Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Week 10 TNF: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Ravens have stomped teams at home over the past two seasons. Baltimore is 3-1 at home this year with an average winning margin of 21 points and has won eight games at home by at least 10 points since the start of 2023.

After three straight one-possession losses to start the year, the Bengals have turned things around with a plus-21 point differential over their last six games. Cincinnati has also won three straight road games, and its only road loss was by one point to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2.

The Ravens have won their last three games against the Bengals, and Jackson is 9-2 against them in his career.

These teams are mirror images of each other, as both have elite offenses and suspect defenses. Baltimore ranks second in scoring in first and yardage on offense but is 23rd in points allowed and 21st in yards allowed. Its defense ranks dead last in passing yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati ranks seventh in scoring and 25th in points allowed despite being 17th in offensive yardage and 19th in yards allowed.

This should be a fun and competitive game, but the Ravens are the better team. Look for Henry and Jackson to run through the Bengals’ defense, which ranks 18th in rushing yards against per game (130.4).

Take Baltimore on the moneyline.

This spread seems disrespectful to the Bengals, even with the Ravens’ penchant for blowing out teams at home. Baltimore is 4-5 against a -6 spread this year, and three of its last four wins against Cincinnati have come by a field goal or less.

As mentioned, the Bengals have been much better on the road this year, going 4-0 against the spread in away games. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed a much lower completion percentage on the road (60.4%) than at home (69.7%) and is giving up 17 points per game on the road versus 31.2 points per game at home.

It’s hard to advocate laying a touchdown in any divisional game, especially against a team as talented as the Bengals. Even though the Ravens have dominated teams at M&T Bank Stadium, Cincinnati should keep this game close.

Thus, we are backing the Bengals to cover +6, even though they probably won’t win outright.

The Ravens have struggled defensively, though that is partly a function of score effects. They tend to build big leads and take their foot off the gas, especially in the fourth quarter.

Baltimore has allowed at least 23 points in seven of its nine games this year, including four of its last five.

The Bengals’ defense is also subpar, costing them two games where the offense topped 30 points. It has yielded 24-plus points in six of its last eight games

The last time these two teams played each other, they erupted for 79 points and nearly 1,000 total yards of offense. The Over has hit in six of their last eight matchups, including their last three.

This is a high bar to clear, but expect another high-scoring game on Thursday night and take the Over in a likely shootout.

Joe Burrow Over 272.5 Passing Yards (-120)

Burrow is averaging 249.3 passing yards per game this season and has hit the Under on this prop in seven of nine games this year. But he torched the Ravens for 392 passing yards in Week 5 and is averaging 283.9 passing yards per game against them in his career.

With Baltimore allowing a league-worst 280.9 passing yards per game, Burrow is poised for another big outing, especially if Cincinnati falls behind and has to throw the ball. This is a great spot to back one of the league’s best quarterbacks coming off one of the best games of his career.

Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Jackson has topped this number five times this season, including his 55-yard performance on 12 carries against the Bengals in Week 5. Jackson is averaging 56.1 rushing yards per game this season and is averaging 68.3 rushing yards per game in his career against Cincinnati.

The Bengals are giving up over 130 rushing yards per game, making this a good matchup for Jackson. While Henry’s rushing prop is worth considering, it’s an awfully high bar to clear at 93.5 yards.

Jackson’s line is more attainable and is the safer bet.

• Moneyline: Ravens (-270). Baltimore has dominated Cincinnati lately, and we like the Ravens to score a close win Thursday night. The odds make this a better parlay leg.
• Spread: Bengals +6 (-110). The Bengals have played better on the road and four of their five losses have come by less than a touchdown. They’re 8-1 against this number this year.
• Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110). This is a high bar to clear, but both teams score and allow tons of points, making the Over likely.
• Joe Burrow Over 272.5 Passing Yards (-120). Burrow threw for nearly 400 yards the last time he faced the Ravens, who have allowed the most passing yards per game in the NFL.
• Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120). Jackson is heavily involved in Baltimore’s run-centric offense and has a good matchup against Cincinnati’s mediocre run defense.

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images.