Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Week 9: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

If you decided to blindly bet against the Jets on the moneyline every week this year, you’d be swimming in profit right now, especially over their past five weeks. Not only are the Jets 2-6 this season, but they’ve also been favored in three of their past five games.

Thus, New York being favored on a short week is baffling, especially after losing to one of the worst teams in the NFL last weekend. The Texans are a much better team on both sides of the ball, especially lately.

Though reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud gets plenty of attention, Houston’s elite defense ranks second in yards against per game (280.3) and is third against the pass (164.3 yards against per game).

The Jets’ offense has been better now that Nathaniel Hackett is no longer calling plays, but efficiency remains an issue. New York is averaging 310.3 yards per game over its losing streak but has not been able to cash in with points, especially given kicker Greg Zuerlein’s struggles. Zuerlein is last in the NFL in field-goal percentage (60%) and missed field goals (six).

The Texans are without their two best receivers (Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs), but they can still counter with Joe Mixon and a competent rushing attack that averages about 120 yards per game is capable of exploiting the Jets’ 17th-ranked run defense.

Between the Halloween holiday and New Yorkers already bailing on the season, there shouldn’t be much of a home-field advantage for the Jets. Thus, we will absolutely (monster) mash Houston on the moneyline at plus odds this week and suggest you do the same.

Not only are the Texans one of the AFC’s best teams, but they also have a knack for playing close games. Houston is 5-1 in one-possession games and is 6-2 against a +2.5 spread this season.

If we’re backing the Texans to win, we believe they’ll cover +2.5 as well. We’d normally recommend an alternate spread of +3.5 if you’re worried about an underdog not winning outright, but with Zuerlein’s struggles (there’s a chance he could be replaced before Thursday night) there is almost no reason to do so, as both of New York’s wins have come by at least a touchdown.

Take Houston +2.5, but you’re better off grabbing them on the moneyline at plus odds.

While the Jets’ offensive struggles are becoming comical at this point, their last three games have all exceeded 42 points as their defense has collapsed following Robert Saleh’s dismissal.

Houston’s offense has scored at least 22 points in four straight games despite playing three of those games without Collins. The Diggs injury is concerning, but Mixon is averaging more than 100 yards per game and Stroud still has reliable pass-catchers in Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell.

Thus, we expect a 24-20 type of game and recommend the Over.

Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-145)

These are not great odds for an anytime touchdown prop, but they are solid enough and would make an excellent same-game-parlay leg. Mixon has six touchdowns in five games, including five on the ground, and has only failed to score once this season against the Chicago Bears’ stout defense.

The Jets have been gashed in the run game, giving up 10 rushing touchdowns (10th-most in NFL) in total and at least one rushing touchdown in six of their eight games.

Mixon should see a ton of volume in this game with Collins and Diggs sidelined, making him a great bet to find the end zone.

• Check out our full Week 9 TNF prop bets.

Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Interceptions (-102)

It almost feels sacrilegious to wager on Rodgers to throw a pick, as he still has the lowest career interception rate in NFL history.

But the 40-year-old is a shell of his former self and is on pace to set a new career-high in interceptions. He already has seven INTs this season, including six in his last four games.

Plus, Houston’s defense has made a living turning over opposing offenses. The Texans are tied for eighth in turnover margin (plus-4) and are tied for seventh in interceptions (seven), led by Calen Bullock’s three.

• Moneyline: Texans (+114). The Texans are short-handed and have a tough matchup going north on a short week, but we’ll still back them against the hapless Jets.
• Spread: Texans +2.5 (-115). Houston is 6-2 this season while New York is 2-6 and hasn’t won since Week 3. Both Jets’ wins have come against two of the worst teams in the NFL (New England and Tennessee), while the Texans are one of the best.
• Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-115). This is a low bar to clear, especially for two potent offenses with star quarterbacks.
• Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-145). Mixon has been having a resurgent season and should easily find paydirt against New York’s struggling run defense.
• Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Interceptions (-102). Rodgers has been uncharacteristically inaccurate lately and could have another turnover if the Jets fall behind against the Texans’ ball-hawking secondary.