How Does Home-Field Advantage Impact NFL Betting?

By Henry Palattella , Tyler Maher
Editor , Editor

Expert Reviewed

Mo Egger Sports Betting, NFL, College Football
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How Does Home-Field Advantage Impact NFL Betting?

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When it comes to North American sports betting, the NFL is the undisputed king. While the regular season only lasts 18 weeks, each week features plenty of games to bet on.

Then there are myriad factors to consider when making a bet. Who’s injured? Who has the better record? And perhaps the most basic but most important one – who’s at home?

Playing at home has some latent benefits for home teams. They get to sleep in their own beds. Referees sometimes show some home bias. And, most importantly, they get to play in front of a raucous home crowd.

With all of that said, let’s dive deeper into how home-field advantage affects NFL betting.

Spread Betting Home-Field Advantage

The best way to see the effect of home-field advantage in the NFL is by looking at the spread.

A common adage is that home-field advantage in the NFL is worth three points (a field goal) on the spread. So if the Dallas Cowboys are 3-point favorites at home against the Miami Dolphins, then the teams would be about even on a neutral field.

That said, home-field advantage in the NFL appears to be going away, as the average home line has been slowly shrinking since 2007. In 2019, home teams went 104-137-10 (43.2%) against the spread, marking the lowest ATS winning percentage in NFL history.

That wasn’t just a fluke, either. Home teams have had a losing record against the spread in five of the last six years.

Why is home-field advantage disappearing? A couple of factors seem to be at play.

One is the expansion of instant replay and the review system, both of which have changed the fabric of refereeing and reduced home-field advantage. Home teams no longer get calls like they used to.

Another explanation could be how much easier travel is now, as almost every team travels on a private jet that provides players maximum comfort. Team buses have also evolved and are quite luxurious.

Or maybe it’s due to teams expanding their sleep science divisions to help athletes feel just as comfortable on the road as at home. With better nutrition and hydration as well, travel takes less of a toll than it used to.

Regardless, home-field advantage clearly isn’t what it used to be when it comes to betting on the spread in the NFL.

Moneyline Betting Home-Field Advantage

The decline in home-field advantage is noticeable on the moneyline as well.

In 2019, NFL home teams won just 52% of the time – the lowest mark since 1972. A year later, teams went 127-128 at home, marking the first time in league history that home teams had a losing record. Even LeBron James, who makes picks at DraftKings, has picked up on this trend.

NFL teams have responded with a winning record at home over the past three years, including 2022 when they went 149-114 (.567 winning percentage). However, home teams had a losing record through five weeks in 2023, so home-field dominance isn’t entirely back.

Over/Under Betting Home-Field Advantage

Home-field advantage also impacts the total, as every NFL stadium is different in ways that can have an effect on scoring.

Some teams play in temperature-controlled domes that tend to be conducive for high-scoring games, while others play in outdoor stadiums that are often impacted by inclement weather late in the season.

Case in point: Lambeau Field. While the Green Bay Packers’ stadium plays like a standard field at the start of the season, it turns into a frozen tundra for the last two months of the season, which can lead to some low totals.

Some other teams with noteworthy stadiums that can impact the total are the Cleveland Browns (who play on the shores of Lake Erie), the Kansas City Chiefs (their playoff game against the Dolphins in 2024 had a game-time temperature of -5 degrees) and the Denver Broncos (they play a mile above sea level at the highest altitude in the NFL).

When betting the Over/Under, it’s essential to look at who the home team is and check the weather forecast when applicable.

That said, don’t put too much stock in the weather when betting on the total. In Week 14 of the 2013 NFL season, the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions racked up 54 total points despite playing in blizzard conditions.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings squared off in a dome in Week 12 of the 2023 season and scored only 22 points combined.

A game’s location is important when betting on the total, but it’s just one of many factors to consider along with the caliber of both quarterbacks, the quality of both defenses, etc.

Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images

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Henry Palattella
Henry Palattella Editor

Henry Palattella is a writer and editor based in Cleveland, Ohio, where he can usually be found ranting to his cat about how injuries robbed Grady Sizemore of a Hall of Fame career. He also works as a writer for MLB.com along with freelancing for numerous publications in Northeast Ohio. A native of Erie, Pennsylvania, he is a graduate of Kent State University, where he graduated the same year that Julian Edelman completed his degree.

Tyler Maher
Tyler Maher Editor

Tyler is the Deputy Editor of Forbes Betting, helping expand the vertical since its launch in 2022. Before joining Forbes, he worked for MLB.com, The Game Day and Minute Media. Originally from the Boston area, he graduated from Tufts University in 2015 and currently lives in Providence, RI.

Mo Egger
Mo Egger Sports Betting, NFL, College Football

Mo Egger has worked in radio since 1997, and he's been an on-air personality on ESPN1530 in Cincinnati sine 2007. In 2009, he started hosting the station's afternoon drive show, a position he holds to this day. He also fills in on sports talk programming on 700WLW, where he contributes to coverage of the Cincinnati Reds and Cincinnati Bengals. Mo is also the pre and post game host for University of Cincinnati football and men's basketball broadcasts, and he's the fill-in play-by-play radio voice for UC basketball on radio. Mo has also been a fill-in host on ESPN Radio, and as a writer he's been published extensively in The Athletic, and his work has also appeared on Cincinnati.com and in Bearcat Journal. He has contributed to Forbes Betting since 2022.