The Buffalo Bills (6-2) will try to extend their lead atop the AFC East in Week 9 when they host the Miami Dolphins (2-5) on Sunday in Orchard Park, New York.
The Bills have won three straight games and lead the second-place Dolphins by 3.5 games – the largest division lead in the NFL. Buffalo is also tied with the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers for the No. 2 seed in the AFC, 1.5 games behind the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bills have been a thorn in the Dolphins’ side lately, beating them in 12 of their past 13 meetings, including a 31-10 win in Miami in Week 2. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in that game and didn’t return until last week’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals.
Both teams were considered Super Bowl contenders at the start of the year, but Miami has fallen out of contention after losing five of its last six games. Meanwhile, Buffalo enters Week 9 with the fifth-shortest championship odds at FanDuel (+850).
Here’s what to expect for this divisional showdown and how to wager on it at our favorite NFL betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024 (Week 9)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
- Watch: CBS
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Dolphins +215, Bills -260
- Spread: Dolphins +5.5 (-102), Bills -5.5 (-120)
- Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and subject to change.
Dolphins vs. Bills Moneyline
After racing out to a 6-2 start, Buffalo is well on its way to a fifth straight divisional crown. The Bills are the only AFC East team above .500 and have won five straight divisional games, including two victories over Miami during that time.
That said, the Dolphins could be poised to make a run with Tagovailoa back under center. Miami’s offense was lost without him, scoring just 40 points in the four full games that he missed.
The Dolphins bounced back with 27 points in Tagovailoa’s return last week, but still lost by one point on a last-minute field goal to the Cardinals. They’ll be extra motivated to rebound this week and earn their first win since Week 5.
Buffalo is rolling, especially at home. The Bills are 3-0 there this season and have outscored their opposition 115-48. They’ve also won their last three games by an average of 16 points.
Josh Allen & Co. have owned Miami, especially in Orchard Park. Allen is 11-2 in his career against the Dolphins with a 34:7 TD/INT ratio, including 7-0 against them at home.
Not enough has changed since Week 2 to warrant backing Miami on the road here. Thus, we will pick Buffalo, even though its moneyline odds offer little value outside of a parlay leg.
Dolphins vs. Bills Spread
We detailed Buffalo’s recent dominance, including its plus-114 point differential in home games against Miami since Allen debuted in 2018.
It’s hard to cover touchdown spreads in divisional games, even though the Bills have done so in their last three regular-season games against the Dolphins.
Miami’s offense is better with Tagovailoa back at the helm, but the defense is still allowing 22.3 points per game. Some of that stems from the offensive woes while Tagovailoa was sidelined, but it doesn’t change the fact that Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in its last three home games against the Dolphins.
The Bills should win comfortably again, probably by double-digits. Thus, we’ll back them to cover -5.5.
Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under
The Over/Under predicts close to 50 points in this game, which is a high bar to clear since the Dolphins are dead last in points per game (13.9) and the Bills are only surrendering 18.3 points per game.
Still, Buffalo may approach the Over by itself given its past success against Miami. The Dolphins are also more dangerous this week with Tagovailoa back under center, especially after he completed 73.7% of his passes for 234 yards and a touchdown last week.
Therefore, we will advocate the Over, which has hit in three of the last five games between these teams.
Dolphins vs. Bills Props
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions (-132)
Tagovailoa had one of his worst starts as a pro the last time he faced the Bills, throwing three picks before leaving the game early with a concussion.
That wasn’t his first awful performance against Buffalo, either. He has 10 career interceptions in eight starts against the Bills, including five picks in four career games in Orchard Park.
Buffalo leads the NFL in turnover margin (plus-11) and is tied with the Houston Texans for seventh in interceptions (8). Tagovailoa will need to throw a lot this week to keep up with Allen, so there’s a good chance he makes at least one mistake.
James Cook 2+ Touchdowns (+295)
Cook scored three touchdowns the last time he faced Miami and already has two multi-TD games this season, including one last week against the Seahawks.
Cook has scored in six of Buffalo’s eight games this year and is a good bet to find the end zone at least once. The Dolphins have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in seven games and were unable to stop Cook the last time they faced him.
This prop is worth a shot at plus odds, as Cook should continue getting plenty of scoring opportunities in Buffalo’s high-powered offense.
Dolphins vs. Bills Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Bills (-260). The Bills have dominated the Dolphins lately and have not lost at home this season. Expect both of those trends to continue.
- Spread: Bills -5.5 (-120). Buffalo has won by at least six points in all three of its home games this season and four of Miami’s five losses have come by at least six points.
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110). This is a high bar to clear, but the Bills’ offense is rolling and the Dolphins should score enough to push the total over.
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions (-132). Tagovailoa threw three picks the last time he faced the ball-hawking Bills and is averaging over an interception per game in Orchard Park.
- James Cook 2+ Touchdowns (+295). Cook torched Miami for three touchdowns in Week 2 and scored twice last week, making this a viable play at plus odds.
