Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 22 (Week 7)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa Bay, FL)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Falcons +120, Buccaneers -142
- Spread: Falcons +2.5 (-110), Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 NFL schedule features an NFC South battle in Week 7 between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta travels to Tampa Bay for this divisional matchup as a slight underdog.
Both teams are desperate for a win in a wide-open division. Three of the four teams are tied with three wins, while the winless Carolina Panthers rest at the bottom.
The Falcons have performed on defense in 2023 but struggle to score points. They haven’t scored over 20 points in four weeks, and quarterback Desmond Ridder is inconsistent.
The Buccaneers have also won with defense this season, but Baker Mayfield has been efficient considering his lackluster offensive line.
Neither team has a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds in the futures market are +9000, while Atlanta’s sit at +10000.
Moneyline
The moneyline odds slightly favor the home team here, suggesting that this game will be a battle for four quarters.
The Buccaneers are the better play here. Not only are they at home, but they also have a superior roster to the Falcons.
Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t been dynamic, but it does find ways to win. Mayfield has been much better than expected, proving capable of carrying the team at times.
The Buccaneers try to run the football, but they don’t have the offensive line to open up significant holes for Rachaad White. White is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season and will likely struggle against a good Atlanta front seven.
Expect the Falcons to shut down the run, so Mayfield must have a big day throwing the ball downfield. If Tampa Bay finds rhythm in the passing game, it can beat Atlanta’s secondary.
The Falcons are better against the run than the pass and haven’t been tested vertically much this season. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin present many challenges for Atlanta, which will make the biggest difference in Sunday’s outcome.
Point Spread
The spread is set at 2.5 points in favor of the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s -2.5 spread is this game’s most viable betting option for various reasons.
Three points represent a field goal in football, a critical number. With the spread at 2.5 points, the Buccaneers only need to win by a field goal to cover.
The main problem for the Falcons this year has been their quarterback. Ridder can’t be trusted over the more reliable Mayfield in this matchup.
Ridder is coming off a 24-16 loss to the Washington Commanders where he threw for 307 yards, but the box score was much worse. He only averaged 6.5 yards per throw and threw three interceptions, giving him a QBR of 32.1.
Ridder has five picks in the past three weeks and is bound for another interception on Sunday, which will cost Atlanta in a close matchup.
Over/Under
The Over/Under is 37.5 points, one of the lowest totals of the season so far. The Under is still appealing in this matchup between two inconsistent offenses.
Tampa Bay has many weapons that can create explosive plays in the passing game but hasn’t opened up the playbook consistently in 2023. That was the case last week when the Buccaneers managed just six points against the Detroit Lions.
The Falcons are solid defensively and won’t make things easy for Tampa Bay. Nate Landman, the second-year linebacker out of Colorado, has been exceptional this season for Atlanta. He has frequently prevented big runs by limiting ball carriers at the line of scrimmage.
The Buccaneers have also performed on defense. They held their own against the Lions’ potent offense last week and should step up at home against a softer opponent this week.
Look for the pace of this game to start slow as both teams try to lean on their running backs. This will keep the clock ticking and help solidify the Under.
Player Prop
The best prop bet for this game is Rachaad White Over 13.5 rushing attempts (-114). Even though White hasn’t posted massive numbers, he is a hard runner that Tampa Bay relies on.
White only recorded seven carries against Detroit last week, but that was because the contest got out of reach and the Buccaneers abandoned the run game. However, that shouldn’t be the case this week, as this is expected to be a close contest.
White’s current line at 13.5 is moderate, considering how much Tampa Bay runs the ball. He has exceeded this number in four of five starts this season, making his Over a viable bet.
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
