Early 2024 brought two major rule changes to the National Football League. The first was banning the controversial hip-drop tackle to reduce player injuries.
The other was far more significant, as owners voted by a 29-3 margin to change the kickoff rules for a one-year trial period.
This isn’t surprising. For years, many NFL fans and players called for the league to change its kickoff rules, labeling it one of the most dangerous plays.
Under the old format, players on the kicking team were allowed to start running downfield as soon as the ball was kicked. By the time the kick returner caught the ball, tacklers were coming at him full speed, resulting in some ugly collisions.
Kick returners avoided these hits by either “fair catching” the ball (making the play dead) or not catching it at all, resulting in 2023 having the lowest kickoff return rate in NFL history (21.8%).
Under the new “hybrid” rules, based on the XFL format, the kicking team can not move after the ball until it is caught or hits the ground. This gives the return team more time to catch and advance the ball downfield.
The hybrid kickoff rule change proposal has been approved by @NFL clubs for the 2024 season. 👇 pic.twitter.com/DggRekG3mo
— NFL Football Operations (@NFLFootballOps) March 26, 2024
The purpose of the new rule is twofold. One is to reduce player injuries, and the other is to bolster kick returns. Not only would more kick returns make the game more exciting, but they would also improve the field position of the return team, resulting in more points.
With that in mind, let’s look at the new kickoff rule and how it could affect scoring.
What is the New Kickoff Rule?
The NFL’s new kickoff rule, which will go into effect for the 2024 season, will be familiar to XFL fans. The XFL has used a similar kickoff format since 2020.
You can find the rules here, but here are the basics:
- The ball is kicked from the kicking team’s 35-yard line
- Rather than lining up with the kicker, the other 10 members of the kicking team line up on the receiving team’s 40-yard line with five players on each side of the ball
- At least nine members of the receiving team must line up between their 30 and 35-yard line
- One or two players can stay back to catch the kick
- Play does not begin until the ball is caught or hits the ground
- If the ball lands between the end zone and the 20-yard line, it must be returned
- If the ball bounces into the end zone, it must either be returned or downed in the end zone for a touchback, which puts the ball at the 20-yard line
- If the kick reaches the end zone in the air, it must either be returned or downed there for a touchback, which puts the ball at the 30-yard line
- If the kick fails to reach the 20-yard line or goes out of bounds, the return team gets the ball at the 40-yard line
- Fair catches are not allowed
- Onside kicks are only allowed in the fourth quarter and must be declared by the kicking team
- Penalties added to a kickoff will move the location of the ball but not affect player alignment
By positioning the offense and defense only a few yards apart and eliminating running starts, the new rules make kickoffs more like traditional scrimmage plays. The expectation is that injuries will be reduced, incentivize kick returns and improve field position for the return team.
How Could New Kickoff Rule Impact Betting?
The biggest impact this rule change could have on betting is on totals. This rule will make kick returns more common, leading to better field position and more return touchdowns.
Better field position makes scoring easier for the returning team because more returns will reduce the amount of ground they need to cover to score a touchdown or field goal.
It should also result in more possessions, as teams will need less time to score. More possessions means more chances for points.
For reference, 97% of XFL kickoffs were returned in 2023—4.4 times the NFL rate of 21.8%.
The 2023 NFL season saw only four kickoffs returned for a touchdown—the fewest in 30 years.
Under the new rules, both numbers should increase in 2024, resulting in higher-scoring games. It’s currently unclear how much scoring will increase, as the impact won’t be known until teams start playing games with the new rule.
Scoring decreased by six points per game from 2020 to 2023, so scoring could return closer to 2020 levels (or perhaps even higher) in 2024.
The new kickoff rules could also impact prop bets, specifically anytime touchdown lines.
The new rules make kick return touchdowns more likely, so wagers on kick returners to score a touchdown will become more viable. The odds and payouts would be lower, but they should hit more frequently.
