Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Game: Prediction, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets

The Lions are arguably the best team in the NFL, which is why they have such short moneyline odds against a Bears team that hasn’t won since mid-October.

Led by NFL MVP candidate Jared Goff, Detroit has the best offense in the NFL this year, ranking first in scoring and second in total yardage. The Lions are averaging 37.3 points over their last eight games and enter Thursday’s matchup on a nine-game winning streak.

Detroit also boasts a fearsome defense. Despite losing star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson for the season, the Lions still rank second in fewest points allowed.

That’s bad news for the Bears and their below-average offense. Chicago ranks 22nd in scoring and 26th in yardage, plus they recently fired their offensive coordinator.

The Bears are solid defensively (eighth in points allowed), but will be hard-pressed to keep up with Detroit’s high-octane offense. Also keep in mind that the Lions are 4-1 at home this year, whereas Chicago is 0-4 on the road.

Accordingly, we’re backing the Lions to win, preferably as a parlay leg due to the short odds.

This is the biggest spread of the Thanksgiving slate, and for good reason. The Lions have been blowing teams out all year, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.1 points per game.

Detroit is 9-2 against the spread this season, covering in both games where it was favored by double digits.

The Bears have played better than their record suggests, however, scoring four more points than they’ve allowed. Based on point differential, their record should be 6-5 or 5-6 rather than 4-7.

Chicago’s been tough to blow out this year, losing only two games by double digits. Its other five losses all came by less than seven points.

The Lions are 5-6 against a -10.5 spread this year, and the Bears should be able to keep this game relatively close with its formidable defense and improving offense. Take the points with Chicago.

The total is tough to predict when you have an offensive juggernaut like the Lions and a lackluster offense like the Bears.

The Over is 5-2-1 in Detroit’s last eight games, while the Under is 4-1 during Chicago’s five-game losing streak.

The Lions have scored at least 24 points in eight straight games, so we know they’re going to put up points. The Bears’ offense has also played much better under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, topping 390 yards in each of their last two games and scoring 27 points last week.

With both offenses clicking and this game taking place indoors, we’re backing the Over.

Caleb Williams 225+ Passing Yards (-130)

Williams has had his ups and downs as a passer this year, but he’s coming off one of the best games of his career after completing 32 of 47 passes last week for 340 yards and two touchdowns.

Williams has cleared this prop in each of his last two games and will likely need to air it out against the Lions on Thursday. Detroit also has one of the most generous secondaries in the league, yielding 227.2 passing yards per game (25th in NFL).

All signs point to Williams having a good day throwing the ball.

D’Andre Swift 50+ Rushing Yards (-104)

Swift fell short of this prop last week for the first time since Week 3, finishing with just 30 rushing yards on 13 carries against the Vikings’ stingy run defense.

The Lions have a good run defense as well, but look for Swift to have more success running the ball this week. He’s averaging 60.5 rushing yards per game this season and has topped this prop in seven of his last eight games, making him a good candidate to bounce back against his former team.

The Bears will also likely feature Swift heavily this week to keep the clock moving and keep the ball out of Detroit’s hands as much as possible, especially if this game stays fairly close as we expect.

• Moneyline: Lions (-520). The Lions have won three of their last four matchups against the Bears and are the better team on both sides of the ball.
• Spread: Bears +10.5 (-122). The Lions should win, but the Bears are talented enough to keep the game relatively close.
• Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-105). Both offenses have been playing well lately and should score enough to hit the Over.
• Caleb Williams 225+ Passing Yards (-130): Williams has flourished as a passer since Chicago swapped OC’s and has a good matchup against Detroit’s porous secondary.
• D’Andre Swift 50+ Rushing Yards (-104): Look for Swift to bounce back against his old team after getting held in check by Minnesota last week.