Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 29 (Week 8)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Jaguars -126, Steelers +108
- Spread: Jaguars -1.5 (-115), Steelers +1.5 (-105)
- Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-105)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 NFL schedule features a massive Week 8 battle between the Jaguars (5-2) and Steelers (4-2) in a game with potential playoff implications in the crowded AFC.
The Jaguars have found an offensive rhythm behind Trevor Lawrence and their crop of talented receivers. Jacksonville has won four straight games after last week’s 31-24 win over the Saints, which saw Lawrence throw for 204 yards and a touchdown and lead the team with 59 rushing yards.
The defense was also stout against the run and applied a lot of pressure to Derek Carr, who finished with 301 yards but just one touchdown on 55 attempts.
Jacksonville’s front seven has caused havoc the past few weeks, which is terrible news for Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett. The second-year passer helped his team to a Week 8 win over the Rams but has struggled to lead this offense to high scoring totals, as Pittsburgh ranks sixth-worst in points per game (17.2).
In the futures market, both of these teams are dark horses in the AFC. Jacksonville’s Super Bowl odds are +2400 entering this week, ninth-best in the NFL, while Pittsburgh is dealing at +7000 after an uneven start.
Moneyline
Jacksonville enters this week as a slim favorite on the moneyline, and we like the team’s chances to stay hot on Sunday.
The Jaguars struggled to find an identity on offense amid a shaky start to the season, but the team also fought through many injuries upfront. The offensive line is starting to get healthy, and starting left tackle Cam Robinson is also back from a four-game suspension to start the year.
Robinson sets the tone in pass protection and can seal the edge in the run game, and his return has helped the Jaguars run the ball more effectively. Jacksonville ranks 13th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (113.4) behind coach Doug Pederson’s diverse play-calling, and the team has amassed 131.3 yards per game on the ground since Robinson’s return.
If the Jaguars don’t turn the ball over, they should be able to control this game. The Steelers’ defense is tied for fifth in total takeaways (12) but has also allowed the third-most total yardage per game (383.5) entering this week’s matchup.
The Steelers are 3-0 this season when forcing multiple turnovers and 1-2 when they don’t. The Jaguars are too talented of a team to make those types of game-deciding mistakes.
Point Spread
The Jaguars are getting close to 70% of the money in the spread market, so this line could be moving. We love the favorites at this price and suggest pouncing on them before this line shifts any closer to the key number of three.
Even if it does, we recommend playing Jacksonville up to -4 because of the team’s offensive advantage in this game. It will be surprising to see Pickett keep scoring pace with Lawrence, which he must do for Pittsburgh to cover.
Put simply, Pickett has been bad this season. He’s thrown five touchdowns and four interceptions in his six starts this season, and his QBR (35.5) ranks 30th among 32 qualified passers. It doesn’t help that offensive coordinator Matt Canada has been very vanilla with the play calling, which hasn’t allowed Pickett to showcase his arm.
While Pickett isn’t lighting it up statistically, nor have any of Pittsburgh’s running backs. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have combined to rush for just 76 yards per game through six weeks, and the team is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.
If the Steelers can get stops on defense, they can afford to run a clock-control offense. Yet scoring will be critical versus the Jaguars, and the offense isn’t built to put up points in a big way.
Over/Under
These two teams couldn’t be more different in the Over/Under standings: Pittsburgh has gone Under in five of six games, while Jacksonville has gone Over four times in seven games this season.
With the Steelers’ lackluster scoring offense, the Under may seem like a viable betting option, but we’re going against this theory.
The Steelers are coming off a 24-point performance against the Rams, and Jacksonville’s games have hit 50-plus points each of the past two weeks. We expect the Jaguars offense to set the tone in this game, which will take Pittsburgh off schedule and cause Pickett to throw on early downs.
If Pittsburgh falls behind in this contest, Pickett’s arm is going to be the way the team stays in the game. He hasn’t been efficient, but neither has Jacksonville’s passing defense, which ranks second-worst in yards per game (273.9).
Pickett should be able to drive the field if he finds a groove on Sunday, and when combined with the Jaguars’ explosive offense, we have confidence this game will exceed this modest total.
Player Prop
The best prop bet for this game is Lawrence Over 17.5 rushing yards (-114).
Lawrence was questionable for last week’s game against the Saints with a knee injury, and it wasn’t known if he would play right up to kickoff. His knee didn’t give him any trouble, as the former No. 1 pick carried the ball eight times for 59 yards against New Orleans.
He’s questionable again this week, too, but if he suits up, he’s well-suited to run roughshod on a Steelers defense allowing just under 20 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs.
Teams often try to play man coverage against Jacksonville, so they turn their back on the quarterback. If rushing lanes open up, Lawrence isn’t afraid to scramble – he’s rushed for at least 20 yards in five of seven starts in 2023, and this is without consistently designed run plays.
The Steelers’ pass rush is elite, so Lawrence will surely find himself scrambling at times in this one. Based on his past results, he can hit this total on a single carry, and he’s a strong bet to cross this mark on Sunday.
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images
