Commanders vs. Eagles TNF Week 11: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Commanders are one of the NFL’s best stories, led by new head coach Dan Quinn and the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft (Daniels). After going 4-13 last year, Washington has improved dramatically on both sides of the ball with an elite offense and an above-average defense.

That said, the Commanders will have to overcome their recent poor history against the Eagles. Philadelphia has won seven of their last 10 meetings, including five of the last six.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are on a roll. They’ve won five straight since their bye week to pass Washington in the standings, averaging 29.4 points per game during that span while allowing just 15 points per game.

Philadelphia’s defense ranks top-five in both fewest yards and points allowed per game, completely turning things around under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Washington will need to find a way to slow Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ second-ranked rushing attack, especially after allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game through Week 10.

With Philadelphia’s ability to punish teams on the ground and through the air, it should be able to put up points. Plus, Daniels could struggle in his first matchup against the Eagles’ formidable defense.

Thus, we’ll back Philadelphia to extend its winning streak and hand the Commanders their second straight defeat.

This is where things get interesting.

The Eagles have covered four points in each of their past five games and are 6-3 against a -3.5 spread this year. Meanwhile, six of the Commanders’ last nine games have been decided by one score, including their last three.

White Philadelphia has been better on the moneyline against Washington recently, the Commanders have had more success against the spread. They’re 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Eagles, including 4-0-1 in their last five trips to Lincoln Financial Field.

That said, two of Washington’s three losses have come on the road this year. The Commanders are 3-2 in away games, while Philadelphia is 2-1 against a -3.5 spread at home.

We’d prefer the Eagles at -3, but we’ll still back them to cover -3.5 for the sixth week in a row.

This total suggests an exciting, high-scoring game between two of the best offenses in football. The Over is 7-3 in their last 10 matchups, and their last three meetings have all topped 50 points.

But these are also two of the league’s best defenses, combining for fewer than 40 points allowed per game. Both offenses are top-five in rushing yards per game and love to run the ball, so this game may move quickly.

Jalen Hurts hasn’t attempted more than 25 passes in a game since Week 4, while Daniels is completing less than 60% of his passes during the same span.

Quinn and Fangio are two of the best defensive coaches around, so we think this game will be lower-scoring than expected, especially if both teams lean on their ground attacks. Take the Under.

Saquon Barkley Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (-125)

Barkley is averaging 19 rushing attempts per game this season and has topped 20 rushing attempts in two of his last three games. He’s also averaging 22.3 rushing attempts per home game this year.

Given Washington’s struggles against the run, we expect a heavy dose of Barkley on Thursday night. He’s eclipsed 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games and has been instrumental in Philadelphia’s recent success, so look for him to get plenty of volume.

Barkley wasn’t needed much in last week’s blowout of the Cowboys, so he should be relatively fresh after getting 14 carries – his fewest since Week 4. This game should be closer, so look for him to be heavily involved, especially if the Eagles have the lead.

Terry McLaurin Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

McLaurin is averaging 71.1 receiving yards per game this season and has easily topped this prop in four of his last six games.

McLaurin has also dominated Philadelphia throughout his career, averaging 84.7 receiving yards per game against the Eagles. He’s gone over this mark in four straight games against them and six of 10 overall.

McLaurin is averaging 6.6 targets per game and 10.8 yards per target, so he should see enough volume to hit the Over on this prop, especially if the Commanders are playing from behind and Daniels needs to air it out.

• Moneyline: Eagles (-192). It may be close, but the Eagles’ winning streak should continue for at least one more week, especially in front of a fired-up Thursday night home crowd.
• Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-112). Grab Eagles -3 if you can, but Philadelphia should win by at least 6-10 points and cover.
• Over/Under: Under 48.5 (-110). Both defenses have played well and should prevent a shootout from breaking out on a chilly evening in Philly.
• Saquon Barkley Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (-125). Barkley should be well-fed on Thursday night against Washington’s porous run defense.
• Terry McLaurin Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115). McLaurin may be in line for a huge game given his impressive history against the Eagles, especially if the Commanders fall behind.