Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
- When: Sunday, Oct. 1 (Week 4)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +145, Saints -175
- Spread: Buccaneers +3.5 (-112), Saints -3.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 40 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
It was only about two and a half years ago that Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers battled Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in the NFL playoffs. A lot has changed since then.
Brady and Brees, two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, have since retired. Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr are now the starting quarterbacks for the Buccaneers and Saints, respectively.
However, a shoulder injury will prevent Carr from playing in this Week 4 matchup, so Jameis Winston will be in line to take his place. New Orleans has stated that it has high confidence in Winston, who has a 6-4 record for the Saints as a starter.
The winner of this divisional matchup will improve to an unexpected 3-1 record to start the season. Can Baker keep Tampa Bay rolling even after a tough Monday Night Football loss to the Philadelphia Eagles? Or will Winston step in and deliver another win for New Orleans?
Moneyline
Even with Winston under center, the Saints are still a slight moneyline favorite (-175) against the Buccanneers at home on Sunday.
New Orleans should be 3-0, but blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead to the Green Bay Packers last week and lost by one point. Perhaps if Carr had played the whole game, that wouldn’t have happened.
Can the Saints bounce back this week with Winston? He went 10-of-16 for 101 yards last week in relief of Carr and has an elite defense behind him. New Orleans is also getting ace running back Alvin Kamara back from his three-game suspension to start the year.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is coming off a short week. Mayfield has surpassed expectations this year but could struggle against the Saints’ stingy secondary.
If the Bucs are forced to rely on their running game, which ranks 27th in rushing yards per game and dead-last in rushing yards per attempt, they will struggle to move the ball and score. Winston won’t have to be a world-beater for New Orleans. If he limits his mistakes, the Saints should squeak this one out at home.
Point Spread
New Orleans should win, but can it cover the 3.5-point spread against a Tampa Bay team that has proven surprisingly feisty?
The hook makes this spread a bit tricky, but the Saints should still be able to cover. They have more weapons on offense (Kamara, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, Taysom Hill), better defense and are playing at home.
Even though New Orleans squeaked by inferior teams like the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans, the offense gets a major boost this week with Kamara back. Look for him to help the Saints cover against a middle-of-the-road Bucs team.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this NFC South game is currently at 40 points, which is among the lowest point totals in Week 4.
New Orleans and Tampa Bay have a combined 1-5 Over record through the first three weeks of the season. This should not come as much of a surprise, as the Saints have posted 20 points just once, with 16 and 17 points in the other two games. Further, the Bucs have scored 27, 20 and 11 points in their three games.
Tampa Bay’s two highest-scoring games came against the Minnesota Vikings (20) and Chicago Bears (27), two of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Bucs only managed 11 points against a strong Eagles defense, though, which could be a cause for concern.
Tampa Bay could have a hard time scoring against New Orleans, which has a top-tier secondary led by Tyrann Mathieu, Alontae Taylor and Marshon Lattimore. They’re not going to make things easy for Mayfield on Sunday.
Additionally, the Bucs’ backfield (Rachaad White and Sean Tucker) is one of the weakest in the league, so it likely won’t be able to gain any significant momentum on the ground.
Tampa Bay will be lucky to score two touchdowns in this game, and the Saints could struggle a bit with Winston running the offense. The Under has some appeal in this spot.
Player Prop
Baker Mayfield is coming off his worst game of the season after throwing for just 146 yards against Philadelphia on Monday. It was the first time he faced a tough defense this season, and he immediately reverted to the underwhelming Mayfield of old.
Currently, Mayfield’s passing yards player prop line is at 217.5, which seems to indicate that he could experience similar issues against New Orleans’ rock-solid secondary.
However, that passing yards line for Mayfield still seems to be a bit too high. He’s only exceeded that number once so far despite playing two of the worst defenses in the league.
While Mayfield eclipsed this line against the Bears, that performance is the obvious outlier so far. Chicago just surrendered 41 points to the Kansas City Chiefs, after all, and can’t seem to stop anybody.
With Mayfield facing a much tougher defense this week, expect him to hit the Under on this prop for the third time in four games.
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Image
