Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 21
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +235, Lions -290
- Spread: Buccaneers +6.5 (-112), Lions -6.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-105/-115)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Detroit Lions will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday with a trip to the NFC Championship on the line.
The Lions rolled through the 2023-24 NFL schedule and clinched the No. 3 seed in the playoffs.
Since the Green Bay Packers defeated the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round, Detroit gets a second home playoff game. The Lions won their first postseason contest since 1992 last week by edging the Los Angeles Rams 24-23.
The Buccaneers’ path to the playoffs was quite different. Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South, the worst division in the NFL, in Week 18 with a 9-8 record. However, they took advantage of their playoff berth and dominated the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 on Monday.
Despite Tampa Bay’s convincing first-round victory, bookmakers have listed them as a touchdown underdog against Detroit.
The Lions are 9/1 in the Super Bowl odds market, ranking behind four teams. The Buccaneers are getting less respect in the futures market at 33/1 – tied for last.
Moneyline
The moneyline heavily favors the Lions.
The heavy juice makes us look to the spread for a more viable betting option, but we fully believe Detroit will win this game. Dan Campbell has done an excellent job changing the Lions’ culture since he took over in 2021.
The Lions’ offense has catalyzed the team’s success this year. Jared Goff is having a career season and posting massive numbers. He finished second in passing yards (4,575), fourth in touchdowns (30) and 11th in QBR (60.3)
Goff has plentiful offensive weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. He has also made big throws in high-leverage positions all season.
Detroit’s offense should be an issue for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers’ defense was fantastic against the Eagles, but their secondary has been questionable.
Despite having first-team All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. at safety, Tampa Bay is still 29th in passing yards allowed. The lone bright spot for Philadelphia in its Wild Card game was DeVonta Smith, who erupted for eight catches and 148 yards.
If the Buccaneers have holes in their secondary, Goff will find them on Sunday.
Point Spread
The Lions are 6.5-point favorites on the spread, but we’re taking the points with Tampa Bay.
While we expect Detroit to win, it’s often hard to prevail by a significant margin in the playoffs, and Tampa Bay is finding its offensive stride.
These two teams clashed in Week 6 at Raymond James Stadium, and the Buccaneers lost 20-6.
Yet, this was before Tampa Bay went on its late-season run to make the playoffs. Baker Mayfield was pivotal for the Buccaneers’ success down the stretch, and he is coming off a career game against the Eagles.
Mayfield was 22 of 36 passing for 337 yards and three touchdowns in the win. He became the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in a playoff game, doing something that not even the great Tom Brady had done.
The Lions’ secondary is also among the worst in the NFL, ranking two spots better than Tampa Bay. Mayfield will have opportunities to throw, and he hasn’t given us a reason to think he won’t execute.
The Buccaneers started fast against Philadelphia, which will be essential on Sunday. The team that scored first was undefeated in all six Wild Card games, and that trend could continue this weekend.
Over/Under
The Over/Under is 48.5, and we’re leaning Under on this high total.
It may seem counterintuitive to take an Under when we have two solid passing offenses combined with troublesome secondaries. Yet, multiple stats are pointing to an Under.
Touchdowns are why games surpass the total, but field goals could play a significant role in this contest. Tampa Bay struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone against the Eagles, which has been a trend throughout the season.
The Buccaneers are 30th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring six points just 44.9% of the time.
Detroit is the second-best touchdown-scoring team in the red zone, but it has a big challenge with Tampa Bay’s defense.
The Buccaneers have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL. Todd Bowles’ team allows opponents to drive the field, but they have been excellent at tightening up inside the 20-yard line.
The Lions’ red zone defense wasn’t the best in the regular season, but they were fantastic against the Rams.
Los Angeles was in the red zone three times last week and failed to score a single touchdown on these possessions. Detroit’s stops in the red zone were the most significant factor in advancing.
Player Prop
A playable prop bet is Baker Mayfield Over 253.5 passing yards (-114).
For Tampa Bay to win on Sunday, Mayfield must throw the football. The Lions have forced teams to pass because of their stout front seven.
Aidan Hutchinson leads the second-best rushing defense in the NFL. Detroit allows under 90 yards per game on the ground, so running the ball could be challenging for the Bucs.
To stay competitive, Tampa Bay will need to throw with Mayfield.
Mayfield has exceeded this line in four of his past five games, topping 300 yards in three of those contests.
He only averaged 5.6 yards per completion in his first game against the Lions this season, but he is much more comfortable in the offense now.
The Lions allowed Matthew Stafford to pass for 367 yards last week. Mayfield is capable of posting similar numbers against their shaky secondary.
