New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals Week 1: Promos, Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

One of the bigger offseason talking points in the Queen City has been how the Bengals can reverse their recent trend of slow starts. Zac Taylor’s team started 0-2 in each of the past two seasons, and no Cincinnati team has started 2-0 since 2018. The Bengals started last year 1-3 after stumbling to a 2-3 start in 2022.

Despite those lousy early-season results, we’re still taking Cincinnati on the moneyline.

The league’s schedule-makers have done the Bengals a favor by handing them a season opener against an opponent coming off a four-win season. The Patriots also have a rookie head coach who’s starting journeyman Jacoby Brissett and his 18-30 record as a starting quarterback.

Even if third-overall pick Drake Maye ultimately takes over the starting job and shines for New England, there’s not much on the roster to suggest the offense will improve substantially from its league-worst ranking in both points per game and percentage of offensive drives that resulted in a score last year.

The Patriots were among the NFL’s worst teams in yards per play and yards gained per drive, and only two teams scored fewer touchdowns. This year’s personnel seems equally limited.

In Pro Football Focus’ pre-training camp rankings, New England ranked last in wide receivers, 25th in running backs and 28th in offensive line, a low placement that came before that unit performed poorly in preseason games.

Subjective rankings always leave room for interpretation, and teams, units and players do outperform what even the most qualified analysts project. However, there simply isn’t enough to like about the Patriots’ roster to believe it can go on the road and win outright as nearly a double-digit underdog in Week 1.

Even if we acknowledge how unevenly Cincinnati has performed in its last two season openers (including a home loss as nearly a touchdown favorite in 2022) and how little value it has at these odds, betting on the underdog to pull off the upset seems hard to justify.

The Bengals are Week 1’s largest favorite and are one of only four teams over the last five seasons to lay more than nine points in their opener. Favorites of more than a touchdown are only 5-8 against the spread in Week 1 since 2019, and Cincinnati has lost straight up as a favorite in its last two openers.

That said, we’re going to buck those recent trends and take the home team to cover the spread.

The Bengals’ issues in their last two openers haven’t been solely limited to Burrow’s performances, but in neither game did he play like himself. He had five turnovers against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2022 opener and looked like he’d just been introduced to the sport in last year’s blowout loss to the Cleveland Browns.

In neither instance was Burrow coming off a normal training camp. An appendectomy in 2022 and a calf issue last season severely interrupted his prep for the season, and the lingering effects of both were painfully evident in his performance.

Burrow’s injury history is exhaustive for a player who’s entering just his fifth season, and concerns about his health will be amplified if he gets injured again this season. But for now, there’s little reason to worry about his Week 1 status.

Sporting a new hairdo, Burrow participated in offseason workouts and nearly every training camp practice. While his snaps in preseason games were limited to just one series, he looked good enough while leading a touchdown drive to ease any doubts about whether he will start the season and play better in Week 1.

Burrow received a nice welcome back present during training camp from the Patriots when they traded four-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon to the Atlanta Falcons, shipping away one of their best players.

For all of its offensive woes last year, New England ranked fifth in expected points added per play on defense and yielded the NFL’s fewest yards per carry despite losing several top defenders to injury.

However, the Patriots no longer have Judon to chase down, disrupt and sack Burrow. They also don’t have enough offensive pieces to test Cincinnati’s new-look secondary, a unit that must improve on last year’s league-worst showing against explosive plays.

The Bengals have a recent history of clunky offensive showings in openers, but Burrow is poised to change that. He’s also been among the NFL’s most reliable quarterbacks against the spread since entering the league with a 31-20-1 record ATS over his career, including an 18-12-1 mark as a favorite.

This is admittedly a big number to cover for a team that finished last in its division a season ago, but Burrow is an MVP candidate at home facing arguably the worst team in the league.

Cincinnati’s potent offense makes wagers on the Over tempting, but the Bengals are usually a reliable Under bet. Since Burrow’s rookie season in 2020, Cincinnati’s games have gone under the posted total at a 54 percent clip. Based on that trend and New England’s non-existent offense, we’re making a play on the Under.

It’s fair to wonder if the Bengals have improved their defense enough from last season to go from worst to first in the NFL’s most competitive division. Cincinnati was last in the league in yards allowed per play, second-worst in yards allowed per rush attempt and tied for worst in yards allowed per pass completion. The Bengals responded with changes to their defensive line and secondary that will be tested once they start playing against quality offenses.

However, the Patriots do not have a quality offense.

A play on the Over would involve banking on Brissett to find the end zone multiple times or on a massive showing by Cincinnati’s offense. Even if you believe the Bengals will score enough to cover as a big favorite, they may take a little while to shake off the preseason rust given their track record of sluggish starts.

Also remember what happened in Week 1 last year, when the Under hit in 12 of 16 games as teams combined for the second-fewest Week 1 points in 13 years. The smart play across the league is to bet on defenses to be ahead of the offenses, a strategy that will apply to this game as well.

Evan McPherson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-135)

McPherson has made at least two field goals in 25 of his 49 career games. He has a big leg – connecting on 21 of 28 attempts from beyond 50 yards — which gives the Bengals an opportunity for points even when drives stall well before they reach the red zone.

Despite ranking in the top 10 in red zone touchdown percentage in each of the past few seasons, Cincinnati’s recent early-season struggles suggest it may need to settle for field goals against a Patriots defense that tries to bend without breaking.

Bengals First Touchdown Scorer: Tee Higgins (+900)

Higgins has scored the Bengals’ first TD in two of the past three seasons, plus he was the recipient of Burrow’s only preseason scoring toss this summer. After not getting a contract extension and being franchise-tagged this offseason, Higgins will be motivated to showcase his value and have something to prove this year.

With Ja’Marr Chase distracting New England’s defense, Higgins could sneak by for the game’s first touchdown.

• Moneyline: Bengals (-450). There’s very little value here, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario that involves Burrow losing at home to a team that may end the season with next year’s top draft pick.
• Spread: Bengals -8.5 (-115). Big numbers this early in the season are scary, but not as scary as New England’s offense.
• Over/Under: Under 40.5 (-104). The Patriots’ defense is just decent enough to keep Cincinnati from hitting the Over on their own.
• Prop 1: Evan McPherson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-135). McPherson is one of the best kickers in the game and should be busy in a lopsided win for the Bengals.
• Prop 2: Bengals First Touchdown Scorer: Tee Higgins (+900). Higgins will be motivated to make a statement in Week 1 and should be able to capitalize on his connection with Burrow.

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