Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday, Oct. 1 (Week 4)
- Time: 11:30 a.m. BST / 6:30 a.m. EST
- Where: Wembley Stadium (London, UK)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Falcons +136, Jaguars -162
- Spread: Falcons +3 (-110), Jaguars -3 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars will look to snap a two-game skid against the 2-1 Atlanta Falcons in Week 4 of the 2023 NFL Schedule.
Sunday’s first game kicks off from the Jaguars’ home away from home in London. A win for the Jags would be pivotal as they attempt to cash in on their +3200 futures odds down the stretch to win the Super Bowl. Currently tied for first place in the NFC South division, the Falcons aren’t too far behind Jacksonville with +4500 futures odds.
After getting crushed at home by the Houston Texans in Week 3, the Jaguars need to reaffirm that they aren’t the Jaguars of old. In recent years, they’ve performed well and played in exciting games at Wembley, but Atlanta is showing promise with each game.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has a strong foundation leading his offense in young quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Bijan Robinson, setting up an intriguing showdown in the first international game of the season.
Moneyline
Atlanta’s +136 moneyline is a good play in this matchup, as there are too many unknowns around Jacksonville after last week’s blunder against the Texans.
It could have just been an off week for the Jaguars against a division rival last week, but their offensive issues have been concerning, especially in the red zone through the air. Franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been average at best, with only three touchdowns and two interceptions. Star wide receiver Calvin Ridley is still getting comfortable in the offense, and it was evident against Houston. He was held to just three catches for 40 yards.
Defensively, Jacksonville was abysmal against one of the worst offenses in the league, giving up 37 points and 366 total yards. The Jaguars also failed to sack rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud or cause a turnover.
The Falcons shouldn’t have any trouble getting back on track in London after going without a touchdown in their 20-6 loss to the Detroit Lions. The Lions nullified Atlanta’s running game and forced Ridder to throw 38 times, completing 21 passes for only 201 yards. Robinson will be a focus again in Week 4 after helping the Falcons come back to beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 2.
Point Spread
Atlanta with a +3 point spread at -110 odds is a viable bet in this game.
Jacksonville shouldn’t be entirely counted out in this one because it’s still the more talented and proven team. This should be a back-and-forth game on the scoreboard and perhaps even a shootout of sorts.
Lawrence is poised for his first big game of the season and the Falcons’ defense has struggled to stop opponents from scoring. Lesser established units like the Packers in Week 2 managed to move down the field with impressive drives before being bottled up late. With rookie running back Travis Bigsby starting to get more involved behind Travis Etienne, especially in red zone situations, it will significantly help the Jaguars’ offense.
No matter who comes out on top in the first London game of the year, it could come down to a field goal.
Over/Under
With both offenses primed for big games, the Over 43.5 is the preferred play on the total.
Jacksonville has played in London nine times already, and the winning team never scored fewer than 21 points. Accordingly, both offenses should be good for at least 20 points in this one. These two defenses have had trouble getting stops, and punts should be relatively sparse with both offenses coming into their own.
Both teams have also shown they can rally back even if they get outscored early. The Jaguars still managed to score 17 points last week despite getting shut out in the first half, for instance, so both sides will battle until the end and keep pushing on offense.
If Lawrence finally has the breakout game that everyone’s been waiting for, that will force Ridder to throw to keep pace and help hit the Over.
Player Prop
None of the player props in this game are very trustworthy, but the best options of the bunch are Bijan Robinson Over 64.5 rushing yards at -114 and Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -138.
Lawrence has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game this season, but it’s only a matter of time. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and will figure out his red zone issues eventually, especially after averaging 1.5 touchdowns per game last season. This should be the week that he finally clicks with his receivers.
Meanwhile, Robinson has been a beast on the ground so far, racking up 213 yards on just 39 carries. That translates to 5.5 yards per carry and 71 rushing yards per game. In an offense that loves to run the ball, Robinson should get plenty of opportunities in this game and has a great chance to hit the Over on his rushing yards prop.
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
