In the 2018 NFL Draft, NFL teams did something they hadn’t in 19 years: draft five quarterbacks in the first round.
That year, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson heard their name called in the first 32 picks, marking the first time five quarterbacks went in the first round since Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper and Cade McNown were picked in the first round of the 1999 draft.
It took just three years for that phenomenon to happen again, as Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones went in the first round in 2021, capping off one of the wilder pre-draft processes in recent memory.
This year’s draft could mark the first time six quarterbacks go in the first round since John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O’Brien and Dan Marino in the 1983 draft.
DraftKings Sportsbook allows bettors to wager on how many quarterbacks will be taken in the draft’s first round. The odds are below.
Total quarterbacks selected in first round:
- Over 4.5: -400
- Under 4.5: +300
While there have only been four instances of five or more quarterbacks going in the first round of the draft, oddsmakers expect a quarterback-heavy first round this year.
Here’s a look at some of the top QB prospects who could go in the first round this year, along with a brief history of how many quarterbacks have gone in the first round in recent drafts.
Recent History of Quarterbacks Going in the First Round
The number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round varies by year, but modern drafts are guaranteed to have multiple quarterbacks taken in the first round.
Here’s a look at how the last few drafts have gone from a QB standpoint in the first round:
- 2018: 5 (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson). One of the most quarterback-heavy first rounds in recent memory. Mayfield, Darnold, Allen and Rosen all went in the top 10 before Jackson went to the Baltimore Ravens with the No. 32 pick, which turned out to be an absolute steal for them.
- 2019: 3 (Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins). Murray went to the Arizona Cardinals with the No. 1 pick, choosing the NFL over MLB. Jones (No. 6) and Haskins (No. 15) also went in the first half of the draft.
- 2020: 4 (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love). Burrow, Tagovailoa and Herbert were all top-six picks, while Love surprisingly went to the Green Bay Packers with the 26th pick (much to Aaron Rodgers’ chagrin). All four of these quarterbacks have already appeared in the postseason.
- 2021: 5 (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones). Another quarterback-heavy first round. Lawrence, Wilson and Lance went with the top-three picks, followed by Fields at No. 11 and Jones at No. 15. While all have shown promise at various points, Lawrence is the only one to enjoy sustained success at the NFL level.
- 2022: 1 (Kenny Pickett). One of the weirder quarterback drafts in recent years, as Pickett was the lone quarterback taken in the first two rounds at No. 20 overall. He put together two uneven seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers before being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason. Brock Purdy, who was taken with the last pick in the draft, has surprisingly been the best quarterback of this class.
- 2023: 3 (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson). Last year marked a return to normalcy as three QBs went in the top-four picks. The trio has been a mixed bag so far, but Stroud already looks like a star after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and leading the Houston Texans to the playoffs.
Which Quarterbacks Could Go in the First Round?
Caleb Williams, USC
Pick odds: -20000 to be No. 1 Pick
Williams is the heavy betting favorite to go first overall and is widely expected to land with the Chicago Bears. The Bears hold the No. 1 pick in the draft and traded quarterback Justin Fields to the Steelers this offseason, paving the way for them to take Williams first overall.
Williams won the 2022 Heisman after racking up 4,537 passing yards and 42 passing touchdowns for USC, demonstrating his enormous potential.
Jayden Daniels, LSU
Pick odds: -1000 to be No. 2 pick, +750 to be No. 3 pick
The reigning Heisman trophy winner, Daniels is expected to go to the Washington Commanders with the No. 2 pick. While Daniels is still a project, he’s a dual-threat quarterback who threw for more than 3,800 yards and ran for more than 1,100 yards last year with LSU.
The Daniels-to-Washington hype hit a fever pitch at the end of March when LSU head coach Brian Kelly said in an interview that Daniels would “get the ball to his playmakers in Washington.”
Drake Maye, North Carolina
Pick odds: +600 to be No. 2 pick, -240 to be No. 3 pick
A four-star recruit who originally committed to Alabama, Maye has all the physical traits you could want in a quarterback. He’s got a big, live arm, stands tall in the pocket and can make plays with his legs.
Maye’s play took a small step back last year, but that doesn’t seem to have hampered his draft stock. DraftKings expects him to go either second or third overall.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Pick odds: +190 to be No. 3 pick, +380 to be No. 4 pick, +300 to be No. 5 pick, +500 to be No. 6 pick
McCarthy’s stock has soared over the past few months as NFL general managers appear to have fallen in love with his poise and potential. He only had 713 pass attempts in his career at Michigan (the fewest of any of the top-four prospects), but he went 27-1 as a starter and completed 67.6% of his passes.
McCarthy also helped lead the Wolverines to a national championship as a senior, proving he can perform under pressure. While it’s still unclear where he’ll fall in the first round, he has -200 odds to go in the top five and -1000 odds to go in the top 10 at DraftKings.
Bo Nix, Oregon
Pick odds: -105 to go in first round
Nix started his college career at Auburn before transferring to Oregon, where he dramatically improved the last two seasons. Nix finished third in the 2023 Heisman race after throwing for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns with just three interceptions. He started 61 games in his college career (an FBS record) but seems to have as many pros as cons.
Nix obviously has experience, but his arm has some limitations. He also isn’t a finished product despite his extensive college experience. Like Michael Penix Jr. (see below), it’s uncertain whether he’ll go in the first round, but the potential is there.
Michael Penix Jr., University of Washington
Pick odds: -400 to go in first round
After spending four years at the University of Indiana, Penix transferred to the University of Washington ahead of the 2022 season, where he threw for over 9,500 yards in two years and led the Huskies to the National Championship Game as the Heisman runner-up last season.
The big lefty quarterback has struggled with injuries throughout his college career and doesn’t have the biggest arm. He’ll also be 24 when the 2024 season starts, which is a bit old for a prospect. Penix is a huge wild card who could fall out of the first round, but there’s still a decent chance he gets taken at some point in the first round.
2024 NFL Draft Quarterback Predictions
Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy all seem like locks to go in the first round, which means you’ll just need either Nix or Penix to go in the first round for the Over 4.5 market to hit.
The Bears will take Williams with the No. 1 pick, and all signs point towards the Commanders and Patriots taking quarterbacks with the second and third picks. The Cardinals hold the No. 4 pick but are reportedly shopping it to quarterback-needy teams.
This is where the Minnesota Vikings could get involved, especially if Maye is still on the board (Vikings quarterbacks coach Josh McCown coached Maye in high school).
Additionally, Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton wants a new QB after trading away Russell Wilson. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him select Nix or Penix at No. 12 or trade up to No. 4. The New York Giants are also reportedly enamored with McCarthy and could trade up to take him.
With such a high demand for quarterbacks this year and a relatively deep draft class, betting on at least five QBS getting taken in the first round looks like a good bet.
Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images
