Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Thanksgiving Game: Prediction, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets

This game is bad timing for the Dolphins, who must leave the warm sun of Miami to play a cold, late-November game at Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 4-2 this year.

The Dolphins struggled down the stretch in recent seasons, in part due to the cold weather. Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games played at 40 degrees or less, and Thursday’s temperature is expected to be in the 20s throughout the game.

Miami has feasted on bad teams this year, but has yet to beat a good team. All five of its wins have come against teams with losing records entering Week 13.

The Dolphins have yet to prove they can beat a playoff contender this year, making them difficult to trust on the road in Green Bay. The Packers are better on both sides of the ball and are used to playing in the cold, making Green Bay the safer play.

Both teams are 5-6 against the spread this year, but we’re confident in the Packers covering.

Green Bay has dominated the spread against Miami, going 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups. The Dolphins have only covered this spread in two of their last 11 cold-weather games since 2017, so history isn’t on their side.

If the Packers win this game, it will likely be by at least a field goal. Six of their eight wins have come by at least three points this year, including three of their four home wins.

Take Green Bay to cover the spread on Thursday.

This game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.

Not only is this game being played in cold weather at night, but it also features two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Packers are 10th in points allowed and 12th in yards allowed, while the Dolphins are 11th in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed.

Green Bay’s defense is particularly impressive, ranking fourth in defensive DVOA. That’s helped the Under go 4-2-1 in the Packers’ last seven games.

Expect lots of Josh Jacobs and intermediate passing from Green Bay, while the cold should limit Miami’s explosive air attack. We’re backing the Under.

Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-185)

Jacobs has been a man on a mission lately, scoring seven touchdowns over his last five games. That includes six rushing TDs over his last four games, including three last week.

With this game being played in cold weather, don’t be surprised if the Packers keep the ball on the ground. Jacobs should also be able to find the end zone again versus a Dolphins defense that’s surrendered 10 rushing scores in 11 games this year.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-115)

As mentioned above, Tagovailoa typically struggles in cold-weather games, which is why his production has historically declined late in the season.

He’s also struggled on the road this year, averaging just 219 passing yards in two away games. Lambeau Field is one of the toughest road environments in sports, so we’re not expecting a big game from Tua.

Tua has hit the Under on this prop in four of his last six games, so bet on that trend to continue.

• Moneyline: Packers (-185). Green Bay looks like a legit Super Bowl contender and should take care of business at home against an overrated Dolphins squad.
• Spread: Packers -3.5 (-105). If Green Bay wins, it will likely be by at least a field goal, especially if Miami’s offense struggles as expected.
• Over/Under: Under 47.5 (-105). With two of the league’s stingiest defenses squaring off in sub-freezing temperatures, this game should be fairly low-scoring.
• Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-185): Jacobs has been a touchdown machine lately and should find the end zone again this week.
• Tua Tagovailoa Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-115): Look for Tua’s recent hot streak to end on a chilly night in Green Bay.