Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Monday, Jan. 15
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Eagles -162, Buccaneers +136
- Spread: Eagles -3 (-105), Buccaneers +3 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will battle in the final Wild Card Round game of the 2023-24 NFL schedule.
A few significant storylines have been brewing around the league lately, and the Eagles’ downfall has been one of the biggest.
Philadelphia began the season with a purpose following its crushing loss in Super Bowl LVII, starting the year 10-1. However, the wheels came off down the stretch as the Eagles lost five of their final six games.
Their defense allowed too many explosive plays, and their offense was battered.
It was surprising to see Philadelphia open as a 2.5-point favorite over an average Buccaneers team, but the Eagles are in free fall.
Tampa Bay punched its playoff ticket by winning the NFC South, the worst division in football. Still, there is a roadmap to victory for the Bucs on Monday night.
Philadelphia is tied for the fifth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1800. Tampa Bay is much further down the board at 60/1 in the futures market.
Moneyline
The moneyline favors the Eagles, but an upset is a viable betting option.
Philadelphia has been one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last two months. The Eagles are coming off back-to-back humiliating losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants, and their strong start now feels like a distant memory.
Philadelphia’s primary flaw has been the secondary. The Eagles have the second-worst passing
defense in the NFL, allowing 252.7 yards per game. This puts them in the same company as the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Chargers.
The team’s two corners, James Bradberry and Darius Slay, have been routinely embarrassed by opponents, putting too much pressure on the offense.
Tampa Bay also has one of the league’s worst passing defenses in the league, but at least the Bucs have been dominant in the red zone. The same can’t be said for Philadelphia.
The Eagles are more talented on paper, so they should win if at their best. Philly is trending down, however, while Tampa Bay has momentum after going 5-1 to close out the season.
Based on what we’ve seen, Baker Mayfield is good enough to light up the Eagles’ passing defense. Mayfield led the Buccaneers to their fourth straight playoff appearance after ranking top 10 in passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28).
Point Spread
The Eagles opened a three-point road favorite on the spread, but we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay.
This isn’t the first time these two teams have competed this season. Philadelphia traveled to Florida in Week 3 and beat the Buccaneers 25-11.
However, the score doesn’t reflect how the Eagles could have lost that game.
Tampa Bay’s offense wasn’t a finished product. Its defense gave Hurts and company some trouble, forcing two turnovers. However, the offense wasn’t able to capitalize.
With the Buccaneers’ offense finding its stride and the defense coming off a shutout, it’s hard not to take the points with Tampa.
According to BetMGM, home underdogs in the playoffs have been profitable over the past 10 years. They’ve gone 8-3-2 against the spread during that time.
It could be a long night for the Birds if Philadelphia doesn’t have DeVonta Smith (ankle), A.J. Brown (knee) and Hurts (finger) at full strength.
Over/Under
The Over/Under opened at 43.5 points, but we don’t want anything to do with the Over on Monday.
The Bucs are one of the best Under teams in the NFL, going 11-6 in this market. The Eagles are 8-9 to the Under, which may be a surprise given their potent offense and defensive flaws.
Yet, Philadelphia’s offense has gone downhill. Nick Sirianni’s team ended the season with a 3-2 record to the Under and has a lot of offensive question marks.
Brown left Sunday’s 27-10 loss to the Giants with a knee injury. It isn’t believed to be severe, per NFL Network, but he was limping off the field.
Hurts also left the loss with a finger injury, which could affect his throwing. Smith missed Week 18 with an ankle injury but is expected to play.
The Eagles’ offense declined in the second half of the season, scoring fewer than 20 points in four of their final five games.
Tampa Bay has the third-best red zone defense in the NFL. The Buccaneers have surrendered touchdowns just 42% of the time, according to TeamRankings.com. They have been even better at home, with a 33% rate.
Tampa Bay’s offense improved at the end of the season, but it still relies on short passes and running the ball. This style of play will keep the clock moving and limit the points on the board, making the Under the better play.
Player Prop
A playable prop bet is Rachaad White Over 23.5 receiving yards (-120).
White has been a catalyst for the Buccaneers’ offense all season. His outstanding production was the main reason the team performed so well at the end of the year.
Tampa Bay commits to the ground game with the running back, but its offensive line is shaky. For White to get involved against Philadelphia, it must be in the passing game.
He has surpassed this line in three of his past five games and is averaging 8.6 yards per reception this season. In his previous matchup against the Eagles, he caught three passes for 24 yards, exceeding this line.
Philadelphia’s passing defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and White often lines up in the slot and attacks teams vertically. The Eagles’ front seven is talented and can force Mayfield into quick passing situations.
White is one of the staples of the Buccaneers’ quick game, so look for him to be active here.
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images
