Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 29 (Week 8)
- Time: 12:00 p.m. CST / 1:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Titans +130, Falcons -155
- Spread: Titans +2.5 (+100), Falcons -2.5 (-120)
- Total: Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Subject to change.
How many more franchise players will the Tennessee Titans trade away before the trade deadline, in what can only be explained as the organization hitting the reset button? That’s likely the question Titans fans are asking themselves after the team traded Kevin Byard – a two-time All-Pro safety who has been a pivotal piece to their defense – to Philly earlier this week.
This isn’t the first instance of Tennessee trading away franchise players unexpectedly, as the team dealt A.J. Brown to the Eagles during the 2022 NFL Draft. This season, Brown has looked nothing short of elite, tallying five consecutive games of at least 125 receiving yards.
Now, Derrick Henry is reportedly on the trade block, too. Henry is amongst the best running backs in the NFL and could push a Super Bowl-contending team over the proverbial hump.
However, the rest of the Titans players have to worry about their Week 8 game against the Atlanta Falcons, who are atop the NFC South after last week’s win in Tampa Bay. Byard’s absence will be significant, but will it be significant enough to help Atlanta’s offense put points on the board?
Moneyline
We can expect a defensive-centric game, as both Tennessee (17.3 PPG) and Atlanta (16.4 PPG) rank among the bottom eight in scoring offense. Further, the Falcons have failed 16 or fewer points in four of their past five games, while the same can be said about the Titans in three of their past four.
Both teams have some solid players at the non-QB skill positions offensively, as Atlanta has Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, while Tennessee deploys Henry, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyjae Spears. That talent has not been utilized as much as it could be, though, and most of that can be attributed to poor quarterback play.
Falcons second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder has the second-worst PFF passing grade of any quarterback who has played at least 50% of his team’s total snaps. While Ryan Tannehill hasn’t graded out quite as poorly as Ridder, he has already thrown six interceptions with just two touchdown passes in six games, tied for the fewest TD passes by any quarterback with at least four picks this season.
However, Tannehill likely won’t start due to an ankle injury, which will put rookie Will Levis under center with third-string passer Malik Willis likely to take some snaps, as well. Levis had minimal preseason action due to an injury of his own, which could make the transition even more difficult for Levis and the rest of the offense.
If it comes down to Ridder versus Levis/Willis, this game will likely come down to the better defensive unit. The Falcons have the eighth-best overall defense grade and best rush defense grade in the NFL, per PFF, while Tennessee’s defense profiled as a middling unit even before trading away Byard.
Point Spread
Atlanta is just 2-5 against the spread this season, while Tennessee is 3-3 ATS. Despite a concerning record, it isn’t hard to get behind the Falcons in this spot as short road favorites.
The Titans were already struggling before trading one of the best players on their team. Now, this weakened defensive unit could falter, even against an Atlanta offense that would most aptly be described as inconsistent, at best.
Further, as far as matchups are concerned, this couldn’t be much better for the Falcons, who allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game on just 3.7 yards per carry. Henry and Spears are the biggest weapons for Tennessee and should see heavy usage in this game, especially if the rookie Levis gets the start, which should play right into the strength of this Atlanta defense.
While Hopkins is still a terrific talent for Tennessee, he’s only a threat if there’s a quarterback on the field who can get the ball to him consistently. That’ll be a tough ask on Sunday, as Levis is likely to make several rookie mistakes that the Falcons should capitalize on.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this game sits at an extremely low total of 35.5 points on Caesars Sportsbook, which makes sense given the offensive struggles for each side entering Week 8.
Even though this game projects as a lower-scoring affair, expect Atlanta to attack the Titans’ secondary deep with Byard off to Philadelphia. The Falcons have enough weapons in Robinson, London and Pitts to exploit this weakened Titans unit and put some points on the board.
Because of that mismatch, the Over is the slight lean from us in this matchup. That said, with so much uncertainty surrounding Tennessee’s offense, the better plays are the spread and moneyline fading this shaky Titans roster.
Player Prop
Pitts has started to find some semblance of a groove over the past few weeks, even if it is still a lesser output than many expect from the former Florida star.
Pitts’ receiving player prop line is at 33.5 yards on Caesars as of Thursday, a number he’s cleared in four of his past five games despite Ridder’s sporadic play. Even more encouraging is the volume of targets he’s seen thrown his way in that stretch.
Pitts has been targeted 35 times over that five-game run, with an average of 7.3 targets over his last three contests. While it is never fun relying on a low-end starting quarterback to make the right reads and throws, there seems to be enough value here to take a swing on the talented tight end, especially against this suspect Titans secondary.
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