Detroit Lions vs Houston Texans Week 10 SNF: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Lions are heading to Houston on a serious burner, as Detroit is leading the NFL in points per game (32.3) along with being fifth in points allowed per game (18.5). Detroit has not lost on the road (4-0) and is averaging 30.5 points per game away from Ford Field this season.

However, this has all the makings of a letdown spot for the Lions. Detroit is coming off an impressive win in Green Bay, but now must go back on the road for a meeting with the well-rested Texans, who haven’t played since Halloween.

The biggest question surrounding Houston is whether or not No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins will return from the IR this week, which would be a huge boon to its offense. Collins has missed three straight games with a hamstring injury but was averaging 113.4 receiving yards per game before going down.

If he does return, look for him to give the slumping C.J. Stroud a boost and help exploit Detroit’s 29th-ranked pass defense (250.8 yards allowed per game) along with emerging No. 2 wide receiver Tank Dell.

The Texans could have trouble slowing Detroit’s offense without EDGE rusher Will Anderson Jr., who is nursing an ankle injury. But the Lions are more of a running team with the two-headed monster of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, and Houston ranks 12th against the run, allowing only 114.2 rushing yards per game.

Look for the Texans to hold onto home-field advantage (they’re 4-0 at home this year) and knock off Detroit in an upset on Sunday night.

While we already like the Texans to win outright, we like them to cover the spread even more. Houston is 7-2 against a +3.5 spread, including 4-0 at home.

This spread could shift to Texans +3 if Anderson is good to go. Even if he’s not, Houston has excelled in close games this season, especially at home. Six of the Texans’ nine games have been decided by six points or less (including all four of their home games), and they are 5-1 in those games.

Backing Houston to stay within a field goal is well worth the wager, even if the Texans end up losing.

This total is a really high bar to clear, but these are two of the most potent offenses in football. The Over has hit in four of Detroit’s past five games, as the Lions are averaging 39.2 points per game during that span.

However, Houston has played close, low-scoring games all season. The Under is 7-2 in their games this year, including 4-0 at home.

Detroit’s defense has quietly been one of the league’s stingiest, ranking fifth in fewest points allowed per game (18.5). This will be a tough matchup for the Texans, who’ve topped 24 points only twice this year.

Accordingly, we recommend the Under in a game that could have fewer points than expected.

Jared Goff Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-114)

Goff has been remarkably efficient during Detroit’s winning streak and has not surpassed 30 pass attempts since Week 2. Against Houston’s formidable run defense, however, Goff will likely need to throw more than usual on Sunday night.

The Lions haven’t had to play from behind much this year, but they could find themselves behind in this one, which would result in a more pass-heavy game script. They’ll also get No. 2 wideout Jameson Williams back from his two-game PED suspension, which should make their passing attack more potent even against Houston’s third-ranked pass defense.

The Texans have forced opposing quarterbacks to attempt 30-plus passes in six straight games and all four of their home games, so look for Goff to air it out to keep pace with Stroud.

Joe Mixon Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Teams haven’t run much against Detroit because they’ve often fallen into massive holes. When they have put the ball on the ground, however, they’ve been very effective.

The Lions rank 27th in rushing yards per attempt allowed (4.8), making this a juicy matchup for Joe Mixon. Not only is Mixon averaging 4.8 yards per carry this year, but he’s also topped 100 rushing yards in five of six games this season, including his last four.

Mixon’s been getting a ton of volume, averaging a career-high 21 attempts per game. If he gets a similar workload on Sunday, he should easily clear the Over on this prop.

• Moneyline: Texans (+154). Picking Houston to upset the white-hot Lions may not make much sense to some, but this is a good bounce-back spot for the Texans at home.
• Spread: Texans +3.5 (-112). Even if the Texans lose, they should at least keep the game close and cover +3.5.
• Over/Under: Under 48.5 (-108). These teams are great on both sides of the ball, but we’re banking on Houston’s defense cooling off Detroit’s prolific offense.
• Jared Goff Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-114). Goff should need to throw more than usual this week, especially if the Lions fall behind.
• Joe Mixon Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115). Mixon is having the best year of his career and should feast on Detroit’s porous run defense.