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This year’s NFL Black Friday game pits arguably the best team in the NFL against one of the worst.
After winning back-to-back Super Bowls, the Kansas City Chiefs are aiming for an unprecedented third straight Lombardi Trophy. They’re 10-1 this year – tied with the Detroit Lions for the NFL’s top record – and have won 16 of their last 17 games dating back to last year.
The Las Vegas Raiders, on the other hand, are going in the opposite direction. They’re tied for the league’s worst record at 2-9 and have lost seven straight games, including three straight by double digits.
Kansas City has the second-shortest Super Bowl odds at Caesars Sportsbook (+480) and is heavily favored a home against Las Vegas. Let’s take a closer look at this lopsided matchup at our favorite NFL betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Friday, Nov. 29, 2024 (Week 13)
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- Watch: Prime Video
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Raiders +500, Chiefs -700
- Spread: Raiders +12 (-110), Chiefs -12 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 42.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Moneyline
Don’t overthink it. The Chiefs’ -800 moneyline odds mean Vegas doesn’t expect this game to be close, and we agree.
Kansas City is 5-0 at home this year, while the Raiders are 1-5 on the road and have lost four straight away games. Patrick Mahomes has also dominated Las Vegas throughout his career, going 11-2 against his AFC West rivals.
We have no doubt the Chiefs will win on Friday, though we’d only take this wager if it was part of a parlay.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Spread
This is the biggest spread for the Chiefs this year, even bigger than their 11-point spread against the woeful Carolina Panthers last week.
The Raiders’ quarterback situation is dire following Gardner Minshew’s season-ending collarbone injury last week. Backup QB Aidan O’Connell is set to replace him and is 0-2 as a starter this year.
The Raiders have lost their last three games by double digits and will likely extend that streak to four this week.
Back Kansas City to win by at least two touchdowns and cover at home.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Over/Under
Even before losing Minshew, the Raiders’ offense was already among the worst in the league, ranking 26th in scoring and 28th in yardage.
Las Vegas should struggle to put up points against the Chiefs’ elite defense. Kansas City ranks ninth in points allowed and fourth in yards allowed.
The Chiefs will need to score a lot to hit the Over, and we’re not confident in that happening. Their offense has been rather pedestrian over the last two seasons, ranking 15th in scoring last year and 14th in yardage this year.
We can’t see the Raiders scoring enough to hit the Over, so take the Under in this division rivalry game.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Props
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-154)
After a slow start to the season, Mahomes has looked more like himself over the last month. In his last five games, he’s completed 71.6% of his passes with a 12:3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 256.8 passing yards per game.
Mahomes has thrown multiple passing TDs in four of those five games, including Week 8 against the Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed 20 passing touchdowns in 11 games this year (26th in NFL), so back the two-time MVP to stay hot at home and hit the Over on this prop.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)
If Mahomes throws multiple TDs, there’s a good chance one of them goes to Kelce, who’s scored twice in his last five games.
One of those scores came against the Raiders in Week 8, when he caught 10 of 12 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Kelce has 12 career touchdowns against Las Vegas — his most against any team — so look for him to find the end zone again this week.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-700). The Chiefs aren’t losing at home to a backup quarterback and one of the worst teams in the league.
- Spread: Chiefs -12 (-110). Yes, the Chiefs sometimes struggle to cover big spreads, but they’re playing at home and the Raiders’ quarterback situation stinks.
- Over/Under: Under 42.5 (-110). The Chiefs offense will score, but we can’t see the Raiders holding up their end of the bargain here.
- Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-154): Mahomes has been on fire since late October and should have no problem shredding the Raiders’ defense for a couple of touchdowns.
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110): Kelce has owned Las Vegas throughout his career and should benefit from a big performance by Mahomes.
