Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Week 8: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

This is typically the space where we break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses using metrics and statistics. We promise we’ll get to that further down.

But if you’re really worried about which team will win this game, consider the Chiefs have beaten far superior opposition in far worse situations, including their road win over the Niners last week without No. 1 receiver Rashee Rice and top running back Isiah Pacheco.

Simply put, Kansas City has Mahomes leading the offense and Steve Spagnuolo dialing up defenses. It also hasn’t lost at Allegiant Stadium since the stadium opened in 2020. That’s enough for us to back the Chiefs to win, even though the odds only make this wager compelling as a parlay leg.

Asking any team to win by double digits on the road in a divisional game is a tall order, but the Chiefs are certainly capable of doing so.

Despite its 6-0 record, Kansas City is just 1-4-1 against a 9.5-point spread, with its lone double-digit cover coming against the New Orleans Saints at home on Monday Night Football in Week 5. Still, the Chiefs have won three straight in Vegas by at least 14 points, including their 31-17 win over the Raiders last season.

Las Vegas has dropped three straight, with two of those losses coming by 16-plus points. It’s also 1-2 at Allegiant Stadium with a minus-29 point differential and a loss to the lowly Carolina Panthers.

The Raiders’ offense is extremely limited with Adams playing for the Jets, O’Connell out for at least four weeks and a rushing attack that ranks 30th in the NFL (85.6 yards per game). Plus, Kansas City’s defense has been exceptional against the run, ranking fourth in yards allowed per game (90.5).

The Chiefs’ offense will need to step up to cover 9.5 points, especially since Mahomes & Co. are 10th in yards per game (350.3) and 13th in points per game (24.3). But with the way Kansas City’s defense is playing, Las Vegas might not score on Sunday.

We’ll back the Chiefs to cover -9.5, even on the road against a division rival.

Only five teams are scoring fewer points per game than the Raiders’ average of 17.7 per game, and Adams is still their fourth-leading receiver even though he only suited up for three games before getting traded.

KC isn’t putting up a huge number of points per game either, largely because Mahomes has been quite pedestrian. He has more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six) and is averaging a career-low 231.5 passing yards per game.

The Chiefs will likely exploit Las Vegas’ bottom-third run defense (136.7 yards against per game, 23rd in the NFL) and lean on Kareem Hunt, especially once they have a lead.

But again, the Raiders may not score, as they have only 12 touchdowns this season. Minshew is tied with Mahomes for the league’s most interceptions (eight), so we should see some fruitless drives that end in turnovers.

We’ll back the Under.

Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-145)

Hunt is enjoying a renaissance in his second tour with the Chiefs, averaging 83 rushing yards per game with three touchdowns, including two in last week’s win over San Francisco.

After earning 49 carries over the last two weeks combined, Hunt is the clear No. 1 option in Kansas City’s backfield. He should be heavily involved again this week given the Raiders’ poor run defense and is a good bet to find the end zone for the third straight week.

Daniel Carlson Over 5.5 Kicking Points (-115)

Las Vegas may not find pay dirt Sunday and may not score at all, but Carlson is averaging 6.8 points per game and will probably manage to at least notch a couple of field goals and hit the Over on this prop.

Brock Bowers is the Raiders’ lone goal-line threat, and the Chiefs are ninth in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (47.4). If Las Vegas does get into Kansas City territory, its drives will likely stall out in the red zone, giving Carlson opportunities to put points on the board.

• Moneyline: Chiefs (-425). The Chiefs haven’t lost yet this year, and we don’t expect them to this week against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
• Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-110). The Chiefs have won three straight games in Vegas by 10-plus points and should do so again, especially with Hopkins giving the offense a much-needed boost.
• Over/Under: Under 41.5 (-112). The Raiders’ offense is awful and the Chiefs’ defense is great. KC could score 30-plus points and the Under might still hit.
• Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-145). The redemption tour continues for Hunt, who has three touchdowns in as many games this season and is a great bet to score again.
• Daniel Carlson Over 5.5 Kicking Points (-115). There’s a chance the Raiders won’t score at all Sunday. But with Carlson averaging almost seven points per game, he should drill a couple of field goals.