NFL Week 11: Best Spread Bets & Picks

The first game of the week is a big one, as first place in the NFC East is on the line.

The Commanders are one of the league’s better stories this season, but last week’s loss to the Steelers only enhanced the narrative that their 7-3 record is a byproduct of their soft schedule. After all, six of their seven victories have come against teams with losing records.

They get a chance to prove themselves this week against an Eagles team that’s won five in a row. Philadelphia’s defense was the best in the league in adjusted yards per play allowed during that time.

The Eagles are also terrific on the ground, ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards per game, adjusted line yards on runs by their running backs and expected points added by rushing offense. That’s bad news for Washington, which ranks 27th in defensive rush EPA.

Given Philadelphia’s improved defense and balanced offense, we’ll lay the points and wager on the Eagles (-3.5) at home.

Few teams this season have authored a victory as memorable as the Lions’ win last week. Playing against a good Texans team on the road on Sunday Night Football, Detroit trailed by 16 points at halftime before storming back for a seventh straight victory.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars suffered an ugly 12-7 loss to the Vikings with Mac Jones filling in for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder).

Jones was horrendous, throwing two picks and guiding Jacksonville to 143 yards of total offense. Now he’ll face a Lions defense that ranks third in DVOA and behind an offensive line that’s dead last in pass block win rate.

The Jaguars are also last in defensive success rate, a troublesome metric considering Detroit’s offensive balance.

Bettors investing in the Lions need them to cover the largest spread of the season, but Detroit has won four games by double digits this year (including its last two home games) and is more than capable of covering.

We’ll lay the big number and take the Lions (-13.5) at home.

The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after scoring just three points in last week’s home loss to the Patriots. Maybe a new play-caller in Chicago will stop Caleb Williams’ regression, but the offense is too broken for us to feel comfortable investing in it.

The Bears have failed to score a touchdown in their last 23 offensive drives, sliding to 30th in offensive DVOA. Williams has also taken 18 sacks over his last three games.

The Packers are coming off a bye, giving them extra time to prepare for Williams & Co. Green Bay has its own offensive issues, as Jordan Love has thrown the most interceptions in the NFL and only two teams have more dropped passes.

But the Packers are still third in points per drive. Their offense also has the league’s third-lowest sack percentage and an offensive line equipped to slow down a Chicago defense that’s fifth in pass rush win rate.

Green Bay isn’t perfect, but the Bears are a sinking ship. Give us the Packers (-5.5) as road favorites.

The Patriots have played competently since head coach Jerod Mayo called them “soft” after their Week 7 loss to the Jaguars in London. They’ve won two of their last three as rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown promise.

Even if the Rams are coming off a sleepy performance in a home loss to the Dolphins on Monday night, they’re still better than New England’s recent opponents. While the Patriots’ recent performances have been commendable, they still rank last in both pass block and run block win rate, 29th in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA.

Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay’s teams are typically terrific on short rest. The Rams are 14-6 against the spread under McVay when they’ve had less than a week to prepare, including 5-0 in their last five such games.

Los Angeles has the better team and the more experienced coach/quarterback combo. We’ll wager on the Rams (-4.5) as road favorites.

The Saints won Darren Rizzi’s interim head coaching debut last week and ended their seven-game losing streak, beating the Falcons as home underdogs.

The Browns were off last week, giving them time to get healthy on the offensive and defensive lines. Cleveland’s defense hasn’t played like last year’s unit, but it’s still top-seven in both dropback success rate and overall success rate.

The Browns are also sixth in pass rush win rate and should have an advantage against an offensive line that ranks second-to-last in pass block win rate.

Both quarterbacks are wild cards, and Derek Carr is just 29-41-1 against the spread following an outright victory.

Neither side is particularly trustworthy, and any investment in this tilt should be modest. That said, we like Cleveland (+1.5) as a road underdog.

The Vikings enter mid-November with an excellent record backed by a defense that’s ranked at the top of the NFL in DVOA, but Sam Darnold’s pace has slowed considerably as of late. Darnold has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes over his last five starts, including three picks last week while leading his team to just 12 points against one of the league’s worst defenses (Jacksonville).

There are no reasons to be excited about the Titans offensively, but Tennessee’s defense is respectable, yielding the fewest yards per game in the NFL.

Points could be at a premium in this game, making the Titans even more appealing on the spread. While the records might suggest a mismatch, we’ll bank on Darnold continuing to struggle and take Tennessee (+5.5) at home.

A battle between two sub-.500 teams in Week 11 might not seem like a playoff elimination game, but with the Colts and Jets both within two games of the AFC’s seventh seed, that’s the case here.

DVOA metrics highlight how evenly matched these teams are. Indianapolis and New York rank 21st and 22nd in overall DVOA, but the Jets’ defense has plummeted since they moved on from defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh. In their five games since the coaching change, they rank last in opponent EPA per play.

The Colts might not be equipped to put up tons of points, but they do average 4.7 yards per rush. Jonathan Taylor has averaged at least 5.3 yards per carry in two of his last three games, and Anthony Richardson is back under center after being benched for several weeks.

