Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
- When: Monday, Sept. 18 (Week 2)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Browns -130, Steelers +110
- Spread: Browns -2 (-110), Steelers +2 (-110)
- Over/Under: 38 points (-110/-110)
Odds from Bet365 Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Pittsburgh Steelers look to shake off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers when they square off against the 1-0 Cleveland Browns in the second of two Monday Night Football games this week.
The Steelers didn’t come close to covering their +2.5-point spread and lost by 23. The Browns, meanwhile, beat the stuffing out of the Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points as +1 underdogs at home.
With just one week of the 2023 NFL schedule in the books, we don’t have a ton of stats to analyze. The Browns made an impression on the bookmakers after they dissected the Bengals, with Cleveland’s futures odds shortening across the board.
Regarding the odds for the next Super Bowl winner, the Browns’ odds shortened to +2200 while the Steelers grew to +5000. The Browns, Bengals and Ravens are neck-and-neck to win the NFC North at +200, while the Steelers are the odd man out at +750.
Moneyline
We have the underdog Steelers as one of our playable moneyline wagers in Week 2.
The Browns looked great in Week 1, but the Bengals didn’t put up much of a fight. Additionally, weather played a factor, and QB Joe Burrow was dealing with a calf injury. Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith each had four hits on the quarterback, while the former also earned a sack and a tackle for loss.
We don’t expect Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett to suffer quite as much.
We’re not taking anything away from the Browns’ defense, but don’t expect such success each week from a team many consider average. We also can’t overlook the Steelers’ defense, with T.J. Watt lurking in a strong group of linemen.
There is little doubt the Steelers show up at primetime, as they’re on a 20-game winning streak on Monday Night Football at home, according to TribLive. The Steelers are also on a 19-0 winning streak against the Browns at home.
Furthermore, the Browns haven’t started a season 2-0 since the 1990s.
Point Spread
The Steelers under Tomlin have one of the best records against the point spread as underdogs since 2007, and we’re banking on Pittsburgh to keep that trend alive on Monday.
Pittsburgh’s ATS results are even better as underdogs at home at 15-5-3 since Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh. No other team or coach in the NFL can match that cover rate. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS as home dogs since 2021, while the Browns were 1-2 as road favorites over the same period.
Watt is another reason to trust the Steelers in Week 2 after a monster afternoon last Sunday. In his season debut, Watt showed why he is a former Defensive Player of the Year. He had three sacks, a tackle for a loss, a forced fumble and five hits on Purdy.
Another reason to fade Cleveland: The Browns are down left tackle Jack Conkin, and right tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. is questionable. If Willis can’t suit up, Watt could be in line for another colossal game and make life miserable for Browns’ quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Over/Under
Considering the talent on both defenses, with a former DPOY in Watt and a potential future winner in Garrett, the Under is the safer play for this division battle.
The total is low at 38 points. Watson will be running for his life, Watt will feast, and running back Nick Chubb will struggle to find time and space.
Keeping a quarterback uncomfortable is effective in disrupting an entire team’s game plan, and that will be Pittsburgh’s path to victory.
On the other side of the field, the Steelers’ offense will continue to struggle after losing their best wide receiver, Diontae Johnson, to injury. Calvin Austin III caught six balls after Johnson went down but only managed 37 yards. Expect the Steelers to continue their conservative approach and not let Pickett loose just yet.
Furthermore, the Steelers and Browns games from Week 1 both fell Under the total, which aligns with their previous season’s results against the total.
Player Prop
The best player prop for Sunday’s divisional showdown is for the dual-threat Watson to put in some work on the ground and go Over 24.5 yards rushing.
There are several good reasons to trust Watson here, not the least of which is his average of 31.4 yards per game as a member of the Browns and a 31.1 mark all-time. It’s not as if he’s lost a step and proved it with 45 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 1.
You might think facing off against Watt would be an automatic fade of Watson, but the additional pressure should help cash this rushing prop. With Watt up in Watson’s face, he must scramble to survive.
With odds at -110 and a total below his season average, Watson is worth a bet on Monday.
The San Francisco 49ers have a forecast 66% chance to win against The Kansas City Chiefs with a spread of -5.0/5.0 and an over/under of 50.5. The San Francisco 49ers are 0 – 0 against The Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023-24 Season.— Sunday, February 11th San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
