Jets vs. 49ers Week 1: MNF Promos, Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Jets will be better this year if Rodgers stays healthy, but we still think the 49ers will pick up the win on Monday night.

San Francisco still has Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and all-world running back Christian McCaffrey, all of whom should pick up where they left off last year. The Niners also still have a ton of talent on defense and are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL.

As for New York, we’re going to wait a week before putting any trust in Rodgers and his injured Achilles, as he essentially hasn’t played in two years and will likely have some rust to shake off. The Jets don’t have a dependable receiver outside of Garrett Wilson, and their defense will be without trade acquisition Haason Reddick, who is holding out for a new contract.

At the end of the day, there’s simply too much uncertainty to back New York to win outright.

While the Jets are in a tough spot against the reigning NFC champions on the road in Week 1, we still like them to cover the spread.

The past 24 Super Bowl winners are 4-20 against the spread in Week 1, and professional gambler Billy Walters wrote in his book Gambler that the Super Bowl loser underperforms the spread by 0.8 points in Week 1 the following season.

The Super Bowl loser is just 4-20 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

In Billy Walters’ book, he has the SB loser as being -0.8 to the point spread in the first game of the following season and -0.4 point spread for the next 3 games as well. We’ll see if the 49ers can overcome this

— Raheem Palmer (@iamrahstradamus) August 26, 2024

While Rodgers is coming off the aforementioned leg injury, he’s still a future Hall of Famer and a preseason favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. New York has a talented roster and still managed to pull off some upsets last year with Wilson under center, so Rodgers could be the missing piece of the puzzle if he stays healthy.

It will be tough for the Jets to beat San Francisco on the road (the 49ers were 7-3 at home last year, including the playoffs), but Rodgers should keep this a one-possession game against a team that could still be dealing with a Super Bowl hangover.

San Francisco is coming off a fantastic offensive season where it led the league in offensive grade (92.4) and EPA per play (0.16) per Pro Football Focus, but we’re still taking the Under here.

New York had one of the league’s best pass defenses last year, yielding just 5.0 net passing yards per attempt (fourth in NFL). The defense will also be less taxed with Rodgers doing a better job taking care of the football and sustaining drives compared to Wilson.

The 49ers failed to clear this over in eight games last year (with two pushes), while the Jets failed to clear it in 13 games.

New York’s offense will likely need some time to find its groove under Rodgers, while San Francisco could struggle early. Both defenses are among the best in the league, so take the Under here.

• Brandon Aiyuk Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-121)

Aiyuk is one of the most talented receivers in football, which is why the 49ers rewarded him with a four-year, $120 million contract extension. The only problem is that he needed to do a “hold-in” to get that contract, which resulted in him missing all of training camp and the preseason.

While San Francisco will care more about what Aiyuk does in January than what he does in September, that hold-in and lack of practice time will limit his ability to make an impact in Week 1. Fade him and take the Under on this prop bet.

• Breece Hall Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-127)

Hall cleared this Over in eight games last year with a cavalcade of quarterbacks, and we’re expecting him to clear this Over with Rodgers. He had multiple targets in all 17 games last year and at least three targets in 12 games, so he should be heavily involved in the passing game, especially if Rodgers focuses on short passes to get himself back in rhythm.

Check out more of our best MNF prop bets here.

• Moneyline: 49ers (-210). The 49ers’ loaded roster will be too much for the Jets at home.
• Spread: Jets +4 (-110). New York has the talent to keep this game close. Rodgers will make up for lost time, even if he can’t get the Jets a win.
• Over/Under: Under 43.5 (-110). Both teams have strong defenses and run-heavy offenses that are built for long drives. Don’t expect a lot of quick scores in this one.
• Prop 1: Brandon Aiyuk Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-121). After missing the preseason with his contract situation, Aiyuk may not get too much attention from Purdy in Week 1.
• Prop 2: Breece Hall Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-127). Hall is a great pass-catching back and should be busy in Week 1 as Rodgers tries to get his bearings.

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