Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets
- Date: Monday, Nov. 6 (Week 9)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Chargers -184, Jets +154
- Spread: Chargers -3.5 (-106), Jets +3.5 (-114)
- Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-105/-115)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Los Angeles Chargers will travel across the country to face the New York Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 9 of the 2023 NFL schedule.
The Chargers have stuck to the precedent they set in recent years and are doing less with more. Despite having a highly talented roster and elite quarterback, they’re only 3-4 and +4200 in the Super Bowl market. On the other side, the Jets are 4-3 and have +8500 futures odds.
Moneyline
It’s hard to believe we’re at this point with the Chargers, but we believe the Jets’ moneyline is the most viable play of the two options.
That’s right, it smells like an upset is brewing. The Jets might only be a game over .500, but two of their wins impressively came against the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles. They’ve also won three straight and split their two primetime matchups.
Quarterback Zach Wilson has more interceptions (23) than touchdowns (20) in his professional career, but he’s kicked the turnover bug lately and has thrown just one interception in his last five games. He’s only managed three touchdowns during that stretch, yet he’s looked more comfortable going through his progressions and has kept the Jets in games instead of pushing them out of them.
The Jets’ defense is the reason they’ve been able to win the games they have and are contending for a playoff spot. New York has allowed just 15 points per game during its three-game win streak and held six of its seven opponents this season to 23 points or fewer.
The one area of weakness for the Jets’ defense is against the run. Despite allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards (184.4) and forcing the fourth-most turnovers (1.9) per game, they’ve given up the second-most rushing yards to opponents (144.9 YPG).
The Chargers are more talented than the Jets top-to-bottom, especially with Aaron Rodgers sidelined, which makes their inability to win marquee matchups flat-out inexcusable.
With the pang of a blown 27-0 lead in the first round of the playoffs hanging over its head, L.A. started its season by blowing a fourth-quarter lead at home against the Miami Dolphins. Since then, the Chargers’ only wins are against the Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears, who are a combined 9-15.
It hasn’t all been Justin Herbert’s fault: he’s averaging 270 passing yards per game and has 13 touchdowns to just four interceptions, and he ranks fourth in QBR (69.1) despite failing to get his team above .500.
That said, the Monday Night Football stage has not been kind to the 2020 first-round pick. After throwing seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first two appearances, he’s averaged 233.3 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last three MNF games (the Chargers went 2-1).
The Bolts’ defense isn’t to be ignored in the disappointing equation. It ranks sixth against the run (93.4 YPG) but 24th in points allowed per game (24) and has surrendered more passing yards per game (297.4) than any team in the league.
Point Spread
Even though an upset could be in the cards, the safer and stronger play is the Jets’ spread at +3.5.
Since 2018, underdogs in games with totals below 42 points are 162-104-6 (61%) against the spread. That figure jumps to 25-10-2 (71.4%) in 2023 alone. The Jets are also 4-2-1 ATS with all but the push coming as an underdog, while the Chargers are 3-4 ATS.
Wilson needs to continue to take care of the football for the Jets to have a chance at winning and covering. The Jets’ defense has spent the second-most time on the field per game, excluding overtime, and the last thing that unit needs is to be on the field for even longer to guard against the Chargers’ trove of weapons.
The Jets also need to be better on third down. Their 23% conversion rate is by far the worst in the league, while the Chargers rank 12th at 41.1%. Surprisingly, Los Angeles also allows third-down conversions on 37.7% of opponents’ tries (13th), whereas the Jets give up a 40% success rate (T-19th).
The Jets have momentum and a strong identity. They’re at home and in primetime, where they’ve thrived and the Chargers have struggled. They can lose by a field goal and still cover – and there’s a decent chance they win this game outright.
Over/Under
Death, taxes and betting the Under during the 2023 NFL season.
The Under has hit in 59.8% of all games entering this Sunday’s slate. It’s also 19-7 this season, 60-29 over the past two seasons in primetime games, and 9-1 on Monday Night football this season.
The Jets and Chargers are a combined 9-5 to the Under thus far. Since we’re expecting the defense of the Jets to win out, it only makes sense that we follow the primetime trend and lean towards fewer points being scored on Monday.
Player Prop
A player prop that stands out to us is Austin Ekeler Over 31.5 receiving yards (-114).
The Jets’ pass defense is so stout that the Chargers must find alternative methods to move the football. Ekeler is excellent at picking up yards after the catch and can be used on screens and checkdowns as an extension of the running game.
The 28-year-old has managed 177 receiving yards in four games (44.3 per game) and eclipsed this prop total three times, including last week when he brought in seven passes for 94 yards and a touchdown.
The receiving threat of Keenan Allen and Herbert’s arm talent will keep the secondary playing deep. Ekeler should come open underneath numerous times and put up strong numbers.
Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images
