Chargers vs. Chiefs SNF Week 14: Prediction, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets

The Chiefs are -200 favorites on the moneyline, which isn’t surprising given that they’re tied for the best record in the sport. Kansas City is also undefeated (6-0) at Arrowhead this year.

The Chiefs have dominated their rivalry with the Chargers, winning eight of their last 10 meetings, including the last six in a row. Kansas City already beat Los Angeles earlier this season, earning a 17-10 road win over the Chargers in Week 4.

Los Angeles is 6-2 since then, however, hitting its stride under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers have played well on the road this year, going 4-2 away from SoFi Stadium.

These teams are nearly identical on paper with good head coaches, elite quarterbacks, strong defenses and middling offensive weapons. This is a very even matchup that will likely be decided by a few plays and could go either way.

That said, we’re backing the Chiefs to pull this one out. They’re 9-0 in one-possession games this year, plus they have two extra days of rest and home-field advantage on their side.

While the Chiefs will probably find a way to win this game, the Chargers should keep the score close enough to cover the spread.

Kansas City has looked vulnerable lately. After losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 11, the Chiefs barely beat the last-place Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders (5-19 combined record) in Weeks 12 and 13, winning both games by just five points combined.

Kansas City has failed to cover in six straight games, and its last three wins have all come by a field goal or less. Accordingly,

The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Los Angeles also has a better point differential (plus-72) than Kansas City, which has the worst point differential of any 11-1 team in NFL history (plus-54).

As such, we can’t trust the Chiefs to cover -4 here. Nine of their 12 games have been decided by one possession, so they’re unlikely to win by more than a field goal.

Take the points with the Chargers.

Despite the presence of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, this game should be fairly low-scoring.

For starters, both defenses are outstanding. The Chargers lead the NFL in fewest points allowed (15.7 per game), while the Chiefs rank eighth in both fewest points and yards allowed per game.

Furthermore, both offenses have been pedestrian. Los Angeles ranks 18th in scoring and 24th in yardage, while Kansas City is 11th in scoring and 15th in yardage.

Both teams struggle in the red zone and rely on field goals more than touchdowns to win games. That was true again last week, when both teams won despite scoring just one offensive touchdown combined.

The Under is 8-4 in Chargers games this year, including their Week 4 loss to the Chiefs. Expect a similar outcome this week with lots of stalled drives and field goals, resulting in the Under.

Winning Margin: Chiefs By 1-6 Points (+300)

Considering how this season has gone for the Chiefs, there’s a good chance they win this game by less than a full touchdown.

Kansas City has an average point differential of 4.5 points per game and 5.7 points per win. Its last five wins have all been by one possession, and its last four wins have come by six points or less.

At 3/1 odds, this prop bet is worth targeting. However, we recommend a smaller unit size given the risk involved if the Chiefs lose or win by at least a full touchdown.

First Half: Both Teams To Score 1+ Touchdowns (-125)

While both offenses struggled last week, they should both be able to score at least one touchdown in the first half on Sunday.

The Chiefs’ offense has been significantly better in the first half of games this year, scoring three more touchdowns and racking up 521 more yards compared to the second half.

The Chargers have also been more potent in the first half. Los Angeles has 16 offensive touchdowns before halftime compared to just nine offensive touchdowns in the second half.

Both offenses are known for starting strong before tailing off in the second half, so expect a similar start on Sunday.

• Chiefs Moneyline
• Chargers +7.5
• Under 48.5 Total Points
• Total odds: +350

For our three-leg same-game parlay, we’re taking the Chiefs to win outright. While the Chargers are arguably the better team, Mahomes is 34-5 against the AFC West in his career and 42-11 at Arrowhead in the regular season.

Kansas City should win, but it won’t be by much. We’re going with an alternate spread of Chargers +7.5 to give us more protection in case the Chiefs beat Los Angeles by a full touchdown again, as they did in Week 4.

Lastly, we’re taking the Under on an alternate total of 48.5, which gives us a little more wiggle room in case the game ends up being higher-scoring than expected.

At +350 odds, this SGP pays out $35 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

• Moneyline: Chiefs (-200). The Chiefs have been getting lucky lately, but Mahomes simply doesn’t lose to divisional rivals (.872 winning percentage).
• Spread: Chargers +4 (-110). If the Chiefs couldn’t beat two of the worst teams in the NFL by four points, the Chargers should be able to keep this within a field goal.
• Over/Under: Under 43 (-110). This total is pretty low for a duel between Mahomes and Herbert, but both lack weapons and are facing tough defenses.
• Winning Margin: Chiefs By 1-6 Points (+300). Kansas City’s last four wins have all come by fewer than seven points.
• First Half: Both Teams To Score 1+ Touchdowns (-125): Both teams average 1.3 offensive touchdowns in the first half and should find the end zone before halftime.
• SGP – Chiefs ML, Chargers +7.5, Under 48.5 (+350): If the Chiefs win a close, low-scoring game, this parlay should hit.