Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 8: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The 49ers are clinging to life in the NFC, and it’s starting to look dicey for them. They’ve coughed up several winnable games and need a win this week to get back to .500 before their bye.

San Francisco’s offense has been ravaged by injuries this year and will be shorthanded again this week, especially if Jauan Jennings and George Kittle – both of whom are questionable – sit. That would put Purdy and running back Jordan Mason in a tough spot against a well-rested Cowboys defense.

Dallas is also looking to bounce back after getting waxed 47-9 by the Detroit Lions at home the last time it took the field. It will also want revenge after losing 42-10 to the 49ers last year.

The Cowboys have been successful when they’ve run the ball with Rico Dowdle, as they are 2-0 in games where they’ve rushed for at least 100 yards. San Francisco is 12th against the run, allowing 112.9 yards per game, and just gave up a season-high 184 rushing yards to the Chiefs on Sunday.

Whether Dallas commits to running the ball is a different story, however, as the offense has been pass-happy with Dak Prescott. But given the Niners’ injuries and the Cowboys’ intriguing plus odds, we’ll back Dallas to remain unbeaten away from Jerry World and upset San Francisco.

Despite getting blown out in two of their losses this year, the Cowboys are 4-2 against a +4.5 spread. They’ve played well in close games, going 2-1 in one-possession affairs despite Mike McCarthy’s poor reputation in such contests.

The 49ers have struggled in close games, going 0-3 in contests decided by six points or fewer. They’ve had trouble closing out opponents when ahead, and coming back has been difficult given their rash of injuries.

A 4.5-point spread is basically a sportsbook’s way of throwing up its hands and guessing. Given San Francisco’s injuries and Dallas’ success on the road this season, we recommend taking the points with the Cowboys.

The only major injury to Dallas’ offense is Brandin Cooks, who is on injured reserve with a knee injury, but the Cowboys are banged up defensively. DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) is still on injured reserve, while cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) and game-wrecking EDGE Micah Parsons (ankle) are both questionable for Sunday.

Still, Dallas’ defense has stepped up on the road this year, holding opponents to fewer than 18 points in all three games. That trend could continue against San Francisco, which is coming off an 18-point performance against Kansas City and is a shell of its former self.

The 49ers will be lucky to reach 20 points this week, while the Cowboys haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 3. Thus, we expect a 24-21 type of game and will take the Under.

Brock Purdy Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-115)

With most of Purdy’s receiving corps wiped out, we’re unsure who he will be throwing the ball to this week.

The injuries to the 49ers’ skill players have clearly affected Purdy’s performance. He’s coming off a season-low 212 passing yards and threw three interceptions last week, often looking lost on offense. Over his last three games, he’s averaging just 237 passing yards.

Dallas has struggled to defend the run, ranking 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (143.2). Look for Kyle Shanahan to go run-heavy this week and lean on Mason to move the chains.

Thus, we’re backing the under on Purdy’s passing yards prop.

• Check out our full Week 8 SNF prop bets.

Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300)

The Cowboys only have two rushing touchdowns all season – one apiece from Elliott and Prescott. Despite having longer touchdown odds than Dowdle (+135), Elliott has had more rushing attempts (4-3) in the red zone than him this season.

The Niners are likely to give up a rushing touchdown Sunday night. They’ve surrendered nine scores on the ground, which ranks 26th in the NFL.

Elliott also has history against San Francisco, with three touchdowns in two regular-season games against them.

At these odds, an Elliott anytime TD is worth a sprinkle.

• Moneyline: Cowboys (+188). The Cowboys are unbeaten on the road and should rebound after being thoroughly embarrassed by the Lions before their bye week.
• Spread: Cowboys +4.5 (-110). The Niners have been gutted by injuries, especially on offense, so Dallas should be able to keep the score close even if it doesn’t win outright.
• Over/Under: Under 47.5 (-112). San Francisco’s offense is in shambles and is limping to its upcoming bye. The Cowboys’ offense is in a slump as well, so this game should be fairly low-scoring.
• Brock Purdy Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-115). For the Niners to win, they’ll need to lean heavily on their ground game against Dallas’ run defense. Even if Purdy throws the ball, who will be there to catch it?
• Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown (+300). Elliott hasn’t scored since Week 1, but he’s still getting touches in the red zone and could punch one in.

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