NFL Week 12: Best Spread Bets & Picks

The Steelers gave themselves some cushion in the AFC North with last week’s home win over the Ravens. Despite failing to score a touchdown and getting a shaky performance from Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh kicked six field goals and eeked out an 18-16 win.

The Browns’ bump provided by Jameis Winston proved to be brief, as they have been outscored by 38 points over their last two games. Cleveland’s offense is last in the NFL in yards per play and second to last in expected points added per play.

The Browns’ defensive drop-off from last season has been dramatic, especially when it comes to tackling. Cleveland entered last week ranked 31st in Pro Football Focus’ tackling grading, then got blown out by the offensively-challenged Saints.

The Steelers are playing on a short week and are coming off a physically grueling game, but the Browns are simply too inept and too soft to take advantage of any kind of letdown. Pittsburgh’s defense is also on a roll, allowing more than 20 points just once since Week 4.

We’ll lay the points and side with the Steelers (-3.5) as road favorites.

The Lions destroyed the Jaguars at home last week, scoring 52 points for the second time this season in a game resembling an early-season college football tilt between a national superpower and an FCS opponent.

The Colts gave Anthony Richardson his job back last week, and he rewarded them with a strong performance in a crucial win over the Jets.

As much as Detroit would love to have Aidan Hutchinson, its defense has barely missed a beat without him. The Lions have held three of their last four opponents to 14 points or less and each of their last four opposing quarterbacks to passer rating below 70.

That makes this week’s game a stiffer test for Richardson, who’s tasked with trying to outscore Jared Goff and Detroit’s loaded offense.

Indianapolis is a game out of the AFC’s final wild card spot, but the Colts don’t really feel like a playoff team and don’t have any advantages over Dan Campbell’s juggernaut. Richardson needs more than just one nice performance against a bad team before we trust him against a quality opponent, even if the spread is pretty big.

We’ll wager on the Lions (-7.5) as big road favorites.

The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season last week while Patrick Mahomes failed to cover as an underdog for just the second time in his career.

This week, Kansas City finds itself in an ideal bounce-back spot against the woeful Panthers. Carolina is 2-0 in November, but it’s still bottom-two in EPA per play, success rate, EPA per dropback, EPA per rush attempt and rushing success rate.

Much has been made of the Chiefs’ shaky history covering big spreads, but the Panthers’ woeful defense should help Kansas City score its long-awaited offensive breakout. Furthermore, Bryce Young versus a defense that’s second in DVOA feels like a mismatch.

Give us Kansas City (-11) as a hefty road favorite.

During a week when Tommy DeVito returns as quarterback for the Giants, we’ll be paying attention to the status of Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans, who returned to practice this week. Tampa Bay topped 30 points in his last four games before losing him to a hamstring injury. With Chris Godwin sidelined as well, Evans’ possible return could give the Bucs’ offense a much-needed boost.

It should also help Tampa Bay cover on the road against New York. The Giants’ offense ranks 26th in EPA per play and DeVito put up some ghastly numbers as a rookie last year, including a 23.7 QBR and a staggering 37% pressure-to-sack rate.

There may be some hesitation laying points with a road team on a four-game losing streak, but New York is the worst team the Buccaneers have played since their 51-27 shellacking of the Saints in Week 6.

We don’t expect this one to be quite as lopsided, but with Tampa Bay playing against a truly bad team for the first time in over a month, we are comfortable investing in the Bucs this week.

Give us Tampa Bay (-5.5) as a road favorite.

The Dolphins have vaulted themselves into the fringes of the AFC playoff race with consecutive wins. Their offense has ranked first in EPA per dropback and third in EPA per play and success rate since Tua Tagovailoa’s return from his latest concussion.

They’ll look to keep rolling against a Patriots defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA. While Drake Maye’s encouraging performances over the past few weeks are enticing us to wager against a Miami defense with poor metrics, there are too many issues with New England’s offensive line for us to pull the trigger and take the points.

The Patriots are last in both pass block and run block win rate, and the Dolphins have been the best in the league at preventing red zone touchdowns over their last three games.

We’ll lay the points and wager on Miami (-7) at home.

The Bears were a blocked kick and some questionable clock management away from upsetting the Packers last week, but they still mustered just 19 points in its first game since changing offensive coordinators.

There were some encouraging signs for Chicago, though. Caleb Williams had his second-best completion percentage (74.2%) of the season, and the Bears’ offense ranked top-10 last week in every success rate and EPA metric.

Baby steps maybe, but significant ones. Williams also played well when blitzed, completing eight of his 10 passes – an encouraging sign given that he faces the league’s most blitz-heavy defense this week.

Sam Darnold played well in the Vikings’ win over the Titans last week, but he still has as many interceptions (five) as touchdown passes over his last three games. He could struggle against Chicago, which has the league’s stingiest red zone defense and ranks second in EPA per dropback.

We’re taking a leap of faith that Matt Eberflus doesn’t make some sort of harebrained late-game coaching decision, but getting points with the Bears at home is simply too tempting to pass up.

