NFL MVP Odds: How To Bet On MVP Award

See below for the NFL MVP odds heading into NFL Week 13.

• Josh Allen: +150
• Lamar Jackson: +250
• Saquon Barkley: +475
• Jared Goff: +700
• Patrick Mahomes: +1300
• Justin Herbert: +2200
• Jalen Hurts: +2500
• Joe Burrow: +3000
• Baker Mayfield: +3500
• Jordan Love: +5000
• Jayden Daniels: +6000
• Derrick Henry: +7000
• Kyler Murray: +7500
• Sam Darnold: +9000
• C.J. Stroud: +9000

Since the Associated Press started voting on the award in 1957, the process for determining the NFL’s Most Valuable Player has been straightforward but sometimes vague.

From a technical perspective, the voting process is simple. The award used to be decided by a panel of 50 sportswriters, each of whom would cast a single vote for MVP. 

That changed ahead of the 2022 season, when voters instead submitted a list of five players in the first instance of ranked-choice voting. Mahomes was the first player to win under the new format.

That hasn’t answered the larger question surrounding this award: what does “most valuable” mean? Should it reward the best player on the best team or the one with the best individual performance that season?

Voters have rarely reached a consensus, leading to unpredictability and some opportunity for NFL MVP bettors.

Has there ever been a unanimous NFL MVP winner?

While it’s rare, there have been two players who won NFL MVP unanimously – and they posted remarkably similar stat lines.

In 2010, Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to the NFL’s best record (14-2) and scoring offense (32.4 PPG), throwing for 36 touchdowns en route to the first unanimous NFL MVP honors.

Nine years later, Lamar Jackson tossed 36 touchdowns of his own while helping the Baltimore Ravens (14-2) pace the league in scoring (33.2 PPG) to secure all 50 first-place votes.

Jackson finished one vote shy of another unanimous victory in 2023.

Has there ever been a tie for NFL MVP?

Yes, there have been two instances in NFL history of a tie for the MVP award. 

The first was in 1997, when Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre and Detroit Lions running back Barry Sanders tied for the award. The second instance was six years later in 2003, when quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Steve McNair tied for the award.

With the change to ranked-choice voting in 2022, ties should be less likely going forward.

Several factors impact the NFL MVP odds on a week-to-week basis, including player performance, team performance and injuries.

Player Performance

The most obvious reason for a change in MVP odds is player performance. Because there are only 17 games in the NFL regular season, any single performance – good or bad – can cause a dramatic shift in a player’s odds to win this award.

This is especially true early in the season when one big performance can catapult a player’s MVP stock because of the small sample size.

That’s been the case in recent seasons for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who vaulted to the top spot on the MVP oddsboard in 2022 and 2023 after a hot start through the first few weeks before tailing off.

Odds can still change significantly late in the season, too. That happened in 2023 with Jackson, who didn’t become the favorite until the season’s final weeks. His odds spiked dramatically from -160 to -20000 following his aforementioned Week 17 performance, at which point he became the clear frontrunner.

Team Performance

Another major factor is team performance. This is particularly true late in the year when teams are vying for the No. 1 seed in their conference or the best overall record in the league.

Win-loss record can often be a de facto “tiebreaker” in a race between two players with similarly prolific stat lines. Thus, one win or loss can significantly impact the NFL MVP oddsboard – especially for quarterbacks, whose candidacy is often tied to their team’s success.

Making the playoffs is an unofficial prerequisite for the award. Only two MVPs have won the award without reaching the postseason – Johnny Unitas in 1967 and O.J. Simpson in 1973.

Injuries

Injuries obviously have a large role in shaping the overall standings and the individual awards betting markets. The NFL MVP race is no different.

Take the 2023 NFL season, for example. Aaron Rodgers entered the year with the seventh-shortest MVP odds at BetMGM (+1600) and was among the most popular bets to win the award. However, his season ended after just four plays, as a torn Achilles prematurely ruined the four-time MVP’s first season with the New York Jets.

In 2022, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was the betting favorite to win MVP entering Week 16. However, a shoulder injury sidelined him for two of his team’s final three games – opening the door for Patrick Mahomes to win his second trophy.

Historically, the NFL MVP award has been a quarterback’s honor, with signal-callers claiming 48 of 69 spots (69.6%) on the list of winners.

Running backs have won 18 MVP awards, including four of the first six, but they haven’t won since Adrian Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards with the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.

Since then, quarterbacks have taken home 11 straight MVP trophies and 22 of the last 26.

Has a defensive player ever won NFL MVP?

Only three NFL players have ever won MVP without playing quarterback or running back, and it hasn’t happened since the 1986 season.

That’s when New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor recorded 20.5 sacks amid one of the most dominant seasons by a defender in NFL history.

He joined defensive tackle Alan Page (1971) as the only defensive players to win the award, while kicker Mark Moseley (1982) is the only specialist ever to win MVP.

Since the award was first handed out in 1957, the average age for the NFL MVP winner has been 29 years old, with 36 of 69 winners (52.2%) falling between 26 and 31.

We’ve seen a wide range of ages win this award in recent years. Three of the last seven winners have been between 37 and 40 years old, while the other four were between 22 and 27. Nearly half (34) of those 69 winners were at least 29 when they claimed the award.

