Do you have a crystal ball?
For those looking ahead to next year, online sportsbooks like BetMGM allow bettors to pick the exact two participants for Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 11, 2024, in Las Vegas.
The “Super Bowl Exact Outcome” market gives gamblers the opportunity to try their luck at predicting the matchup and result in the Big Game. One of the outcomes most favored by bettors might be surprising.
BetMGM reported that 4.5% of the handle for Super Bowl exact outcome wagers is for the Detroit Lions to beat the Cleveland Browns. This checked in at the second-highest handle in the betting market before the 2023 season kicks off in September.
The odds opened very long at +40000, which means a winning $100 bet would pay out $40,000.
The odds will change as games are played and more money is bet, however.
How Does the Super Bowl Exact Outcome Wager Work?
This market is an example of an NFL futures bet.
Futures wagers allow bettors to pick the result of an event that will conclude sometime down the line. In the NFL, the winner of the Super Bowl is the most popular selection in this category.
For example, a straightforward wager on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl has +600 odds. A $100 wager would pay out a $600 profit if the Chiefs repeat as champions (regardless of opponent).
The Super Bowl exact outcomes wager ramps this up. Prognosticators pick the two teams in the Big Game and the winning side. The likelihood of hitting the wager is low, even if you go with the best team in each conference.
The favored matchup in this market involves a repeat of last season’s Super Bowl.
Kansas City over the Philadelphia Eagles comes with odds of +2500, a far more likely outcome than the Lions over the Browns. Meanwhile, a bet on the reverse of that matchup (Eagles over Chiefs) has odds of +3500. Kansas City defeating the San Francisco 49ers has the second-lowest odds at +3000.
While the Lions-Browns odds are long, they’re far from the longest. For example, for the Arizona Cardinals to beat the Tennessee Titans in the upcoming Super Bowl has +1000000 odds. The Cardinals and Titans are expected to be among the worst teams in the NFL in 2023.
A winning $100 bet on that exact outcome would pay out $1 million.
Lions-Browns Matchup
The Detroit over Cleveland wager has been popular with BetMGM bettors and comes with the aforementioned hefty odds of +40000. As mentioned, a $100 wager would yield $40,000 in profit.
Here’s a snapshot of both teams going into the 2023 NFL schedule.
Detroit Lions
- Coach: Dan Campbell
- Quarterback: Jared Goff
- 2022 record: 9-8 (second in NFC North)
- Offensive ranking: 4th
- Defensive ranking: 32nd
Cleveland Browns
- Coach: Kevin Stefanski
- Quarterback: Deshaun Watson
- 2022 record: 7-10 (fourth in AFC North)
- Offensive ranking: 14th
- Defensive ranking: 14th
The Lions showed promise in 2022 with the team’s first winning season since 2017. Dan Campbell seems to have found something in Motown, leading his squad to contention after four straight last-place finishes.
While Detroit showed some offensive prowess last year by ranking fifth in points per game, the defense gave most of those points back by allowing the fifth-most in the NFL. If some of their early-round defensive picks from the 2023 NFL Draft pan out, the Lions could be headed for an even bigger season.
Meanwhile, the Browns continued the franchise’s mediocrity in 2022 and have made the playoffs only once in the last 20 seasons. The team finished middle of the pack in total yardage for both offense and defense.
Unlike last year, Cleveland expects quarterback Deshaun Watson to be available for the entire season.
Could either of these teams even make the Super Bowl? It’s obviously possible, as the Lions have +850 odds to win the NFC (fourth-best) and the Browns have +2000 odds to win the AFC (ninth-best).
