of 19 over the last three.
Cleveland has the second-highest average time of possession (33:24) and will look to dominate the trenches on both sides. Seattle is used to playing without the ball but is not overly explosive and is facing one of the stingiest defenses in the league, which should lead to a low-scoring affair.
Player Prop
A strong player prop in this matchup is Kareem Hunt as an anytime touchdown scorer (+165).
A free agent earlier in the season, Hunt re-signed with the Browns following Chubb’s injury and has scored three touchdowns in the last two weeks. He’s also gone from five carries in each of his first two appearances to 22 combined in the last two weeks.
The Browns need to dominate the ground game to win and/or cover, and Hunt is becoming a large part of that plan.
The Seahawks’ defense has the worst red-zone touchdown percentage allowed (81.8%) and is allowing one rushing touchdown per game, tied for the 10th-most in the league. Look for Hunt to cash an opportunity near the goal line.
