The Los Angeles Chargers will kick off the Jim Harbaugh era on Sunday when they host the Las Vegas Raiders for an AFC West rivalry game.
Harbaugh, who won a national championship at the University of Michigan last year, has the highest NFL winning percentage (.695) among all active coaches. Accordingly, many believe the Chargers are a true dark horse contender with +4500 Super Bowl futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pundits and oddsmakers alike don’t have as much optimism for the Raiders in the 2024-25 NFL season. They’re tied for the seventh-longest Super Bowl odds (+10000) and have a 79.4% implied chance of missing the playoffs despite finishing their 2023 campaign with seven wins in their last 13 games.
With NFL betting sites rocking and rolling after a lengthy offseason, here are our best betting picks for this matchup.
Game Details
- Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 8 (Week 1)
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
- Watch: CBS
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Raiders +130, Chargers -155
- Spread: Raiders +3 (-110), Chargers -3 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-112/-108)
Note: Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Raiders vs. Chargers Moneyline
The Chargers’ defense has been one of the greatest sources of frustration in the entire NFL over the past few seasons. Their roster was one of the best in the league on paper last year, but their production came up woefully short of expectations.
Los Angeles ranked 23rd in points allowed per game (23.4) and 26th in yards allowed per play (5.5). That, combined with several offensive injuries (including one to starting quarterback Justin Herbert), doomed the Chargers to their worst season since 2019.
Harbaugh’s primary goal will be to get the best out of the defense. He also reworked the offensive personnel, moving on from players such as Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler and selecting tackle Joe Alt with the fifth pick in the draft as the team prepares to adopt a greater focus on the run game.
On the other side, Antonio Pierce helped the Raiders recover from a tumultuous start to the year with wins over the Green Bay Packers, New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs over the back half of the season. They also beat Los Angeles 63-21 in Week 15, costing former Chargers coach Brandon Staley his job.
Vegas has a menacing defensive front but will be put to the test in the secondary. Its ability to keep up with high-scoring offenses is also in question now that Gardner Minshew is taking over under center and Josh Jacobs has been replaced with Zamir White.
We believe the most playable moneyline bet in this matchup is Chargers (-155). Harbaugh’s track record speaks for itself, and the Bolts are more talented than the Raiders at nearly every position.
Raiders vs. Chargers Spread
This three-point spread offers a teachable moment.
Spread betting often comes down to understanding the critical numbers of three, six, and seven, since those are the most common scoring denominations in NFL games. A 2.5-point spread would give the advantage to Los Angeles since it would cover with a field goal win. Meanwhile, a 3.5-point line would favor Las Vegas for the same reason, except in a loss.
Because the line is an even three points, there’s somewhat of a security blanket for both teams.
The Raiders were the sixth-best team in the NFL against the spread in 2023, going 10-6-1 (62.5%). The Chargers were just 6-11 (35.3%), fourth-worst in the league.
We mentioned earlier that we believe Los Angeles will win on the moneyline, and it’s hard to make a case for Las Vegas to lose by only one or two points.
Harbaugh has a talented team and gets to start the new chapter of his NFL coaching career against a flawed opponent. Pierce got his team to play hard last year after Josh McDaniels was fired but is still inexperienced as a head coach, and he’s facing a proven winner.
Accordingly, the Chargers are appealing at -3.
Raiders vs. Chargers Total
The Over/Under market is tough to pick.
Harbaugh’s arrival implies an increased defensive focus. The San Francisco 49ers ranked top-10 in fewest points allowed in all four of his seasons at the helm, while his offense was top-12 in scoring in three of those years.
On the flip side, the Raiders were seventh in points allowed per game and only 23rd in scoring offense last year, putting the Under in pole position.
That said, there’s no guarantee that the Chargers will immediately mesh with Harbaugh’s defensive principles. Los Angeles also has a new-look offense that is integrating several newcomers, including Alt, Ladd McConkey, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
Las Vegas scored at least 20 points in its final four games of 2023, including its aforementioned 63-point explosion.
While the threat of the Over looms large, we expect this game to be dominated by defense and running the football, making the Under the most inviting option.
Raiders vs. Chargers Props
- Gus Edwards Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Harbaugh wants to run the ball, plain and simple. His Wolverines were 17th in college football in rushing play percentage (59.6%) last year, and his 49ers were known for their potent ground game.
Edwards and Dobbins should both be prepared for lots of touches, especially following the departures of Allen, Ekeler and Mike Williams. Watch for Harbaugh to put his new RBs to work and pound the rock against Las Vegas, especially with Justin Herbert potentially hampered by a foot injury.
- Gardner Minshew Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Minshew averaged 220.3 passing yards per game with the Indianapolis Colts last year despite coming off the bench in four games. He also did not have a receiver as talented as Davante Adams or a tight end as dependable as rookie Brock Bowers should be.
The Chargers’ defense could easily force Minshew into a poor showing, but yards aren’t always a direct reflection of a bad game. The Raiders threw the ball on a greater percentage of plays than the Colts did last year, which means Minshew should be in for an even bigger workload this season.
Take the Over on this prop bet.
Raiders vs. Chargers Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Chargers -155. The Chargers have a higher ceiling because of their superior talent. They also have an advantage at quarterback and a proven winner in Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.
- Spread: Chargers -3 (-110). The Raiders were one of the best teams at covering the spread last year, while the Chargers were one of the worst. That said, it’s tough to make the case that Los Angeles will win but only by one or two points at home.
- Over/Under: Under 40.5 (-108). Harbaugh is a defensive mastermind with a track record of success. The Raiders ranked seventh in points allowed per game last year and got up for tough games under Antonio Pierce.
- Prop 1: Gus Edwards Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115). Harbaugh is a run-oriented coach who ditched wide receivers for running backs and linemen during the offseason. Las Vegas also ranked 20th in rushing yards allowed per game last year.
- Prop 2: Gardner Minshew Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115). Minshew threw for more than 220 passing yards per game last year in a more run-centric offense. He’ll also get to work with outstanding pass-catchers Davante Adams and Brock Bowers.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