We’ll bet on Chicago (+3.5) as a home underdog.

If there was anything remotely eyebrow-raising about the Texans’ win in Dallas on Monday night, it’s that it came by more than one score. Only two of Houston’s seven wins have come by more than six points this season.

Maybe the Titans are equally susceptible to a blowout loss, but Will Levis showed signs of improvement last week against the Vikings and the Texans’ offense is just too unreliable to invest in when the number is this big.

Houston ranks 29th in offensive success rate and C.J. Stroud is 33rd in on target percentage. He’s also just 6-10 against the spread in his career as a favorite.

We’ll take the points and Tennessee (+8.5) on the road.

The Jayden Daniels hype train has slowed down a bit after two pedestrian performances in consecutive losses. The average distance of his throws over his last three games has plummeted to 5.3 yards, down from 8.1 yards over his first eight games.

There is no Cooper Rush hype train, but he did throw for 354 yards last week against the Texans. Rush gets to play this week against a Commanders defense that’s below average in nearly every metric.

Betting on the Cowboys comes with obvious risk, but the points are too plentiful to pass up. There’s no reason to sell your imaginary long-term stock in Washington, but it’s a shaky investment right now, especially when a big number is involved.

We’ll hold our noses and bet on Dallas (+10.5) as a sizable road underdog.

The Broncos are coming off of their most complete performance of the season in a lopsided 38-6 win over the Falcons. Bo Nix’s efficiency was the lead story, but Denver’s defense didn’t allow a touchdown and shut out Atlanta in the second half.

The Broncos could be poised for a similar performance against the Raiders, whose offense ranks 30th in passing DVOA and last in rushing DVOA. They’re also last in EPA per play and have scored more than 20 points just once during their six-game losing streak.

Las Vegas is nearly as bad on defense, ranking 28th in dropback success rate and 26th in pass defense DVOA. Nix should continue his improvement and Denver should take another step toward the postseason.

Our bet is on the Broncos (-5.5) as road favorites.

The 49ers lost a game they probably should have won last week, while the Packers won a game they probably should’ve lost.

San Francisco’s injury report is worth paying attention to this week. Brock Purdy exited last week’s loss to the Seahawks with shoulder soreness and Nick Bosa is dealing with hip and oblique issues.

Jordan Love surely wouldn’t mind if Bosa skipped this one, and Green Bay backers wouldn’t mind seeing him play a mistake-free game. He’s thrown an interception in every start this season and leads the NFL in picks. Now he’ll play a team that ranks third in pass defense DVOA.

Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey has eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in his first two games back from injury, and the 49ers are still second in the NFL in points per play despite all of their injuries.

These teams seem pretty evenly matched. One has a QB who’s dealing with soreness, while the other has a QB who can’t stop throwing the ball to the other team. We’ll wager against the latter.

Give us San Francisco (+2.5) as a road underdog.

After winning five of their last six games, the Cardinals are alone in first place in the NFC West. Their offense has ascended to the top 10 in every EPA and success rate metric, helping them hammer their last two opponents by 45 combined points.

The Seahawks are one of three 5-5 teams in the NFC West following last week’s badly-needed comeback win over San Francisco.

Seattle struggles against the run, ranking 25th in rushing success rate on defense. Arizona should be able to exploit that weakness with Kyler Murray and James Conner.

The Seahawks’ defense has also regressed significantly on third down, and the Cardinals’ offense ranks seventh in third down conversion percentage.

Arizona’s defense is flawed, ranking 29th in passing success rate and 31st in pass rush win rate, but Seattle is way too middle-of-the-road to exploit those weaknesses.

Cardinals (+1) is the play here.

For all the talk of Saquon Barkley’s impact on the Eagles’ offense, their success this season can be mainly attributed to Vic Fangio’s steadily improving defense. Since Week 6, Philadelphia has the NFL’s top defense in EPA and success rate.

The Rams have also played well on defense, but this week they’ll face an offensive line that ranks second in pass block win rate. Los Angeles isn’t excelling at anything on offense, and it doesn’t have a player like Barkley to lean on in a game that could be low-scoring.

We’ll side with the Eagles (-2.5) as road favorites.

The Ravens’ offense finally cooled down last week, but their defense played well and has allowed fewer than 20 points in two of their last three games. Despite making numerous mistakes, Baltimore was only one failed two-point conversion away from tying Pittsburgh on the road in the game’s final minutes.

The Chargers have entered the chat in the AFC after four straight wins. Their defense struggled to contain Joe Burrow last week, but their offense erupted for 34 points and 435 total yards – both season-highs.

Los Angeles’s defense has been a strength all season, ranking top-four in both EPA and success rate. The same can’t be said of the Ravens, who rank bottom-10 in both yards and points allowed per game.

Baltimore is also the NFL’s most-penalized team, which could be the difference in a close game.

We’re getting points with the home team here, so we’ll invest in Jim Harbaugh covering against his brother and bet on the Chargers (+3).