The NFL legal tampering window opened on Monday, leading to a slew of pre-free agent agreements and a shake-up in Super Bowl futures odds.
The window, which designates when upcoming unrestricted free agents can start speaking to other teams, opened on March 11 at 12 p.m. ET and closed on March 13 at 4 p.m. ET.
Kirk Cousins, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are just a few of the marquee players who have already agreed to change teams. But what was the window’s overall impact on the Super Bowl betting picture?
QBs Change the Super Bowl Picture
As if any reminder was needed, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. That was evident in the shifting futures odds following the contract agreements of Cousins and Russell Wilson.
Cousins agreed to a four-year, $180 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons, where he’ll team up with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds at BetMGM Sportsbook jumped from +5000 before the legal tampering window to +3000 after the Cousins signing (tied for 12th-best).
The Minnesota Vikings, Cousins’ former team, responded to the news by signing former No. 3 pick Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal and adding former Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones. However, they also lost Danielle Hunter and ultimately fell from +4000 to +8000 Super Bowl odds (tied for eighth-worst).
The Pittsburgh Steelers agreed to a one-year deal for the veteran’s minimum with Wilson in a low-risk, potentially high-reward situation. The deal adds depth to a quarterback room that struggled mightily last year and provides competition for 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett, who threw just six touchdowns in 12 games in his second professional season.
The agreement also presents Wilson with an opportunity to reinvigorate his career after two disappointing seasons with the Denver Broncos.
The Steelers, who also agreed to terms with All-Pro linebacker Patrick Queen, climbed from +8000 to +6600 to win the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Odds Movement
- Atlanta Falcons: +5000 to +3000
- Minnesota Vikings: +4000 to +8000
- Pittsburgh Steelers: +8000 to +6600
Bettors Respond to Player Movement
The San Francisco 49ers (+500), Kansas City Chiefs (+650) and Baltimore Ravens (+900) have the shortest Super Bowl odds at BetMGM. Despite that, the Steelers were the most-bet team to win the Super Bowl during the first day of the tampering window, claiming 21.1% of all tickets.
The Philadelphia Eagles had the second-highest amount of Super Bowl futures bets (13.6%), followed by the defending champion Chiefs (8.9%).
The Falcons were fifth at 5.4%.
Super Bowl Ticket Percentage
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 21.1%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 13.6%
- Kansas City Chiefs: 8.9%
The betting handle mostly mirrored the ticket percentage. The Steelers were responsible for 28.6%, followed by the Eagles (14%) and Chiefs (9.6%).
The Steelers are also the public’s favorite to claim the AFC title for the first time since 2010. The Steelers have 44% of bets and 50% of money to win the AFC at +4000 odds, both the highest amounts of any team in the conference.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have the highest amount of bets (22%) to win the NFC. They moved from +2000 to +1400, while the Vikings dropped from +1800 to +3500 to win the conference following Cousins’ decision.
The Falcons have 60% of bets and 87% of money to win the NFC South, where they moved from +140 to a +100 favorite.
The Justin Fields Domino
One of the most discussed storylines heading into the offseason was what the Chicago Bears would do with the No. 1 pick in the draft and the implications that would have on Justin Fields.
Despite a plethora of movement, no news has emerged regarding where Fields will play next fall. The Bears are expected to keep the first pick and will presumably select USC QB Caleb Williams (-2000 odds to be drafted first), which would likely relegate Fields to backup duty.
Fields was linked to both the Falcons and Steelers prior to the legal tampering window, but it’s now unlikely that he will go to either of those destinations. It was believed he could command a first or second-round pick in a trade, but that appears less likely with each passing day.
The Vikings may still be an option if they want to keep Darnold as a backup. Star wideout Justin Jefferson could also influence their decision if he expresses frustration with their quarterback situation.
The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots are expected to draft quarterbacks with the No. 2 and 3 picks this spring, but neither has emerged as a potential suitor for Fields.
What is the NFL Legal Tampering Period?
The NFL legal tampering period is a 52-hour window in which upcoming unrestricted free agents may negotiate contracts with interested teams before free agency begins. Players cannot sign any contracts until the official start of free agency, however.
When Does Legal Tampering Begin Each Offseason?
The legal tampering period begins two days before the start of free agency. The 2024 window opened on Monday, March 11 at 12 p.m. ET and closed on Wednesday, March 13 at 4 p.m. ET.
Why Did the NFL Create the Legal Tampering Period?
The NFL created the legal tampering period in 2012 as a way to prevent illegal tampering.
Teams cannot directly correspond with players but can negotiate contracts with their representatives. However, there are a few exceptions to this rule.
One exception allows a pending free agent to negotiate with the team they were last employed by. The team can speak to the player directly, and the player can sign a contract before free agency begins.
Released players are eligible to meet and sign with teams before the legal tampering period. Teams can also permit players to speak to other teams if they will be released in the future.
Super Bowl Futures Best Bets
The Chiefs (+650) are an ever-present threat to win the Super Bowl thanks to the quarterback-coach combo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Travis Kelce will be 35 in October, but Chris Jones’ re-signing ensures the defense will remain solid.
The Packers (+2200) are an interesting pick after winning a playoff game and nearly upsetting the 49ers in the Divisional Round. Jordan Love finished the year with 32 passing touchdowns and only 11 interceptions, and the addition of Josh Jacobs should make them stronger in the running game.
The Houston Texans (+2500) have great value following tremendous rookie seasons by QB C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans. They already agreed to contracts with Danielle Hunter and Jeff Okudah, among others, and will have a better and more experienced roster than they did a year ago.
Photo by: Diamond Images/Getty Images
