Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 21
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Chiefs +120, Bills -142
- Spread: Chiefs +2.5 (-102), Bills -2.5 (-118)
- Total: Over/Under 45 (-112/-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Buffalo for their first road playoff game in the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs haven’t dominated their 2023-24 NFL schedule like we’ve seen in the past, but they’re still one of the final teams remaining in the AFC.
Josh Allen is tasked with taking down Mahomes on Sunday. While the Bills have succeeded against Kansas City in the regular season, they’ve yet to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs with Allen under center.
Both teams cruised to victory in the first round despite inclement weather. Buffalo beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 thanks to a heroic effort from Allen. Kansas City used the historic cold to its advantage, beating the Miami Dolphins 26-7.
The Bills are third in the Super Bowl odds market at 5/1. The Chiefs are right behind on the list at 7/1 in the futures market.
Moneyline
The moneyline favors Buffalo slightly at home, and this is our most viable betting option.
The most battle-tested teams tend to perform in the playoffs, and the Bills have been in playoff mode for weeks. Their road to this point hasn’t been easy.
Buffalo won five straight games to end the season and clinched a playoff berth in the final game of the regular season. This win-or-go-home mentality should help the Bills against the Chiefs, who cruised to a division title.
Allen has been fantastic down the stretch, which must continue for Buffalo to advance to the AFC Championship.
Allen was fourth in the NFL in passing yards (4,306), tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (29) and third in quarterback rating (69.4) during the regular season. However, his biggest issue has been turnovers.
Allen is second in the league in interceptions with 18. Mahomes has also thrown his fair share of picks with 14 on the year, but Allen is more of a wild card entering this contest.
The Bills are consistent winners when Allen doesn’t turn the ball over, going 29-5 when he doesn’t give the ball to the opposition. If he plays a clean game, there’s no reason to think Kansas City can pull off a road upset.
Point Spread
Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite against the spread, and we recommend laying the points.
This line has teetered between 2.5 and 3 since it opened, and both numbers are still available depending on the sportsbook. If you like the Bills, find an NFL betting site offering 2.5 and jump on this side of the line.
If you believe the Chiefs will cover, you can wait to see if this line goes to 3.5. Buffalo is receiving most of the bets and handle at DraftKings, so more line movement could be coming.
Early in the week, the Bills had received 61% of the bets and 74% of the handle, which shows the public believes in Allen at home.
Even though we’re riding with the favorite, it’s important to note how lucrative Mahomes has been as an underdog ATS.
Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog, according to BetMGM, and Kansas City is 10-7-1 ATS this season. Buffalo is just 8-10, but it’s 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games.
Even though Mahomes has been profitable as an underdog, the Chiefs don’t have much offensive talent around him. While the Bills are dealing with injuries on defense, star players make a difference and they have plenty of offensive weapons.
Over/Under
The Over/Under is set at 45 points, and we’re leaning Under in this contest.
The headlining attractions for this game are Mahomes and Allen. These two have dueled in epic battles over the years and posted some high totals. However, their matchup this season featured only 37 total points.
Kansas City is the best Under team in the NFL. The Chiefs are 13-5 to the Under in 2023-24, including their playoff game last week against the Dolphins.
Buffalo has also been a profitable Under team with an 11-7 record. The key for both teams will be to keep their opponents off the field and control the clock.
Kansas City adopted a ground-and-pound offensive attack with Isiah Pacheco this season, and he should be extremely active in this contest. Pacheco has received 18-plus rushing attempts in three of his last four games and is coming off a season-high 24 carries last week.
Look for both teams to emphasize the run game and clock control, leading to minimal points.
Player Prop
A playable prop bet is Josh Allen Over 44.5 rushing yards (-115).
Allen is the primary reason the Bills have overcome the odds and made it to this point in the playoffs. He’s made plenty of mistakes, but his upside is massive because of his rushing ability.
Since Joe Brady took over the play-calling for Buffalo, Allen has been more patient in the pocket. This patience has led to late scrambles when defenders turn their back to Allen.
He had a 52-yard touchdown run against Miami because defenders didn’t honor his legs, and this could happen again on Sunday.
Allen is also a threat in the designed run game. Brady has called plenty of power and counter schemes with him, leading to significant gains.
While this total is high, Allen has been using his legs extensively during the Bills’ winning streak.
He has exceeded this total in two straight games, and we believe he will make it three on Sunday. As we saw last week, he can hit the Over on a single play if he breaks loose.
Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images
