Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 28
- Time: 3 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. CT
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Chiefs +180, Ravens -215
- Spread: Chiefs +3.5 (-102), Ravens -3.5 (-120)
- Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-108/-112)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The stakes are immense for the AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.
These teams had different experiences during the Divisional Round, as the Ravens overcame a sluggish first half to blow out the Houston Texans at home, 34-10.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills added another remarkable chapter to their rivalry. They traded blows until the Bills missed the game-tying field goal on their final drive, allowing Patrick Mahomes to escape Buffalo with his first postseason road win.
On the futures board, Baltimore has the second-shortest Super Bowl odds of the four remaining teams at +170, ranking just behind the San Francisco 49ers (+140). Kansas City is third at +450 despite winning the Lombardi Trophy last year.
Can Lamar Jackson lead the Ravens to the Big Game after recent playoff disappointment? Or will the Chiefs continue their title defense with another road win?
Moneyline
For the second week in a row, Kansas City is a road underdog with plus odds on the moneyline.
Mahomes had never played a postseason game on the road before last week, but it didn’t faze him. He proved he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, picking apart the Bills’ defense for 215 passing yards and two touchdowns on a 73.9% completion rate.
Mahomes already has two MVP awards under his belt, but Jackson is also about to win his second. Jackson got the playoff monkey off his back last week with a historic performance, tearing up the Texans for 152 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and four total touchdowns.
While both quarterbacks are roughly the same age (Jackson is one year younger), postseason experience could be a factor here. This is Mahomes’ sixth-straight Conference Championship game – the second-longest streak in NFL history behind Tom Brady. He’s 13-3 in the playoffs after last week’s win, including 3-2 in this round.
Jackson has never been one win away from the Big Game, so this is the first time he’s playing with a Super Bowl trip on the line. He’s 2-3 in the postseason and doesn’t have Mahomes’ track record.
However, that may not matter because Baltimore is the better team. The Ravens were one of the most complete squads in the NFL this year, finishing near the top of the league in offense, defense and special teams.
The Chiefs also have a great defense (second in points and yards allowed), but their offense has looked surprisingly mortal. They finished 15th in points and often struggled to finish drives, settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.
Baltimore doesn’t have that problem, ranking fourth in scoring and averaging 29.8 points per game in Jackson’s starts. In his last 11 starts, the Ravens have eclipsed 30 points nine times.
Jackson showed once again last week why he’s so difficult to contain. Houston blitzed him relentlessly, hoping to force the ball out quickly and prevent him from getting comfortable in the pocket. Jackson adjusted by speeding up his game in the second half and running circles around pass rushers.
Mahomes is fairly mobile, but he can’t change a game with his legs the way Jackson can. Jackson also has more weapons at his disposal, especially if top tight end Mark Andrews returns from injury.
These two teams haven’t played since 2021, when Jackson got the best of Mahomes in a 36-35 thriller. Expect a similar outcome this time.
Point Spread
We like Baltimore on the moneyline, but Kansas City is a better option on the spread if it holds at 3.5 points.
The Ravens will have to win by more than a field goal to cover with the hook, and we’re not sure they can against the battle-tested Chiefs.
As mentioned, it’s unwise to bet against Mahomes in the playoffs. He covered last week as an underdog and is now 11-5 against the spread in the postseason.
This season, Kansas City is 11-8 against the spread and has covered in four straight games. It’s also 7-2 straight up on the road, winning its last three road games.
Baltimore has also been outstanding against the spread this year, going 12-6 ATS overall and 6-2 in its last eight games. The Ravens have been a mixed bag lately at home, going 3-3 ATS in their last six home games.
Anchored by Mahomes, a stellar defense and a legendary head coach in Andy Reid (second-most playoff wins of all-time), the Chiefs should keep this game close. They took down a statistically superior team last week on the road.
Even if Kansas City falters, this is the type of game that will be decided by a field goal. That’s how last week went for the Chiefs, and we’re predicting another evenly-matched duel between two of the best quarterbacks of their generation.
Over/Under
The Over/Under opened at 44.5 points, a modest total with two elite quarterbacks.
Kansas City went over this total comfortably last week with 51 total points, and Baltimore also would have if Houston didn’t get shut out in the second half.
Because of their stingy defenses, both teams have trended to the Under this year. The Chiefs are 13-6 against the Under and yield 17.1 points per game. The Ravens allow 16.1 points per game this year and are 9-8-1 to the Under.
Four of Kansas City’s last five games have been less than the posted total, but Baltimore’s offense keeps the Over in play. The Ravens are 5-3-1 to the Over in their last nine games.
The weather in Baltimore could have an impact this weekend. Forecasts call for temps in the 40s with a chance of rain, which may make scoring difficult.
The Chiefs have allowed more than 20 points only once in their last seven games, while the Ravens have held their last five opponents under 20 points. There’s a good chance at least one of these teams scores fewer than 20 points on Sunday.
If that happens, it will be hard for the Over to hit. In a game with two suffocating defenses and questionable weather, we should expect more punts and field goals than touchdowns.
Player Prop
One player prop to target from this game is Isiah Pacheco to score an anytime touchdown at plus odds.
Pacheco has been a touchdown machine for KC lately, scoring in six straight games. He has had seven total touchdowns during the span, with six on the ground and one through the air.
The Chiefs’ lead back is a good bet to find the end zone again this week given his impressive volume. Pacheco has received 15-plus touches in eight consecutive games and has been the team’s most reliable scoring option over the last two months.
If the weather is suboptimal, look for Kansas City to lean on Pacheco even more this week, especially in scoring situations. He has only fumbled the ball twice all year and can be trusted to carry the ball safely across the pylons.
With plus odds, this wager offers some value.
Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images
