Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 28
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT
- Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Lions +290, 49ers -360
- Spread: Lions +7.5 (-120), 49ers -7.5 (-102)
- Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-114/-106)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The penultimate weekend of the 2023-24 NFL schedule includes an NFC Championship Game showdown between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers.
Both teams are coming off home wins in the Divisional Round that went down to the wire, with defense sealing the game with last-minute interceptions.
The Lions took down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-23, advancing to the Conference Championship for the second time in franchise history.
The 49ers had a tougher time dispatching the Green Bay Packers. Brock Purdy struggled in the rain but managed to lead his team on a game-winning touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter after the Packers missed a critical field goal.
On the futures board, San Francisco has the shortest Super Bowl odds of the four remaining teams at +145. Detroit has the longest odds at +750, fitting for the perennial underdog.
Can the Lions punch their ticket to their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history? Or will the 49ers end their magical run?
Moneyline
Despite sputtering for much of last week’s game against Green Bay, San Francisco enters this matchup as a huge favorite on the moneyline.
The 49ers were lucky to escape with a win last weekend, but they made big plays when it mattered. They overcame a 21-14 deficit in the fourth quarter – the first time Kyle Shanahan won a game after trailing by at least seven points in the fourth.
Purdy once again showed poise on the big stage, improving to 3-1 in the postseason. Despite having issues throwing the ball earlier in the game, he looked remarkably calm as he marched San Francisco down the field for a go-ahead touchdown in the game’s final minutes.
Purdy has yet to lose at home in the playoffs. His only postseason loss came in a game he left early due to injury.
Detroit had an easier time with an inferior Buccaneers squad, pulling away in the second half after being tied at halftime. After winning both of their home playoff games, the Lions now travel for the first time since their controversial 20-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17.
Like Purdy, Jared Goff has proven he can handle postseason pressure. He’s 5-3 in the playoffs with a 7:2 TD/INT ratio. He’s also won a conference title game, which Purdy has yet to do.
That said, the 49ers are the better team, especially on defense. San Francisco ranked third in points allowed and eighth in yards allowed during the regular season, whereas Detroit ranked below average in both categories (23rd and 19th). The 49ers also led the league in interceptions.
Offensively, these teams are evenly matched. They both rank top five in scoring and yardage. Their offenses are also similarly constructed, built around Pro Bowl quarterbacks with strong running games and elite pass catchers.
San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel is dealing with a shoulder injury but is expected to play after returning to practice this week. He exited last week’s contest in the first quarter and didn’t return, contributing to Purdy’s early passing woes.
Fortunately for Purdy, the weather should be much better this weekend. Early forecasts call for sunshine and a high near 70 degrees.
Bad-weather games have been Purdy’s kryptonite so far, but look for him to get back on track this week against a suspect Lions defense. He has never lost at home in the playoffs and owns a 20-5 record as a starter overall.
Point Spread
The Niners head into the weekend as a 7.5-point favorite on the spread.
That’s a significant gap for two teams that finished the regular season with identical 12-5 records and are essentially equal on offense. Is San Francisco’s superior defense and home-field advantage worth laying more than a touchdown?
We don’t think so. Detroit is 13-6 against the spread this year and has covered in five of its last six games.
The Lions have the more experienced quarterback and have a ton of momentum coming off back-to-back playoff wins. The 49ers are lucky to be here after last week’s disappointing performance.
Detroit also has one of the NFL’s most aggressive head coaches in Dan Campbell. Campbell will do everything he can to put pressure on his opponent (like go for it on fourth down) and keep this game close until the end.
San Francisco, on the other hand, appears somewhat vulnerable. Purdy is coming off a poor game, Samuel is banged up and Shanahan is 1-3 in conference championships.
The Niners are 9-9 against the spread but have struggled to cover recently, going just 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
The Lions may be the underdog, but they’re a live dog that will go down swinging. Take the points with Detroit.
Over/Under
The Over/Under sits at 51.5 points, which reflects the offensive firepower on display.
Both teams are led by stellar quarterbacks. Purdy paced the league in numerous passing categories this year, including touchdown percentage (7.0%), passing yards per attempt (9.6) and QBR (72.8).
Meanwhile, Goff ranked second in passing yards (4,575), fourth in passing touchdowns (30) and ninth in passer rating (97.9).
Both signal-callers are surrounded by explosive skill players who wreak havoc on opposing defenses. Between Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, both offenses are stacked.
The Lions ranked fifth in scoring and third in yardage this year. Including the playoffs, they’re averaging 27.2 points per game and have topped 30 points in four of their last six contests.
San Francisco’s even better offensively, ranking third in scoring and second in yardage. The Niners are averaging 28.6 points per game this year and are 9-8-1 against the Over, even with their stingy defense.
Detroit is one of the best Over teams in the NFL at 12-7, while San Francisco is 5-3 against the Over in its last eight games.
Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the game, and Campbell has never been afraid to push the envelope when his team has the ball. He’s not going to leave points on the board with conservative play-calling.
With two bold head coaches and so much offensive talent, this game has shootout written all over it. Expect plenty of points and take the Over.
Player Prop
One player prop to target from this game is Brock Purdy Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-230).
As mentioned, Purdy wasn’t sharp last week. He completed just 59% of his passes for 252 yards and one touchdown, failing to complete 60% of his passes for the second time in three games.
Purdy should bounce back this week against a softer defense, but expecting at least three touchdown passes from him is too much. Purdy has gone under 2.5 TD passes in four of his last five games, averaging 1.8 TD passes during that stretch.
Looking at his entire season, Purdy has gone under 2.5 touchdown passes 12 of 17 times, averaging 1.9 TD passes per game.
In his postseason career, Purdy is 1-3 to the Under for this prop. He threw three touchdowns in his playoff debut but has only one touchdown pass in his last three postseason contests combined.
The Lions allow 1.7 TD passes per game this year, including the playoffs.
Purdy could hit the Over on this prop if the game becomes a true slugfest, but we recommend the Under based on the numbers.
Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images
