The Los Angeles Rams will try to stay hot with a fourth straight win when they host the Miami Dolphins in Week 10 of Monday Night Football.
The Rams (4-4) were reportedly on the verge of becoming a trade-deadline seller before winning three straight – a span that includes a 26-20 overtime win in Seattle last week. The Rams have gotten healthier thanks to the return of their two-headed receiving monster of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and have been stingy on defense, allowing just 55 points over that three-game winning streak.
The Dolphins (2-6) are in danger of falling into the abyss in the AFC playoff chase, as they sit in third place in the AFC East and are just a half-game ahead of the lowly New England Patriots. Miami has dropped three straight – including two in a row with franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa – by a combined total of 10 points.
The Rams are one of three NFC teams to win the Super Bowl over the past decade, and Sean McVay has coached them to the big game twice in his impressive eight-season tenure in Los Angeles. But Vegas is still not buying the Rams’ chances of making noise, since they are tied with the Arizona Cardinals for eighth-shortest odds to reach the Super Bowl from the NFC (+2500).
Here is how we expect this game to play out and how to wager it at our favorite NFL betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Monday, Nov. 11, 2024 (Week 10)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
- Watch: ABC/ESPN+
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Dolphins +100, Rams -120
- Spread: Dolphins +1 (-108), Rams -1 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-108/-112)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Dolphins vs. Rams Moneyline
Los Angeles is just a half-game behind the first-place Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West along with being tied with the defending NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers. But the Rams have quietly played like one of the best teams in football over the past three weeks — a period that’s coincided with them returning from their bye week.
The Rams have also played close games all season, as evidenced by six of their eight games having been decided by one score. Los Angeles is 3-3 overall in one-score games and 2-1 in one-score games at SoFi Stadium, including its three-point win over the 49ers in Week 2.
The Dolphins have been better offensively since Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve. They’ve scored 27 points in each of his two games back from his devastating Week 2 concussion. But they still haven’t broken the 30-point barrier this year and are averaging 21 points per game in his four starts this season.
So whereas the Rams have found ways to win close games – a function of McVay’s stellar coaching – the Dolphins have found ways to lose, especially over the past three weeks. Miami has led at halftime in each of its past three games yet has dropped each of those games.
Miami’s defense has been solid this season, ranking seventh in yards-against per game (303.1) and fourth against the pass (183.1). The Rams offense tends to throw more than it runs, but lead back Kyren Williams is still averaging 20 attempts per game and could exploit Miami’s 24th-ranked rushing defense (133.9 yards per game).
This game should be close and entertaining, even despite the record discrepancies. But when in doubt, back the team that is better coached, which, in this matchup, is the Rams. It also helps that Los Angeles is 3-1 at SoFi Stadium this year.
Dolphins vs. Rams Spread
This spread is conducive to wagering the favorite since it’s just a 1.5-point spread. Unlike many of the Rams’ opponents, the Dolphins fan base is not known for traveling, which means the road fans are not likely to wreak havoc on the Rams offense at SoFi.
The Rams have covered a 1.5-point spread in each of their wins this season, and essentially the only way it doesn’t cover is if the Dolphins win. Thus, if you are going to bet the Rams to win, you need to wager them to cover -1.5.
Dolphins vs. Rams Over/Under
The Dolphins have been more potent with Tagovailoa under center, but the Rams defense has been a sneakily stingy unit all year. Outside of their Week 2 loss to the Cardinals where they allowed 41 points, the Rams have not given up more than 26 points in a game.
We detailed Miami’s offensive struggles, but McVay may opt to run the ball with Williams to keep the Dolphins offense on the sidelines. But Miami’s defense has also been better than advertised and is allowing just 23.4 points per game.
A 50-point game is a high bar to clear based on how Los Angeles’ defense has played – and since the Dolphins are still 31st in the NFL in points per game (15.5 points per game) – the Under is the play.
Dolphins vs. Rams Props
Kyren Williams Over 20.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Williams has surpassed this number in four straight games, which coincides with the Rams’ recent winning streak. Again, the Dolphins rushing defense has struggled this season, which means McVay, Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense may look to exploit that.
The Rams don’t really have a No. 2 option running the ball considering Blake Corum is second in carries with 21. That means if Los Angeles plays from ahead, as we’d expect, Williams will get a heavy volume of carries in the second half.
Thus, we will back Williams to go over 21 carries.
De’Von Achane Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Achane has surpassed 58 rushing yards in three straight games and four times this season, including three out of Tagovailoa’s four starts. The Rams are 24th in the NFL in rushing-yards allowed per game (135.1), which means Miami should put up rushing yards.
Achane’s Rushing + Receiving prop is 103.5, which is a high bar to clear. But 58-plus yards on the ground is not much since Achane is averaging 70 rushing yards per game in games started by Tagovailoa.
There is some alarm about Achane reaching this prop if the Dolphins fall behind, but they have built leads in the first half of each of the past three games. Achane surpassing this rushing prop should be attainable.
Dolphins vs. Rams Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Rams (-120). The Rams are rolling, and the Dolphins are reeling, and given the coaching discrepancy between the squads (and these odds) we’ll back Los Angeles to stay hot at home.
- Spread: Rams -1.5 (-112). If the Rams win, they will almost definitely do so by two points. The odds difference is enough to lay.
- Over/Under: Under 50.5 (-108). These teams are staunch defensively, and the Dolphins have struggled to put up points all season. A 27-21 win for either side would still cause this to hit.
- Kyren Williams Over 20.5 Rush Attempts (-110). Williams is averaging about 20 carries per game and has surpassed this prop in each of Los Angeles’ past four games. He’s about the only Rams running back to get consistent touches, which means he should go over this total relative ease.
- De’Von Achane Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115). Achane has topped 60 yards in three straight games and in three of Tagovailoa’s four starts this season.