Dolphins-Chiefs Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 5 (Week 9)
- Time: 2:30 p.m CET / 9:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Frankfurt Stadium (Germany)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Dolphins +115, Chiefs -135
- Spread: Dolphins +2 (-110), Chiefs -2 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins square off in a potential AFC Championship Game preview and the NFL’s first-ever trip to Frankfurt, Germany.
Heading into Week 9 in the 2023 NFL schedule, the Chiefs are the odds-on Super Bowl favorites at +500. The Dolphins are fourth in futures odds at +900 and the second-most-likely AFC team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy
Moneyline
This is a tough matchup to analyze because the strengths and weaknesses of each team are completely different, but we believe Kansas City’s moneyline is the most viable play.
Let’s start with Miami. The Dolphins lead the league in points scored per game (33.9) and have scored at least 31 points in three of their last four outings. They also lead the league in passing yards (301.5) and rushing yards (151.8) per game, though the running game has only managed 123 total yards over the last two weeks combined.
Tua Tagovailoa has spent most of the season near or at the top of the MVP odds list, and he’s the favorite to win the award after eight weeks of football. His 2,416 passing yards and 18 passing touchdowns are both tops in the league, and he’s also fifth in QBR (67.9).
As many plaudits as the 25-year-old has received, there’s an argument that Tyreek Hill is the real MVP of the team. He recently became the only player in the Super Bowl era to record more than 1,000 receiving yards over the first eight games of a season, and he’s on pace to obliterate Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964 yards.
Hill has also scored eight touchdowns, finding the end zone in every game but one.
As excellent as Miami’s offense has been, the defense has been the complete opposite. The Dolphins are 25th in points allowed per game (25.5) and 28th in red zone touchdown percentage surrendered (65.5%). They’re fifth in sacks per game and can beat up opposing quarterbacks, but they rarely convert those into turnovers (one per game – 24th). Their lackluster defense explains why they’re 0-2 against teams with a winning record thus far.
The Chiefs are almost unrecognizable compared to years past, at least on offense. Despite Patrick Mahomes ranking second in QBR and third in passing yards, the offense is 12th in scoring (23.4 points per game) and Mahomes is one interception away from tying the league lead of nine.
Kansas City has also struggled in the red zone, scoring just over one touchdown for every two trips (17th). That is a real concern going against a Miami offense that leads the NFL in red zone scoring (74.2% of entries).
Where the defending champs have been excellent is on defense. They allow just 16.1 points per game (second) and are third in sacks per game. They also have the second-best pass defense, though they’ve struggled to contain the run.
The trip to Germany is an equalizer in the sense that both teams will be in unfamiliar territory. However, we trust the championship core of Mahomes, Andy Reid and Travis Kelce more than the Dolphins.
Plus, the Chiefs have only lost back-to-back games three times in the Mahomes era, so look for them to bounce back from a surprising road loss to the Denver Broncos last week.
Point Spread
We believe Kansas City’s spread (-2) is a strong play even though this should be a close game.
Despite Tagovailoa and Mahomes leading the league in MVP odds, both have been very turnover-prone. Tua has tossed five interceptions in his last five games and at least one in six of eight outings, while Mahomes has thrown six picks in his last five games and at least one in six of eight. That precedent combined with the unfamiliar surroundings means that there will probably be at least a couple of turnovers on Sunday.
At the end of the day, this is an offense versus defense matchup, albeit with a clear distinction. The “defensive” team also has the best quarterback in the world on its side, and that’s enough to win our support.
The Chiefs only need to win by a field goal to cover, and that is certainly doable for the defending Super Bowl champs.
Over/Under
Calling the Over/Under is tough since both teams are traveling across numerous time zones and bodies of water to reach their final destination. We’d lean Under, but find this market difficult to pick from.
The Miami Over is 5-3, while the Kansas City Under is 6-2. That unsurprisingly follows the narrative of offense against defense.
The Under is 2-0 in international games this season and has also hit in 59.5% of all games. Until Mahomes’ receivers decide to stop dropping passes, we can’t trust them to score a plethora of points consistently. Similarly, until the Dolphins prove they can beat a top contender, we can’t fully back them either.
There’s a chance that either team puts a late drive together that ruins this bet, but we believe in the Under more than the Over, especially since this is the highest projected total in Week 9.
Player Prop
One of our favorite player props on the board is Tyreek Hill as an anytime touchdown scorer (-105).
Even though we suspect he will end up on the losing side of the matchup, he’s scored at least once in every game except for one this season and is the main focal point of Miami’s offense. He’ll also have internal motivation to be at his best against his former team.
Kansas City’s pass defense has been outstanding, but Hill has simply out-sprinted great coverage for TDs in the past couple of weeks. He’s also incredibly dangerous in the red zone and can score on a variety of routes.
Hill is the most unstoppable wideout in the NFL right now, and we’re not going to doubt him.
Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images