New York’s offense has been shockingly lifeless with Rodgers, so we’ll take the points and bet on Indy (+3.5) as a road underdog.

It probably wasn’t enough to vault them into the playoff race, but the Dolphins played a solid game on Monday night, winning on the road against the Rams. More importantly, Tua Tagovailoa has stayed healthy in his first two games back from a concussion.

The Raiders are riding a five-game losing streak, and their postseason chances died weeks ago. They come out of their bye ranked 31st in offensive DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA.

Not only did Las Vegas just move on from nearly its entire offensive coaching staff, but it also employs a head coach who’s spent his first full season making baffling in-game decisions.

There are times when it’s impossible to bet on a team no matter how many points they’re getting, and this is one of those times. Give us Miami (-7) at home.

The Ravens held on last Thursday to win another thrilling matchup with the Bengals, once again showcasing their potent offense and porous defense.

The Steelers’ road win against the Commanders last week was equally stirring. Pittsburgh rallied from a 10-point second-half deficit in a game that continued to validate Mike Tomlin’s decision to switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback.

Although their offensive metrics might not match Baltimore’s, the Steelers have averaged more than 30 points over their last four games. Pittsburgh also has a significant edge in special teams, ranking third in special teams DVOA while the Ravens are 19th.

Those metrics and Baltimore’s defensive shakiness point us toward the points. We’ll take them and make a bet on the Steelers (+3) as home underdogs.

The Seahawks’ 3-0 start seems like a lifetime ago. They’ve lost five of six since then, including a 36-24 home defeat to the 49ers.

Seattle’s fast start proved to be fool’s gold – a product of an easy schedule and facing bad/inexperienced quarterbacks. The fact that they’re the league’s most-penalized team doesn’t inspire any confidence, nor does the fact that San Francisco has won the last six head-to-head meetings, covering in five of them.

But after the 49ers let teams hang around the last two games, we’ll fade them and invest in the Seahawks capitalizing on San Francisco’s inability to finish drives.

Give us Seattle (+6.5) on the road.

The Broncos were a blocked kick away from handing the Chiefs their first loss last week. They’re now clinging to the AFC’s final playoff spot with a .500 record.

Denver did play well enough to win, though, especially on defense. Its defense is top-five in success rate and first in pass rush win rate.

The Falcons gave away last week’s game, falling on the road to the Saints after missing three missed field goals. Atlanta’s defense also continued to play poorly, allowing New Orleans to gain seven yards per play.

The lack of pass rush is an issue for the Falcons, who rank 29th in pressure rate. This week they’ll try to break through against an offensive line that’s first in pass block win rate.

The Broncos hardly scare anyone on offense, but they have a clear edge on defense here and only have to cover less than a field goal.

We’ll lay the points and back Denver (-1.5) at home.

The Chiefs continue to win, sometimes in remarkable fashion, like last week’s latest escape act featuring a walk-off blocked field goal.

The Bills have won five in a row, topping 30 points in their last four games and covering as favorites three times.

Kansas City is getting points for the second time this season, which is usually good news for Patrick Mahomes bettors. He’s 11-3 straight up as an underdog and 12-1-1 against the spread.

Both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive DVOA and have short Super Bowl odds this year, but only one of them has Mahomes, and we’re not betting against him when he’s getting points.

Our money is on the Chiefs (+2.5) as road underdogs.

Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have been outstanding this year, and yet the Bengals enter Week 11 barely clinging to Wild Card contention with a 4-6 record.

Their defense is the culprit. Cincinnati ranks 27th in defensive DVOA, 28th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate, which explains why the Bengals are 2-3 when scoring 30-plus points this year.

Cincinnati’s offense is in the top 10 in DVOA and success rate, but it’s feasted on poor defenses. The Chargers have an elite one, ranking second on EPA per play on defense and first in opposing points per play.

They also commit to the run, as only five teams run more frequently. Given that the Bengals’ defense is 31st in rushing success rate, Los Angeles should have enough success on the ground to keep Burrow & Co. off the field.

We’ll take the Chargers (-1.5) as slim home favorites.

Not even the debate about whether Jerry Jones should put up curtains in AT&T Stadium to limit the sun’s glare can make the Cowboys’ season seem interesting.

Dallas has lost all four of its home games by an average of 23 points, Dak Prescott’s season is over and Mike McCarthy has players throwing shade at him publicly, but at least the sun won’t be an issue on Monday night.

The Texans do need to worry about their pass protection. Only two quarterbacks are pressured more often than C.J. Stroud, and the Cowboys did record five sacks against the Eagles last week.

With just one victory by more than six points, Houston has had a hard time winning decisively. The Texans are also coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Lions where they choked away a 16-point lead and got shut out in the second half.

That said, they should get Nico Collins back from the IR this week, and their defense should exploit backup quarterback Cooper Rush. We’ll lay the big number and back Houston (-7.5) to bounce back.