Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 5 (Week 10)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET / 4:05 p.m. PT
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Lions -155, Chargers +130
- Spread: Lions -3 (-108), Chargers +3 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Detroit Lions (6-2) will travel to Los Angeles to battle the Chargers (4-4) in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL schedule. The Lions and Chargers are in different spots as we cross the season’s halfway point.
Detroit is a heavy favorite to win the NFC North and looks like a legitimate playoff threat. Los Angeles is doing everything possible to stay afloat in the AFC West, a division owned by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Both teams need a win, but the desperation scale is leaning heavily toward the Chargers. However, this doesn’t mean they can outplay one of the hottest teams in the NFC. Dan Campbell has Detroit firing on all cylinders, and Los Angeles will have trouble defending their explosive weapons.
The Lions are one of the favorites to make a run in the playoffs, as their Super Bowl odds are the seventh-shortest at 11/1, while the Chargers’ price in the futures market is 35/1.
Moneyline
The moneyline favors the Lions, and this is our preferred bet. Detroit has a few things going for it in this game, making us lean into its short moneyline price.
The Chargers have the worst passing defense in the NFL, allowing 286 yards per game. Their poor play in the secondary was evident against the Jets in Week 9. New York didn’t find the endzone, but they were successful in the downfield passing game.
Zach Wilson threw for 263 yards, and these big yardage numbers have been the norm for opposing quarterbacks against the Chargers. On Oct. 22, Patrick Mahomes torched Los Angeles for 424 yards and four touchdowns, so Jared Goff has the potential to post some big numbers.
Goff’s average passing prop line has been 253.5 this season, according to Fox Sports. His line on Sunday is 267.5, reflecting the struggling Chargers secondary. If Los Angeles fails to apply pressure, it could be a long afternoon for Brandon Staley’s team.
The other significant advantage Dan Campbell’s team has coming into this game is a Week 9 bye week. The Lions have the luxury of preparing for the Chargers for two weeks and recovering over this span. Los Angeles received the early bye in Week 5, and they’re struggling against quality opponents.
Point Spread
Detroit is laying a field goal in the spread market. We recommend laying the points, but for the short moneyline price, we would instead lean toward that market.
We believe Detroit will win by more than three points, but it’s hard to prevail on the road in the NFL. Additionally, it saves us from a push if they win by a field goal.
Although, if the line drops to 2.5, the spread would be our best play rather than the moneyline. Detroit is the public play this week, with 90% of the money and 78% of the tickets on their side on DraftKings.
The Lions are the best team in the NFL ATS this season at 6-2. Only Jacksonville has posted the same 75% cover rate in 2023.
It’s hard to believe in the Chargers coming into this game, even with three points at home. The Chargers are 4-4 ATS in 2023 but have only beaten one team with a current record above .500.
Detroit has too many weapons for Los Angeles’ defense to account for between Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds. Goff is also playing elite football currently, which gives us confidence in Detroit against the spread.
Over/Under
The Over/Under is 48.5, and we’re leaning Under for this line.
The total appears inflated for what these teams have done this season. Detroit is 4-4 against the Over this season, and their defense has been a primary reason games have stayed under the total.
Los Angeles is 2-6 to the Over this season. They’re not delivering on offense currently, so these teams’ styles are a perfect pairing for an Under in Week 10.
The Lions offense should have their way against the Chargers, but Campbell relies on ball control. David Montgomery will return to the playing field this week, and his running style reflects an Under type of game.
Montgomery is physical and should have success between the tackles against Los Angeles. Gibbs is also a strong runner and is looking to build off his 152-yard rushing game against the Raiders.
These two will keep the clock moving. Additionally, the Los Angeles offense has been out of sorts. It’s having a lot of difficulty finding a run game with Austin Ekeler, and Justin Herbert is coming off a 136-yard game versus the Jets.
Player Prop
A playable prop bet is Austin Ekeler’s Under 48.5 rushing yards.
We discussed how good the Lions have been on defense, as they shine in the trenches. The front seven is led by Aidan Hutchinson, and the group has defended the run at an elite level.
Detroit has the second-best defense regarding rushing yards allowed per game. They’re giving up 76.8 yards on the group, and the Chargers are in the bottom third of the league in rush defense.
When Los Angeles has found any groove running the ball, Ekeler hasn’t been in the backfield. Joshua Kelley has been the better of the two backs on the ground, and Staley is giving him the football.
Ekeler has gone under 48.5 yards in four of five games this season. He hasn’t passed 30 yards in two starts and is averaging just over 14 carries. Kelley has averaged more yards per carry in the past three weeks than Ekeler and can do it again on Sunday.
Ekeler is turning into a receiver out of the backfield, as he hasn’t hurt teams on the ground much this season.
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
