Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets NFL Week 11

The Chiefs may be winning, but they’re doing it by the skin of their teeth. While Kansas City has become known for its offense under quarterback Patrick Mahomes, it’s been carried by its dominant defense this year, which is fourth in yards-against per game (289.9) and fifth in points-against per game (17.9).

But the Bills offense is rolling over their five-game winning streak. They are averaging 29.6 points per game over that streak and have put up at least 30 points in four straight games. Though Josh Allen has thrown four interceptions over the past three weeks, Buffalo’s defense has allowed an average of just 17.4 points per game over its win streak.

Plus, Buffalo has dominated this series, especially in the regular season. The Bills have won three straight against the Chiefs in the regular season, whereas KC has returned the favor by winning their three postseason matchups across the past four seasons.

But based on Buffalo’s dominance against KC in the regular season – and the surely raucous atmosphere in Western New York on Sunday afternoon – we will back the Bills to end the Chiefs’ lengthy win streak.

Back Buffalo on the moneyline.

The spread is effectively a toss up since Buffalo has covered -2.5 in each of its eight wins this year – and is 0-2 against a +2.5 spread in its losses.

It is worth it to shop around for a more favorable spread, since -2 is more likely to hit than -2.5. But if you are trusting Buffalo to win, taking the Bills to win by at least a field goal is a must – especially since the Bills have beaten the Chiefs by at least three points in every game over the past three seasons.

Thus, we’ll take Buffalo to cover -2.5, but recommend finding -2 if you can.

The Chiefs defense is excellent, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has had a game-changing effect on the KC defense since he took over 2019. Spagnuolo is on a serious burner over the past two seasons, as evidenced by KC ranking second in total defense last season along with being fourth this year.

The Bills offense is putting up points, even though it has been a middle-of-the-road team in terms of yards per game. Buffalo is 14th in yards per game (343.2) and 15th in rushing-yards per game (120.7), despite scoring the third-most points per game (29.0).

Can Buffalo win a low-scoring game against the Chiefs? It did so against the Jets in Week 6 and was on the verge of doing so in Houston in Week 5 despite Allen struggling.

The Chiefs have been especially reliant on their defense in road games, and this Over has only hit in only one of the four away games they’ve played this season.

Considering that trend, and the fact the Bills are only giving 19.3 points per game, we will back the Under in what should be a 24-20 or 21-17 type game.

DeAndre Hopkins Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Hopkins has been a huge and much-needed upgrade in the Chiefs offense and has topped total in two straight games.

Buffalo ranks 18th in the NFL in passing yards-against per game (212.9) and will surely be trying to limit tight end Travis Kelce, who averages 63 yards per game and 12.9 yards per reception in his career against the Bills.

Hopkins is averaging 68 yards per game in his five career games against the Bills. With the potential for KC to throw the ball, especially in the second half, Hopkins could be in line for a big target share again.

Thus, we will back Hopkins to stay hot in his third game for the Chiefs and hit the Over on this prop.

Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Allen’s rushing has been down a bit this season, but he is still coming off a 50-yard rushing performance against the Colts on Sunday.

Aside from designed runs down near the goal line, Allen has the opportunity to scramble against Kansas City’s pass rush, which only has 19 sacks this season. The veteran is averaging 33.8 rushing yards per game in his career against the Chiefs.

With the potential for Buffalo to get ahead of the game script, Allen will have more chances to run the ball, as will running back James Cook. Plus, Allen has topped this prop in two of the three matchups against the Chiefs over the past three years, so look for that trend to continue.

• Moneyline: Bills (-134). Buffalo is rolling and has dominated the Chiefs during the regular season. KC has been playing with fire all season and will likely get burned in Buffalo on Sunday.
• Spread: Bills -2.5 (-105). It’s worth shopping for a more favorable spread, but if Buffalo is going to win it will likely do so by at least three points.
• Over/Under: Under 46.5 (-115). These defenses are elite, and this game will prove that lowish-scoring games can still be entertaining.
• DeAndre Hopkins Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114). Hopkins has been awesome since coming to Kansas City, and he is averaging more than 60 yards per game in his career against the Bills.
• Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-114). Allen is coming off a huge day running the ball and is averaging this number in his career against KC.

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images.