NE Patriots vs. SF 49ers Week 4: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The 49ers will probably be the biggest betting favorite of any sub-.500 team this season. Their -625 moneyline odds give an implied probability of over 86 percent.

San Francisco is dealing with a slew of injuries, especially on offense. McCaffrey is on IR with an Achilles injury, Samuel is doubtful with a calf injury and Kittle is questionable with a hamstring injury.

But Kyle Shanahan has adopted a next-man-up philosophy. Despite missing all three last week and getting almost nothing from Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers nearly beat the Rams but blew a 21-7 lead in the second half.

The Patriots are early contenders to end up with the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft, especially after getting trounced by the Jets last week. San Francisco dominated New York in Week 1, and although the transitive property doesn’t typically apply to the NFL and the 49ers were more intact then, they’re still the better team.

These odds have no standalone value but are worth including in a parlay. San Francisco should win and is our moneyline pick.

The double-digit spread may seem lofty for the 49ers given their injury woes and recent struggles, but they have thoroughly dominated opponents in Santa Clara. San Francisco is 14-4 over its last 18 regular-season home games with all but one of those wins coming by at least 11 points.

So if you believe the 49ers will win (which they generally do against teams they stack up better than), they should cruise and easily cover the 10.5-point spread at home. They would probably cover even if this spread ballooned to -13, which it may.

This total is extremely low, especially given the spread, but San Francisco’s defense is far superior at home than on the road. The Niners have given up just 36 touchdowns in their past 18 home games, limiting opponents to 17 points or fewer in 12 of those contests.

Furthermore, San Francisco’s offense is missing marquee talent and is much less potent than usual, scoring 41 points over the last two weeks combined and managing just 10 points over the final three quarters against the depleted Rams last week.

New England’s offense is dreadful, ranking 31st in scoring at 13 points per game and 32nd in yardage. The Patriots managed just 139 yards of total offense last week and have scored only 19 points combined in their two road games.

Their defense is solid, however, ranking 10th in points allowed.

Given the diminished state of both offenses, we’ll back the Under in what should be a low-scoring game.

Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Aiyuk has yet to find the end zone this year, but this should be the week he finally breaks through.

Christian Gonzalez is a formidable cornerback, but he couldn’t stop the Jets’ top two receivers (Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard) from scoring last week. With McCaffrey still out, Samuel unlikely to play and Kittle potentially out or limited, Aiyuk is poised to lead San Francisco’s receiving corps after being targeted 10 times last week.

Aiyuk won’t be held out of the end zone all season and is overdue for a TD. Take him to score this weekend and enjoy the plus-money payout.

Rhamondre Stevenson Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Stevenson has topped this prop twice already but has also seen his yardage total decline every week of the season. He’s also coming off his worst game of the year after managing just 23 yards on six carries and fumbling for the third straight week.

If the Patriots fall behind early, they’ll likely abandon the run again like they did last week. They may also give more carries to Antonio Gibson given Stevenson’s ball-security issues.

This isn’t a good matchup for Stevenson, either. San Francisco’s defense is superb against the run, ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed.

With so many factors working against Stevenson, we’re betting on another quiet week from him and this prop falling short.

• Moneyline: 49ers (-625). This bet only makes sense as a parlay leg, but you also can’t wager against the Niners to win outright with their season on the brink of collapse.
• Spread: 49ers -10.5 (-110). The Patriots’ offense is reloading and has a difficult matchup on the road. San Francisco covering 10 points should be a lock.
• Total: Under 40.5 (-108). New England has scored the second-fewest points in the NFL and has to contend with an excellent defense on the road. The Patriots may not score a touchdown for the second week in a row.
• Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown (+120). Look for Aiyuk to score in a get-right game for the 49ers at home. Jauan Jennings won’t score three touchdowns again.
• Rhamondre Stevenson Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-120). Stevenson has struggled holding onto the ball of late, and the game script could have a major impact on this prop. Stevenson is in danger of losing touches to Gibson as well.

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