Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: New York Jets at New York Giants
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 29 (Week 8)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Jets -155, Giants +130
- Spread: Jets -3 (+100), Giants +3 (-120)
- Total: Over/Under 36.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The battle for the Big Apple headlines Week 8 of the 2023 NFL schedule as the New York Giants clash with the New York Jets.
The Jets have defied the odds since Aaron Rodgers’ injury and gotten off to a 3-3 start with several impressive wins, and they’re still alive for the playoffs (+8000 Super Bowl odds). The Giants don’t have the same futures outlook (+20000) but have performed better in recent weeks, setting the stage for a hard-fought matchup with a crosstown rival.
Moneyline
Even though the Jets are the “road” team, their moneyline is a strong play this weekend.
When talking about the Jets, it’s important to keep tabs on reality. They’ve won two games in a row and just beat the Philadelphia Eagles, which, as impressive as a result as it was, is unlikely to happen again.
That said, the Jets have found a way to protect Zach Wilson from his own mistakes and help him run a productive offense. They’ve averaged 23.7 points over their last three outings, which includes games against the strong Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs defenses, while Wilson’s QBR has improved from 25.2 during the first three weeks to 48.8 over his last three games.
The Jets’ defense also seems to be playing with a renewed spirit recently. Despite ranking 13th on the year in points allowed (19.8 per game), they’ve risen to second in takeaways per game (2.2) after forcing four Eagles turnovers in their last game.
While cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are both questionable for this matchup, they each passed concussion protocol on Friday and should be good to go on Sunday. Even if one or both can’t go, the Jets forced Jalen Hurts into three interceptions and beat the Eagles without either of them.
The Jets also have the added boost of coming off a bye week, which means they should be more rested and well-studied than their opponent.
Now it’s time to address the elephant in the room: the Giants look better with Tyrod Taylor in the lineup than they did with $160 million man Daniel Jones, who has missed each of the team’s last two games and won’t be on the field Sunday, either.
Aside from the clock management gaffe at the end of the second quarter against the Bills, the 34-year-old has been fairly effective under center for a team with mostly inferior talent. Taylor went 18-for-29 for 279 yards and two touchdowns against the Washington Commanders last week and is yet to throw a pick after appearing in six games (two starts).
Taylor, more than anything, has added verticality to the Giants’ offense, as his average depth of target (8.0) is nearly two yards per attempt more than Jones’ (6.3). That’s also freed up room for Saquon Barkley, who has 216 total yards and a touchdown in Taylor’s two starts.
The Giants’ defense did an excellent job swarming to the ball against the Commanders, forcing six sacks and an interception, but it’s hard to judge them off that performance since Washington might have the worst offensive line in the league.
The G-Men also rank 23rd in scoring defense (24.9 PPG) for the year. We expect the Jets to find enough wiggle room to get by them and ultimately win.
Point Spread
Even though the Jets are well-positioned to win this matchup, we also view this game as a pick’em. It’s tough to lay the points here, especially on a three-point line, which makes the Giants’ spread a viable play and our favorite target in the major markets.
This might be threading the needle, but neither team deserves to be favored by a full field goal. Taylor is also a better quarterback than Wilson and is working against a secondary that could be hindered by injury.
Betting underdogs in low-total games (more on that in a moment) has been quite profitable recently. Since 2018, underdogs in games with Over/Unders below 42 are 160-102-5 against the spread (61.1%). That number jumps to 23-8-1 ATS (74.2%) in 2023 alone.
The Giants are 23rd and the Jets are 28th in big plays generated thus far. This is going to be a low-scoring game in which both teams fail to break away from one another, which makes it worth grabbing the points on the underdog Giants.
Over/Under
We alluded to it already, but we’re looking at the Under despite the 36.5-point line being among the lowest of the week.
Iowa and Minnesota just went under on a line of 30.5, which was the lowest tracked total in college football history. We’re not saying it’s a lock, but there’s proof that it’s possible.
The Jets are 3-3 on the Over/Under, while the Giants are a whopping 6-1 to the Under. We already sang Talyor’s praises, but we should note that the offense has scored a total of 23 points with him taking snaps the last two weeks.
Both teams will want to pound the rock but also stop their opponents’ running game. This feels like an instance in which both teams gain less than 300 yards of total offense and the final score finishes in the neighborhood of 17-16.
Player Prop
A viable player prop from the Jets-Giants matchup is Barkley Over 69.5 rushing yards (-115). He’s rushed for 77 and 93 yards in each of the last two weeks, respectively, and carried the rock 22.5 times per game since returning from injury.
The Jets’ defense is impressive, but stopping the run is not its strong suit. New York ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (135.2) and will have trouble stacking the box with the threat of Taylor pushing the ball over the top.
The Giants need a strong outing from Barkley if they are going to cover. Watch for him to get another 20-plus carries and to break at least one huge gain that carries him over his total.
Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images