Who is the youngest NFL MVP winner?

Jim Brown took home the NFL’s first-ever MVP award in 1957. He’s also the youngest MVP winner in league history (21) and the only rookie to ever win the award.

Neither of those feats has been matched in nearly seven decades since, though Lamar Jackson (22) became the second-youngest MVP in league history after his dominant 2019 season.

Who is the oldest NFL MVP winner?

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Tom Brady, who won three MVPs over his illustrious 23-year career, also became the NFL’s oldest winner at age 40 in 2017.

Brady joined Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Rich Gannon and Y.A. Tittle as the only players to win NFL MVP after their age-35 season. Rodgers is the only player to do it twice.

Only 11 players in NFL history have claimed multiple MVP awards, and none have taken home more hardware than Peyton Manning, who won the award five times across 17 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos.

In 2009, Manning became the only player in NFL history to win back-to-back MVPs twice. He also received all but one vote in two of his MVP seasons (2004 and 2013) and joined Tom Brady as the only players to receive MVP votes in 10 different seasons.

Among active players, Aaron Rodgers has the most MVP trophies with four, including two in the last three seasons. With his second straight MVP in 2021, he joined Manning, Brett Favre, Joe Montana and Jim Brown as the only players to win the award in consecutive seasons.

Brown, who won the first two MVP awards in NFL history, is the only non-quarterback to win it multiple times.

Drew Brees (4) has the most runner-up finishes without winning an MVP trophy, coming up short in 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2018. Randall Cunningham (3), Eric Dickerson (3), Jerry Rice (2) and Dan Fouts (2) also posted multiple second-place finishes without ever winning.

While we’ve seen some historic yardage totals from recent MVP winners – Mahomes set the all-time passing yardage mark (5,614) in 2022 – just four of the last 20 winners led the league in passing yards.

Instead, voters have placed more emphasis on touchdowns and efficiency.

Of the last 27 quarterbacks to win MVP, 15 led the league in touchdown passes and 18 in touchdown rate – including each of the last five winners.

Incredibly, 14 of the last 17 MVP winners ranked in the top three in QBR, leading the league in 10 of those seasons and six of the last eight.

Does team success (wins) impact NFL MVP results?

There’s no way around it: team success has a major impact on the NFL MVP race.

Since Barry Sanders won with the Detroit Lions (9-7) in 1997, every MVP winner has played for a team with double-digit wins, with 23 of those 27 teams winning at least 12 games and averaging roughly 13 wins across the board.

No MVP winner has ever played for a team with a losing record. Only two MVP winners have missed the postseason – Johnny Unitas (1967) and O.J. Simpson (1973) – and even their teams boasted a combined 76.9% win percentage, translating to a 13-win pace across a 17-game season.

Do the NFL playoffs affect MVP results?

The NFL postseason doesn’t affect the MVP results for one simple reason: voting happens at the end of the regular season.

MVP voters don’t consider performances during the NFL playoffs. If they did, we might see different results. Only 11 players have won the Super Bowl and MVP in the same season, which hadn’t happened for 23 years until Mahomes in 2022.

See below for the list of NFL MVP winners since 2000.

• 2023: Lamar Jackson
• 2022: Patrick Mahomes
• 2021: Aaron Rodgers
• 2020: Aaron Rodgers
• 2019: Lamar Jackson
• 2018: Patrick Mahomes
• 2017: Tom Brady
• 2016: Matt Ryan
• 2015: Cam Newton
• 2014: Aaron Rodgers
• 2013: Peyton Manning
• 2012: Adrian Peterson
• 2011: Aaron Rodgers
• 2010: Tom Brady
• 2009: Peyton Manning
• 2008: Peyton Manning
• 2007: Tom Brady
• 2006: LaDainian Tomlinson
• 2005: Shaun Alexander
• 2004: Peyton Manning
• 2003: Peyton Manning & Steve McNair
• 2002: Rich Gannon
• 2001: Kurt Warner
• 2000: Marshall Faulk

While odds for some preseason markets are hard to track prior to the last decade, Matt Ryan entered the 2016 season as a 75/1 long shot and subsequently became one of the biggest long-shot MVP winners in the history of professional sports.

The longtime Atlanta Falcons quarterback was dealing as high as 100/1 at some shops ahead of his ninth season. He proceeded to torch the league for 4,944 passing yards and 38 touchdowns en route to his first and only MVP award.

Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Lamar Jackson (2019) were both priced around 100/1 a few months before their MVP-winning campaigns – which doubled as their first full seasons as starters – but they each settled around 40/1 entering Week 1.

Those three quarterbacks were among the six MVP winners in the last 11 seasons to enter the season with 30/1 odds or longer – joining Adrian Peterson (+4000) in 2012, Cam Newton (+5200) in 2015 and Aaron Rodgers (+3000) in 2020.

The other five winners entered the season with 11/1 odds or shorter, which should come as no surprise when you see the list: Peyton Manning (2013), Tom Brady (2017), Rodgers (2014, 2021) and Mahomes (2022).

The ability of long shots to win is a good reminder that wagering on the NFL is risky and that you should always bet responsibly when making predictions for your favorite teams or players.

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images