Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: New York Giants at Washington Commanders
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 19 (Week 11)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: FedExField (Landover, MD)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Giants +328, Commanders -430
- Spread: Giants +9 (-110), Commanders -9 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 37 (-110/-110)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Subject to change.
New York and Washington will face off for the second time this season in an NFC East battle. Needless to say, the 2023 NFL regular season has not gone too well for either team.
The Commanders hold a 4-6 record and are on the outside of the playoff picture. Despite sitting within striking distance of a wild card spot, they traded away their two-best pass rushers.
Meanwhile, the Giants are currently playing their third-string quarterback, Tommy DeVito.
For many reasons, DeVito has little chance of turning New York’s season around.
First, DeVito is merely a rookie and has very little experience at the professional level.
Additionally, the Giants severely lack talent at the skill positions and undoubtedly have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
Moneyline
Washington is a heavy home favorite, while the Giants are huge road underdogs.
So much for the strong defense the New York Giants were playing between Weeks 6 and 8. They gave up 30 points to the Raiders and 49 points to the Cowboys over the past two weeks.
To make matters worse, New York lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the remainder of the season.
Although he isn’t much more than a low-end starter, his absence throws another wrench into the Giants’ offense.
With the exception of their unexpected offensive outburst against the Arizona Cardinals, the Giants have posted an average of 9.67 points per game.
Further issues plague their offensive line, which has allowed sacks on 15.21% of their plays. For reference, that is nearly five percent higher than the next-worst team, Tennessee (10.82%).
Even though the Giants won their last matchup against Washington in Week 7, don’t expect a repeat performance.
The Commanders won’t blow out New York, but they should secure the win here.
Point Spread
Washington enters this NFC East matchup as a nine-point favorite against the Giants.
The Commanders are 0-3-1 against the spread at home, while New York holds a 1-5 record ATS on the road.
This season, the Commanders have not won a single game by nine or more points.
While they have kept most of their losses close, they have failed to pull away from teams in victories. Say what you want about the Giants’ defense but they held Washington to just seven points in their first matchup.
New York won’t score many points through DeVito, but Saquon Barkley’s 5.4 yards per rush average in his past two games could give the Giants just enough life offensively to hang around.
Ultimately, a nine-point spread is way too much in a game that features two teams with very little offensive talent. The Giants +9 is our pick for this one.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this divisional matchup sits at 37 points, a low total relative to other games in Week 7.
Washington has a 5-5 Over record this season, with a 7-2-1 record against this line. Meanwhile, the Giants have a 2-8 Over record and are 4-5 versus this line.
The last time these two teams played was a punt fest. There were 18 total punts and only 21 points scored.
The Giants scored two touchdowns, courtesy of Tyrod Taylor, while Washington struggled mightily converting on third downs (1-for-15) with Sam Howell under center.
Washington ranks 29th in opponent passing yards and 31st in opponent passing touchdowns per game, giving most opponents a perfect blueprint to dissect the Commanders’ defense.
However, New York has an equally poor offense, especially with a third-string quarterback starting just his third career game.
New York’s defense has collapsed in the past two weeks, but its biggest weakness (rush defense) will be mitigated by Washington’s nonexistent run game (28th in rushing yards per game).
Ultimately, this should be another punt fest. Thirty-seven points is a low total but still too high for these teams.
Player Prop
In a game that should feature very little offensive production and even less scoring, we are still backing the Over on Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards player prop line of 68.5 yards.
Barkley faced off against the Commanders a few weeks ago and finished with 77 rushing yards on 21 attempts (3.7 yards per rush).
The Commanders did have some individual talent on their D-line (Montez Sweat, Chase Young and Jonathan Allen), despite not having much to show for it this season (21st in opponent rushing yards per game).
However, circumstances have changed in Washington: The Commanders moved Sweat and Young before the trade deadline, weakening their defensive line.
In Week 9, the Commanders allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to rush for 87 yards on just nine attempts (9.7 rushing yards per attempt).
The following week, Washington gave up 107 rushing yards on 25 combined rush attempts to Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet for an average of 4.3 yards per rush.
Even though Young and Sweat served more as pass rushers, their absence will hurt the defensive line for Washington.
With more opportunities for the Giants offensively comes more touches for Barkley.
Washington will continue struggling defensively, and its run defense will plummet from now until the end of the season.
As long as Barkley reaches double-digit carries, we like the odds for him to hit the Over here.
Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images
