Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Week 7 TNF: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

These teams are going in different directions. The Broncos have won three of their past four games, mainly due to their exceptional defense, which ranks fourth in the NFL in both points (16.0) and yards (284.3) allowed per game.

The Saints, who were top-10 in both points scored and allowed last year, are fifth in scoring this year (27.8 points per game) but have dropped off dramatically on defense, ranking 23rd in points allowed (24.5) and dead last in yards allowed per game.

New Orleans has been besieged by injuries. In addition to missing Carr, the Saints will likely be without their top two receivers Rashid Shaheed (knee) and Chris Olave (concussion) as well as tight end/running back Taysom Hill (ribs).

Payton’s replacement in New Orleans, Dennis Allen, is squarely on the hot seat and could be fired if his losing streak grows to five, especially at home in primetime. However, it’s tough to trust Rattler and the Saints’ shorthanded offense against Denver’s elite defense.

Back the Broncos on the moneyline at compelling odds.

The Broncos are 2-1 on the road this season but are 1-2 against a -2.5 spread, which may be why they are only -118 to cover less than a field goal.

Still, that line and those odds are a gift from Vegas if you’re backing Denver. More than 90% of NFL games this season have been decided by at least three points, so if the Broncos win they are a near-certainty to cover.

Even on the road in a short week, take Denver to cover.

The Saints are missing four of their best offensive players, and the Broncos’ defense has been excellent. Denver is allowing just 14 points per game over its last five games and should give Rattler a much tougher time than Tampa Bay’s porous defense did.

Meanwhile, the Broncos’ offense has been dreadful with Nix under center, ranking 25th in scoring (18.7 points per game) and 29th in total yardage. They’ve struggled moving the ball through the air and on the ground, ranking 27th in passing yards per game and 23rd in rushing yards per game.

This total is low, but we’re still taking the Under in what should be a low-scoring game between two rookie quarterbacks. A tour-de-force Alvin Kamara performance is about the only thing that could drag this game Over.

Bo Nix Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Nix ranks second on the Broncos in rushing yards this season and is averaging 30 rushing yards per game. He’s coming off a career-high 61 rushing yards last week and has run for at least 25 yards in four of six games this year.

The Saints allowed 29 rushing yards to Baker Mayfield last week and have a subpar run defense, ranking 20th in rushing yards allowed per game. Payton’s offense also dials up run plays specifically for Nix, who’s tallied at least four carries in every game of his NFL career so far.

With that kind of steady volume, Nix has a stable rushing floor and is a good bet to cash the Over on this prop.

• Check out our full Week 7 TNF prop bets.

Spencer Rattler Under 182.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Rattler could be a sitting duck without his top weapons against Denver’s defense, which ranks second in sacks (22) and yards per pass attempt (6.0).

Score effects may require Rattler to air it out if New Orleans falls behind, but he only had 103 passing yards in the second half against the Buccaneers’ generous secondary last week after Olave and Shaheed went out.

The Saints’ offense will likely lean heavily on Kamara here, especially with the Broncos allowing 114.2 rushing yards per game.

It would be difficult for a seasoned veteran to top this total against Denver’s defense without most of his top pass-catchers, let alone a fifth-round pick making his second career start.

• Moneyline: Broncos (-152). The Broncos are road favorites for a reason. They’re healthier, have a stronger defense and have a more experienced rookie quarterback.
• Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-118). Only a handful of NFL games have been decided by less than a field goal this year, making Denver a good bet to cover.
• Over/Under: Under 36.5 (-105). This is a very low bar to clear, especially for a game featuring the high-octane Saints. But with two rookie QBs and most of New Orleans’ offensive threats sidelined, the Under is the play.
• Bo Nix Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-113). Nix is coming off his best rushing game as a pro and New Orleans’ defense is allowing over 130 yards per game on the ground.
• Spencer Rattler Under 182.5 Pass Yards (-113). With their depleted receiving corps, look for the Saints to feature a lot of Alvin Kamara and limit Rattler’s pass attempts.

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