Buccaneers vs. Falcons Week 5 TNF: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Buccaneers are 1-0 on the road this season and have a plus-19 point differential through four games, which is tied for fourth-best in the NFC. Tampa Bay’s offense has averaged 30 points per game in its three victories, while the defense ranks ninth in the NFL in points-against per game (19.5).

The Bucs match up well against the Falcons, too. Tampa Bay tends to give up yards but not points, while Atlanta tends to move the ball without scoring very much. The Buccaneers are 18th in yards against per game (335.3) but have surrendered just eight touchdowns, including only one through the air.

The Falcons have just five TDs this season despite averaging 309.3 yards per game. They’ve relied heavily on Koo, who has 33 of the team’s 75 points.

Atlanta’s defense has a league-low four sacks, setting up Mayfield for another big game in Tampa Bay’s ninth-ranked passing offense.

As such, we’re backing the Buccaneers to emerge with the road win on Thursday.

Atlanta is 1-3 against a -1.5 spread this year, and its lone win was last week’s two-point victory over the Saints.

However, it doesn’t make much sense to wager on the Buccaneers +1.5 if you believe they will win outright, as they are highly unlikely to lose by only one point.

If you’re backing the Falcons, taking them to cover -1.5 is a no-brainer, even with their penchant for close games. That’s because the -110 odds on the spread are more lucrative than the -130 odds on the moneyline.

We’ll back Tampa Bay to cover +1.5. If you’re worried about the Bucs not winning outright, take the alternate spread of +3.5, especially as a same-game parlay leg.

These teams tend to play close, high-scoring games, especially in Atlanta’s domed stadium. They have combined for at least 44 points in their past eight games played in the Peach State, including last year’s 29-25 Buccaneers win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Over has hit in three of the past four games in this series. Atlanta may struggle to score touchdowns, but Koo’s accuracy and Mayfield’s exceptional efficiency should help hit the Over (barely).

Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165)

Godwin is tied with teammate Mike Evans for most receiving touchdowns on Tampa Bay (three) and has scored in three of four games this year.

He’s also the team’s leading receiver, which bodes well for his matchup against Atlanta’s exploitable secondary.

Godwin has torched the Falcons in his career for 998 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 13 games. There’s the potential for both Evans (+135) and Godwin (+170) to find pay dirt Thursday, but Godwin’s plus odds are more lucrative, making him a better value play.

• Check out our full Week 5 TNF prop bets.

Tyler Allgeier Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Allgeier has at least 32 rushing yards in three of his four games this year and was more effective than backfield mate Bijan Robinson last week, outrushing him 60 yards to 28 yards in Atlanta’s win.

Allgeier’s rushing + receiving yards prop bet is also worth targeting, but this one is more straightforward. He is averaging 41 rushing yards per game this year and 69.8 rushing yards in four career games against the Buccaneers.

Robinson is an exceptional back but had just seven rushing attempts last week, suggesting Allgeier is taking on a larger role in Atlanta’s backfield.

The Falcons will try to run the ball against Tampa Bay, as they are a run-oriented team and the Bucs are allowing 131.5 rushing yards per game. Allgeier would only need six carries at his current pace (6.1 yards per carry) for this prop to hit, which seems like a safe bet.

• Moneyline: Buccaneers (+110). The Buccaneers are playing like one of the NFC’s best teams. While there’s the potential for a letdown on the road on a short week, Mayfield & Co. have been better than the Falcons and should return home with a win.
• Spread: Buccaneers +1.5 (-105). If Tampa Bay wins outright it will also cover +1.5. That said, an alternate spread of +3.5 is our preferred play.
• Total: Over 43.5 Points (-110). Even with Atlanta’s inefficient offense, two of its four games have exceeded this number. The Bucs have scored at least 20 points in three of their four games, so look for this total to squeak over.
• Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165). Godwin has nine touchdowns in 13 career games against the Falcons and three in four games this season, so look for him to find the end zone on Thursday.
• Tyler Allgeier Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-113). Allgeier’s role is growing and he should be able to exploit Tampa Bay’s middling run defense. This prop could hit in the first half.

Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images.