Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins Week 1: Promos, Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Dolphins moneyline is our pick for this market. However, this is a lofty price (-166) for a straight bet, making the spread a more viable wager.

We recommend waiting to live bet on this game if you want a better moneyline price. The 3-point spread implies this game will be tight, and there should be times when you can get Miami at plus odds.

The Jaguars will have a solid season, but the Dolphins are a terrible matchup in Week 1. Miami isn’t elite on defense, but its explosive offense forces opponents into mistakes.

Lawrence has displayed frequent turnover issues in his career. If the Dolphins can force him to push the ball downfield, it won’t end well for Pederson’s team.

Miami returns the best-scoring offense in the NFL, which should be a problem for Jacksonville’s middling defense. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should have big games with Tagovailoa throwing them the ball, which should lead to a Dolphins victory.

Miami is a 3-point home favorite, and we believe it will cover the spread. If this line spikes to 3.5 or 4, we’ll be more inclined to look at Jacksonville.

If the spread slides in favor of the Jaguars and moves to 2.5, Dolphins -2.5 becomes much more appealing. Lawrence & Co. were cruising through the regular season in 2023 until injuries and poor decision-making down the stretch cost them a division title.

In 2022, Lawrence threw 25 touchdowns with eight interceptions and was considered the next great quarterback in the league. However, he took a step back in 2023 with 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He was playing through pain, but his decision-making was inexcusable in the latter portion of the season.

Lawrence’s receivers are better this year, pending Brian Thomas Jr.’s ability to deliver as a rookie. Yet, Miami’s offensive chemistry should be better in Week 1 as most of the offense is back and ready to continue setting scoring records.

The Jaguars and Dolphins have one of the highest totals of Week 1 at 49. While this total is lofty, we’re still taking the Over because of how explosive the Dolphins have been with Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniels.

If this goes any higher, we recommend staying away. Miami was just 9-9 to the Over last season, but it always gets inflated totals. The Dolphins’ offense returns Tagovailoa, Hill, Waddle, Braxton Berrios, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.

Jacksonville will have difficulty countering the speed throughout this unit, leading to explosive plays for Miami. Hill is questionable for Week 1 with a thumb injury, but his status is promising.

The speedy receiver caught 119 passes for 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. He led the league in yards and touchdowns while ranking second in receptions.

The Jaguars should also have success against the Dolphins on offense. It might not be enough to be competitive on the scoreboard, but Miami has defensive flaws after finishing in the bottom third of the NFL in points allowed per game last year.

Trevor Lawrence Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Lawrence went over 251 passing yards in six of his final seven games of the season. If he doesn’t get close to 251 passing yards, this likely won’t be a very competitive matchup.

It will take the quarterback time to adjust to his new receivers, Gabe Davis and Thomas Jr., but both players can create significant yardage and should help Lawrence pick up chunk plays.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Tagovailoa won’t need any time to adjust to his skill players because they’re all back. Hill and Waddle are two of the best big-play receivers in the NFL, and both running backs can quickly turn a screen into a 40-yard gain.

Jaguars vs. Dolphins should be one of the best quarterback duels of the week, resulting in massive stats. Accordingly, look to the Over on relevant prop bets.

• Dolphins Moneyline (-166): We’re taking the Dolphins on the moneyline at -166. Miami’s offense is very experienced and led the league in scoring last season, which should lead to a Week 1 win at home.
• Dolphins -3 (-115): Laying the field goal with Miami is our most viable betting option. It should take some time for Jacksonville to adjust to a new group of receivers. We believe the Jags will score, but not enough to cover the spread.
• Over 49 (-110): The Dolphins are always given high totals, but we’re leaning Over 49. Miami can create explosive plays without much stress and doesn’t have the best defense. Jacksonville will surrender big plays but can create a few as well, leading to points.
• Trevor Lawrence Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-115): Lawrence’s passing prop is an attractive play, as the Jaguars must score to compete with the Dolphins. He had a very high hit rate on this line toward the end of the year, and we believe it’s low considering this game’s shootout potential.
• Tua Tagovailoa Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-115): Tagovailoa is coming off a great season throwing the ball. He also has a terrific connection with Miami’s receiver room, which should show in the opener.

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