Dallas Cowboys vs. NY Giants Week 4: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

Dallas is the clear favorite, and it isn’t hard to see why. Despite their early-season struggles, the Cowboys are still loaded, especially on offense where they are averaging 25.7 points per game (sixth in NFL).

Dallas’ defense has been another story, however, especially over the past two weeks. The Cowboys are 30th in the NFL in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed after surrendering 72 points over their last two games combined.

Luckily for Dallas, New York’s offense is still lackluster despite Nabers’ sudden emergence. The Giants rank 29th with 15 points per game and are 22nd in total yardage.

Part of the reason is Daniel Jones, who has a career-low 59.6% completion rate this year. He’s also been terrible against the Cowboys throughout his career, going 1-7 with a 4:5 TD/INT ratio, a 58.8% completion rate and 24 sacks against.

Not surprisingly, Dallas has owned this series of late, winning six straight games against New York and 13 of the last 14, including 10 of 14 at MetLife Stadium since it opened in 2010.

Given the Cowboys’ superior offense, we expect those trends to continue. Take Dallas on the moneyline, even though the odds aren’t very lucrative.

A 5.5-point spread is effectively a sportsbook’s way of throwing its hands up in the air, especially with a potential live home underdog like the Giants. New York is 2-1 against that number this season, and its defense has been better than advertised by allowing just two touchdowns in its last two games combined.

There is a world in which the Giants’ defense hangs tough and gets after Dak Prescott. They’re tied for second in the NFL with 14 sacks and the Cowboys love to throw the ball.

But Dallas has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 meetings with New York, including five of the last six. There’s no reason to believe things will be different on Thursday, so back the Cowboys to cover.

When these two teams played last September, Dallas won by 40 points and the Under still hit. In fact, the Under has hit in four straight Cowboys-Giants games at MetLife Stadium.

With its stingy defense and punchless offense, New York has hit the Under in its last four games. Meanwhile, Dallas’ offense has struggled to get going the last two weeks, and its defense is due for a rebound.

The Giants lack the rushing attack needed to exploit the Cowboys’ dismal run defense, and Trevon Diggs should be able to slow Nabers.

Look for a final score around 24-17, which puts the Under in play.

CeeDee Lamb Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Lamb is 1-2 against this prop bet so far, but look for him to have a big game this week. He’s dominated the Giants throughout his career, averaging 90.3 receiving yards in eight games against New York and topping 80 receiving yards in five of those contests.

New York allowed Amari Cooper to get loose for 86 receiving yards and two touchdowns last week, so we could see Lamb having a similar impact this week. We also like his anytime touchdown scorer odds (-130).

• Check out our full Week 4 TNF prop bets.

Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-122)

The Giants will want to run the ball with Devin Singletary as much as possible, but if they fall behind they’ll have no choice but to let Jones air it out.

As mentioned above, Jones has been a disaster against Dallas. He’s thrown at least one pick in each of his four home starts against the Cowboys and was intercepted twice in his only home game this year.

Dallas has three interceptions through three games this year and is a good bet to pick off Jones, who has eight interceptions in his last nine games.

• Moneyline: Cowboys (-255). These odds aren’t lucrative, but this reeks of a get-right game for Dallas, especially after its strong finish against Baltimore last week.
• Spread: Cowboys -5.5 (-114). The Giants’ defense is good enough to keep them in the game, but their offense is not potent enough to stay within six points, even at home on a short week.
• Total: Under 45.5 Points (-110). Dallas’ offense has struggled in the first half over the past two weeks, while New York has struggled to put up points. The Under seems safe.
• CeeDee Lamb Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113). Lamb has cleared this number in three of his last four games against the Giants. Prescott should be targeting him early and often, especially against Deonte Banks, who has a poor 49.0 grade from Pro Football Focus.
• Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-122). Jones has protected the ball in New York’s last two games, but Dallas’ defense tends to bring out the worst in him. Look for him to throw the ball to the wrong side at least once on Thursday.

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