Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 19 (Week 11)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET / 4:05 p.m. PT
- Location: Levi’s Stadium (San Francisco)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +490, 49ers -670
- Spread: Buccaneers +11.5 (-105), 49ers -11.5 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) have the biggest challenge of their 2023 NFL schedule on Sunday at the 49ers (6-3).
San Francisco rebounded with a vengeance against Jacksonville in Week 10, winning 34-3, ending a three-game losing streak.
The Buccaneers are in contention to win the NFC South, but they’re not on the same level as the 49ers.
Tampa Bay is a double-digit road underdog, but they have momentum following their 20-6 win over the Titans.
The Buccaneers have a lot of potential behind Baker Mayfield, but they must be flawless on Sunday to have a chance of beating San Francisco.
The 49ers have a significant advantage in the trenches, and dominance in this area typically leads to wins in the NFL.
The 49ers are one of the favorites to make a run in the playoffs, as their Super Bowl odds are the second-shortest at 5/1. Tampa Bay’s chances aren’t nearly as favorable to win the big game, with a 110/1 price in the futures market.
Moneyline
The Niners are huge moneyline favorites.
While we believe the 49ers will win the game, a -670 price isn’t ideal as a straight bet or in a parlay. The 49ers’ hefty moneyline price makes the points a more desirable betting option.
For the Buccaneers to have a chance on Sunday, they must run the ball effectively. Yards on the ground will be tough to come by against one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL.
Tampa Bay can’t win a shootout with the 49ers, so their best bet is keeping San Francisco off the field.
This is much easier said than done against one of the NFL’s best defensive fronts, which added Chase Young at the trade deadline.
Young’s presence makes an already stacked group behind Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Nick Bosa much better.
The Buccaneers have done their best to counter a slew of injuries upfront, but they don’t have a lot of talent on the offensive line.
Rookie guard Cody Mauch will anchor this group in the coming seasons, but he isn’t ready to lead yet.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line will be a priority in the offseason as they will be outmatched by the league’s best front seven on Sunday.
The 49ers allow just 83 rushing yards per game, the fourth-best in the NFL. We expect a minimal performance from Rachaad White and San Francisco to cruise to victory.
Point Spread
The 49ers are an 11.5-point favorite in the spread market, a massive number to lay.
Winning and covering in the NFL are different things, but it’s hard to bet against the 49ers in this spot.
San Francisco is 5-4 against the spread, but they have been dealt big numbers all season. Tampa Bay has performed well against the spread (6-3), but it isn’t swaying us from laying the points with the 49ers.
San Francisco lost three straight games heading into their Week 9 bye, and these three weeks were the ideal time to bet against the 49ers.
Kyle Shanahan’s message paid off in the bye week based on their blowout win last Sunday against the Jaguars.
The offense wasn’t exceptional for San Francisco against the Jaguars, but they forced four turnovers and made Trevor Lawrence look uncomfortable.
Mayfield has outplayed Lawrence this season, but this isn’t an excellent spot for Tampa Bay to score points. San Francisco should bring a lot of pressure, leading to errant throws and limited points for the Buccaneers.
If Tampa Bay doesn’t match San Francisco’s scoring early, their chances of covering aren’t very high. We recommend backing the home team, even with the massive point margin.
Over/Under
The Over/Under is 41.5, one of our favorite numbers to lean Under in the NFL.
The 41.5-point total is low enough to make bettors believe it can be surpassed, but it still takes a lot of scoring. We don’t expect a significant number of points on Sunday.
Opponents have lit up the Buccaneers defense throughout the year, and this should occur on Sunday between red zones.
As we saw last week, Christian McCaffrey is due for his typical performance, where he approached 150 scrimmage yards.
However, the Buccaneers have been stout in the red zone. They probably won’t play flawlessly against a high-powered offense like the 49ers, but they can force some field goals.
A few wins in the red zone gives this game a great chance of staying Under the total. Further, we don’t anticipate the Buccaneers scoring much in this contest.
Tampa Bay is in the bottom third of the NFL in points per game. They’re scoring less than 20 points per contest on the season, and San Francisco will be one of the best defenses they have seen in 2023.
There are very few flaws amongst the group. We expect Tampa Bay to score more than Jacksonville did last week, but it won’t be enough for this game to exceed 41.5 points.
Player Prop
A playable prop bet is Rachaad White Under 45.5 rushing yards.
White is a massive focal point of the Buccaneers’ offense. He has only averaged 3.3 yards per carry, but they lean on him in the run and passing game.
The Buccaneers will have to abandon the run game early in this contest. We were looking at Baker Mayfield’s passing prop but decided to avoid a lofty line.
White has exceeded this total in two straight games, but it was against the Texans and Titans. Neither team has proved reputable against the run to the same degree as the 49ers.
A similar matchup for White to the 49ers was when they faced the Eagles earlier in the season. He carried the ball 14 times for 38 yards, and his total was the same.
White will approach this total based on bulk, but it won’t be enough to surpass his line.
Look for the 49ers to stop the run, forcing Tampa Bay to lean on the pass.
Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images
