Chargers vs. Cardinals Week 7 MNF: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Chargers are almost the antithesis of what we expected them to be in their first season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. They’ve gone from one of the league’s best offenses and worst defenses to one of the league’s worst offenses and best defenses, ranking 25th in scoring (18.2 points per game) while giving up the fewest points per game in the NFL (13.2).

The Cardinals have one of the league’s most generous defenses, ranking 29th in points allowed per game and 28th in yards allowed per game. That makes this a favorable matchup for Justin Herbert & Co., who are looking to break out after averaging just 14.3 points per game over their last three.

Arizona has been especially susceptible to the run, surrendering 153 yards on the ground per game (30th in the NFL). That should mean a big game for J.K. Dobbins, who is coming off a season-high 25 carries and ranks fifth in rushing yards per game (87.6).

The moneyline odds for this game are nearly even, which is surprising given the Chargers’ success (2-1) in away games. Their lone road loss came against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that Herbert left early due to injury, so they should be in good shape as long as he stays on the field.

Thus, we’re backing Los Angeles to leave the desert with another road victory.

Uncharacteristically for the Chargers, they haven’t had too many close calls this season. All three of their wins have come by at least a touchdown, with their three victories coming by a combined 42 points (14 points per game).

The spread for this game is only a point, so you should back whichever team you think will win outright. Nearly every NFL game has been decided by at least three points this season, including all five of LA’s games and five of Arizona’s six games.

If you want to wager the Cardinals against the spread, try an alternate spread of +3.5 to give yourself more protection. But we’re backing the Chargers to win by at least two points and cover.

Arizona’s offense has been better than it gets credit for, especially on the ground. Kyler Murray and James Conner have helped lead the NFL’s seventh-ranked rushing attack, averaging 145.2 rushing yards per game.

However, both offenses have slumped of late. The Cardinals are averaging just 16 points over their last four games, while the Chargers are averaging only 14.3 points over their last three.

This could be a breakout performance for Los Angeles’ offense, but it’s more likely that the Chargers take an early lead, slow down Arizona with their defense and lean on Dobbins to drain the clock.

The winner will probably be the first team to 21 points, so we’re backing the Under, especially since it’s 4-1 in Los Angeles’ games this year.

J.K. Dobbins Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

After three straight injury-marred seasons, Dobbins is back to being one of the game’s top running backs. He ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards, ninth in yards per attempt and fifth in rushing yards per game.

Look for him to exploit this juicy matchup against Arizona’s soft run defense. He’s already topped 100 rushing yards in a game twice this season and is 3-2 against this prop.

After giving Dobbins a season-high 25 carries last week, look for Harbaugh to lean on him heavily again, especially if Los Angeles grabs an early lead.

• Check out our full Week 7 MNF prop bets here.

James Conner Anytime Touchdown (-110)

Conner is a touchdown machine near the goal line, mainly due to his high volume of red-zone carries. He leads the Cardinals with three rushing touchdowns, all of which have come from within seven yards.

Conner’s usage has also increased in the passing game. Over his last two games combined, he’s caught 6-of-8 targets for 36 yards, making him a threat to score through the air as well.

Los Angeles has yielded over 100 rushing yards in each of its last three games, making this a decent matchup for Conner. At close to even odds, we like his chances of finding the end zone this week.

• Moneyline: Chargers (-118). The Chargers have struggled to win games they’re supposed to in the past. But at these odds, and with such a talent advantage over the Cardinals (especially on defense), they are absolutely worth betting on.
• Spread: Chargers -1 (-112). If the Chargers win, they’ll almost certainly do so by at least two points, since their average winning margin is two touchdowns this year. But even if the Cardinals hang tough, there’s almost no way they’ll stay within one point without winning outright.
• Over/Under: Under 44 (-110). Both offenses like to run the ball and Los Angeles boasts the NFL’s stingiest defense, setting up a low-scoring affair.
• J.K. Dobbins Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-120). Dobbins is averaging 120.7 rushing yards per game in the Chargers’ three wins this year, so look for him to post another lofty total this week.
• James Conner Anytime Touchdown (-110). Conner has 38 touchdowns in 47 career games with the Cardinals, including three in six games this season. Conner is one of the most reliable touchdown scorers in the league and is a good bet to punch one in on Monday.

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