Players will need time to adjust. It could be wise to wait until there are a few weeks of data and trends to analyze before betting Over/Unders and kickoff props.
First Evidence of NFL Kickoff Rule Impact
The NFL adopted a new format for kickoffs to encourage more kickoff returns and make the play more exciting. The new kickoff alignment made its regular-season debut in the Kansas City Chiefs’ 27-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener Sept. 5.
The NFL is rooting for more action on kickoffs, but as always, bettors will be looking for any effect the new rule will have. Here are some ways the new kickoff structure could affect betting on the NFL.
How Do NFL Kickoffs Work Now?
As they have since 2010, an NFL kickoff will be teed up at the 35-yard line, and that is the only element that remained the same from 2023 to 2024. The kicker now lines the ball up with his kickoff team at the opposing team’s 40-yard line and the return team stationed five yards apart.
If the ball goes through the end zone, it is a touchback, but unlike in 2023, the receiving team will get the ball at the 30-yard line. If the ball lands between the goal line and the 20, now known as the “landing zone,” the return team must field the ball and run it back.
The new rules are designed to make the kickoff play safer while also promoting more returns.
Kickoff Props in Play
Online sportsbooks have offered prop bets for whether the opening kickoff will be a touchback or not, but the odds have skewed heavily toward the game opening at the 25-yard line after the ball is inevitably booted into the end zone. In addition, with the growth of micro-betting, it would be hard to wager against the subsequent kickoff after a score being returned.
But the odds are no longer in favor of that happening. Though touchbacks are still the likely outcome on most kickoffs, since they are still kicked off from the 35, there is a strategic element to kicking the ball into the landing zone. Kicking teams may try to pin returning teams deep or hope for a penalty, since those traditionally are prevalent on special-teams plays.
Plus, the 30 is pretty good field position for an opponent to start its opening drive, and gaining 10 yards on a touchback on a kickoff over the course of the past eight years, far exceeds the rate of inflation. Opponents won’t want to just give a team five yards, especially since kickoff teams have less ground to cover while starting at the 40.
So wagering on a touchback on the opening kickoff is now a plus-money bet, depending on the kicker and where the game is being played – we’re looking at you, Denver.
Plus, there are other game props to consider. A bettor can now get odds on the longest kickoff return or whether there will be a kickoff returned for a touchdown, which were extraordinarily unlikely outcomes with the old rules.
Drop the Player Prop Totals
If the first game is any indication, there may be a reduction in passing and receiving yards due to the new kickoff rules. If most drives start at the 30 after a touchback then that’s five fewer yards for a team to get before scoring.
Plus, if kickoff returns will become normalized, then there could be even better starting field position than the 30. Kick returners have always been the fastest players on the team, and if they get more chances to show off their speed and elusiveness that will make for even fewer yards for an offensive team to get.
Return yards are typically ignored when sportsbooks put together prop betting numbers for receivers/running backs, since receiving yards + rushing yards is usually the play. Sportsbooks may eventually create player props for return yards, but they don’t have those yet because the NFL doesn’t typically include return yards in box scores.
Less Field to Travel = More Points
Scoring may go up if teams have five fewer yards to gain after a touchback. After all, it’s easier to go 70 yards for a score than it was to go 75.
There is also a prop element to that as well, where bettors may want to consider anytime touchdowns or the Over on a quarterback to surpass his passing-touchdown prop. An increase in scoring would be beneficial to the NFL since points were down a season ago.
Plus, with how good kickers have become, an offensive team needs only about 30 yards to get into a kicker’s field goal range after a touchback.
Sportsbooks will eventually adjust, and player props may ultimately suffer, but the Over for team props like the first-half or game total could become a lucrative betting market while the books figure out how the rules affect the games.
For instance, if a team is listed as Over/Under 21.5 points, but it has a good offense and a dynamite kicker, then a bet on 22-plus points seems likely, especially with the NFL’s offensive-friendly rules.
Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
