The Seattle Seahawks will kick off the first year of the post-Pete Carroll era by hosting rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season.
The Seahawks finished the 2023 season at 9-8 but still missed the playoffs. They brought in former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to fix their defense in hopes of pushing them over the edge and back into the postseason. However, FanDuel Sportsbook still has them as +156 underdogs to make the playoffs.
On the other side, the Broncos went 8-9 but are widely expected to take a step back in Sean Payton’s second season at the helm after cutting Russell Wilson in the offseason. They have the third-best odds (+850) to finish 2024 with the worst regular-season record and appear headed for their eighth straight losing season.
Neither one of these teams appears to be ready to make a run to the Super Bowl based on their long NFL futures odds, but both should be optimistic about their chances to start the year 1-0. Here, we will preview the matchup and share our best Broncos vs. Seahawks betting picks to target at our favorite NFL betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024 (Week 1)
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Lumen Field (Seattle)
- Watch: CBS
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Broncos +215, Seahawks -260
- Spread: Broncos +5.5 (-102), Seahawks -5.5 (-120)
- Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-110/-110)
Note: Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and subject to change.
Broncos vs. Seahawks Moneyline
The Seahawks could work their way into a wide-open race for the NFC West title this year if the San Francisco 49ers continue to be plagued by various issues (contracts, injuries, etc.) and the Los Angeles Rams have another slow start.
While Seattle has an explosive receiving corps and a quarterback in Geno Smith who is willing to take risks, its ground game needs to improve after ranking just 27th in rushing yards per game (92.9) last year.
Macdonald will also try to improve a unit that surrendered the ninth-most points per game (23.6) last year after ranking 22nd in passing yards allowed and 31st in rushing yards allowed.
Meanwhile, Payton’s Broncos also have plenty of areas for improvement on both sides of the ball after ranking 20th in scoring and 27th in points allowed. They struggled in nearly every aspect of the game and seemingly downgraded their roster in the offseason, making this a likely rebuilding year in Denver.
That said, the franchise has hope after taking Nix with the 12th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He finished third in last year’s Heisman voting and took more snaps than any player in the history of college football, so he’s less likely to feel uncomfortable on the big stage than a typical rookie.
That said, we like the Seahawks at home on the moneyline. They’ve been more successful than the Broncos lately and are poised for improvement this year under Macdonald, while Denver seems headed in the opposite direction. Seattle also has one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL, which could rattle Nix in his NFL debut.
Broncos vs. Seahawks Spread
One area of particular interest for the Seahawks is how new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will affect the passing game.
Grubb spent the past two seasons as the OC under Kalen DeBoer at the University of Washington, where he helped turn quarterback Michael Penix Jr. into a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Washington led the country in passing yards per game last year and loved to aggressively push the ball downfield. Meanwhile, Smith ranked just 29th in air yards per attempt last year. Seattle’s talented receiving corps and Grubb’s affinity for explosive plays could help Smith return to the borderline top-10 status he enjoyed in 2022.
Meanwhile, Nix averaged 293.4 yards and threw 12 touchdowns with two interceptions in five regular-season games against ranked opponents during his final year at the University of Oregon. His team went 3-2 in those games, with both losses coming to Washington.
While there’s no direct translation from college to the professional ranks, Nix played very well in big situations. Our concern, however, is that there was a gulf between his experience and that of his opponents. He also usually had a talent advantage thanks to Oregon’s outstanding roster.
Payton’s defense performed poorly last year and didn’t add any true impact players. Patrick Surtain II is great, but the Seahawks’ defense is just as talented and has more room to grow thanks to Macdonald.
All things considered, we’re eyeing Seattle on the spread (-5.5), as it’s capable of winning this game by at least a touchdown.
Broncos vs. Seahawks Total
The Seahawks’ average time of possession last year (excluding overtime) was 26 minutes and 38 seconds – the worst mark in the league. The majority of that can be blamed on their ineffective running game and third-down inefficiency (36.2%, 23rd in the NFL).
The Broncos experienced a similar issue, ranking 19th in average time of possession, 19th in rushing yards per game and 22nd in third-down conversion percentage.
Accordingly, this game will likely feature a lot of punts and stalled drives, making the Under an attractive play.
Macdonald oversaw the NFL’s best defense last year in Baltimore and is going to make life very difficult for Nix, while Vance Joseph is back as Denver’s defensive coordinator. The Broncos’ defense finished last year strong, allowing 20.8 points per game after their bye week, which would have ranked 10th over the course of a full season.
The total could swing either way, but we like the Under in this market. Nix’s transition to the NFL is a concern, and both teams will likely lean on the running game early as they search for their offensive flow.
Broncos vs. Seahawks Props
- D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown (+150)
Rome Odunze, who was WR1 at the University of Washington, caught 12 touchdowns in 13 regular-season games last year. Smith has a similar playing style to Penix Jr. and should favor his No. 1 receiver, Metcalf, based on Grubb’s time at Washington.
Metcalf has scored a Week 1 touchdown in three of the last four seasons, so he tends to start strong. Denver ranked 21st in red zone touchdown percentage allowed last year and will likely have a hard time keeping Seattle out of the end zone, making this prop bet a worthwhile risk at plus odds.
- Bo Nix Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-114)
The Seahawks play in arguably the toughest venue in the league. The raucous fans provide an unforgiving environment for anyone in the NFL, much less a rookie quarterback who was the sixth-best in his class by draft position.
It’s unlikely that the Broncos will try to force their first-year QB to carry the offense on his own, which should lead to them calling a higher percentage of run plays. Nix will also need to adjust to the speed of the NFL and won’t have his usual experience to fall back on, so he may need a few drives to find his footing.
Broncos vs. Seahawks Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Seahawks (-260). The Seahawks were better than the Broncos last year and have more reasons for optimism, whether it be their roster or new additions to their coaching staff. We like them to defend their home stadium.
- Spread: Seahawks -5.5 (-120). Nix was great in college last year but will no longer be the best or most experienced player on the field. Seattle also has lots of room to improve on defense and should be more explosive in the passing game than it was last season.
- Over/Under: Under 41.5 (-110). Both sides have their merits, but we believe that both offenses will want to establish the run, which will lead to less explosive plays. We also think Nix will struggle in his pro debut.
- Prop 1: D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown (+150). Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb featured his No. 1 receiver heavily last year, and we expect him to do the same with Metcalf, who has a knack for finding the end zone in Week 1.
- Prop 2: Bo Nix Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-114). Nix is walking into one of the toughest road environments in the NFL. Combine that with Macdonald’s defensive prowess, and we expect tough sledding for the rookie in his first taste of NFL action.
Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images
